Price: steel prices fell this week. This week, the price of 20mm HRB400 thread was 4750 yuan / ton, compared with – 2.1% last week, and the price of hot rolling 3.0mm was 4890 yuan / ton, compared with – 1.4% last week. Raw material price differentiation this week. This week, the price of iron ore in the port rose compared with last week; Coke prices rose compared with last week; Scrap prices fell compared with last week.
Profit: the profit of rebar decreased slightly this week. In terms of long-term process, it is estimated that the gross profit per ton of rebar, hot rolling and cold rolling in the industry this week is – 26 yuan / ton, – 26 yuan / ton and – 17 yuan / ton respectively compared with the previous week. In terms of short process, the profit of electric furnace steel fell this week compared with the previous week.
Output and inventory: this week, the weekly ratio of rebar output increased, the weekly ratio of warehouses of the five major steel plants increased, and the weekly ratio of social warehouses increased. In terms of output, the output of large steel varieties on Friday was 9.25 million tons, up 388200 tons week on week, including 237000 tons of construction steel, 151200 tons of sector and 175700 tons of rebar. In terms of different steelmaking methods, the output of long and short process deformed steel bars this week were 2482900 tons and 252600 tons respectively, and the cycle to cycle ratio was – 10200 tons and + 185900 tons respectively. In terms of inventory, on Friday, the total social inventory of large steel varieties increased by 863000 tons to 175514 million tons, the total inventory of steel mills increased by 6.3816 million tons and 86900 tons, including 797800 tons of rebar social warehouse and 47800 tons of factory warehouse. In terms of apparent consumption, it is estimated that the apparent consumption of rebar this week is 1.8899 million tons, an increase of 244200 tons on a week-on-week basis, and the daily average transaction volume of construction steel this week is 112300 tons, an increase of 50.99% on a week-on-week basis.
Investment suggestion: the steel consumption intensity has gradually increased. It is estimated that the apparent consumption of rebar this week is 1.8899 million tons, up 244200 tons on a week-on-week basis, and the daily average transaction volume of construction steel is 112300 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 50.99%. With the advent of peak season, the superposition of steady growth policies has gradually fermented, and the demand for steel is improving. On the supply side, the limited production of Winter Olympics and heating season continues, and the steel output is released slowly. On the raw material side, coal and iron ore are suppressed by policies, and steel profits are expected to rise. On the whole, the current steel consumption intensity is rising, the supply is released slowly, the coal and iron ore at the raw material end are suppressed by policies, and the raw material price performance may be weaker than that of finished products, supporting the profits of steel mills. Suggestions: 1) ordinary steel sector: Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) ; 2) Special steel sector: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) ; 3) Target of Superalloy: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) ; 4) Target of graphite electrode: Fangda Carbon New Material Co.Ltd(600516) ; 5) Pipe object: Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) .
Risk tip: the demand for real estate steel has fallen precipitously; Steel prices fell sharply; The price of raw materials fluctuated sharply.
