Key investment points
Weekly special summary:
Sauce liquor industry: 1) overview of sauce liquor industry: Sauce liquor has the characteristics of small production capacity and high profit.
In 2021, the production of sauce wine accounted for only 8% of the Baijiu production capacity, but the profit accounted for 46% of the industry. From 2017 to 2021, the revenue scale of sauce and wine industry increased from 90.5 billion yuan to 190 billion yuan, CAGR = 21%, realizing rapid growth. 2) Maotai tropical sauce liquor is hot, and the price growth promotes the high growth of the industry. Driven by consumption upgrading, Maotai fever also drives the popularity of sauce and liquor. Maotai accounts for more than half of the revenue in the sauce and liquor industry, and small and medium-sized sauce and liquor is growing at a high speed. The technological characteristics of sauce and wine give consumers psychological expectations of high added value, high quality and high price. The overall production capacity of sauce and wine is limited, the release is slow, and the price increases rapidly, resulting in high growth of the industry. Moreover, the continuous increase in prices has brought high profits, consumers are in short supply, and the mood of sauce dyeing outside the industry is high. 3) Sauce wine entered the second half of the competition and will focus more on high-quality brand sauce wine. The continuous growth of sauce and wine brings chaos, the heat of sauce wine is facing cooling. Meanwhile, the liquor development trend is similar to that of the baijiu. The second half of the soy sauce wine craze will focus on the consumer experience and gradually focus on the brand. With the brand wine enterprises expanding the production capacity of sauce, the quality sauce wine will be released in the future. Focus on Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , and pay attention to Langjiu and Guotai.
Baijiu reiterates:
Recently, the food and beverage sector has been greatly affected by the epidemic situation and the overseas situation. We believe that the annual report and quarterly report of the Baijiu March will enter the March annual report quarterly. The leading companies are expected to achieve high quality growth. The current estimate is already in a reasonable range, and the disturbance of short-term funds will provide a good opportunity for layout. The Baijiu sector is still strongly recommended.
Plate thinking: high priority Baijiu certainty, embrace the first step of certainty and strong high-end. Pay attention to the positive changes of high-end liquor, such as the optimization of internal operation after the completion of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) personnel and the progress of marketing reform in Maotai, and select sub high-end stocks from the perspective of brand strength, channel profit and regional consumption upgrading. Focus on Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , recommend Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , suggest paying attention to Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) .
Market review this week:
The Shenwan food and beverage index fell 3.89% this week, ranking 24th among 28 Shenwan level industries.
The total number of Companies in the sector is 112, of which 21 are up and 88 are down. From the food and beverage sub sectors, the top three of the sector sales this week were snacks, +1.98%, flavoring fermented products (-0.01%) and soft drinks (-0.37%) sectors. The top three of the decline was Baijiu (-4.84%), health food (-4.13%) and beer (-4.01%).
Risk tips: the macro economy is less than expected, the impact of the epidemic is repeated, the recovery of food demand is less than expected, and food safety problems
