Report guide
The chaotic market environment is the core factor leading to the decline of growth stocks, but I believe that A-share investors who are worried about these factors should have taken action; When these factors fall, the share price of technology stocks has formed a new steady state, or a short-term bottom. We think March will be the beginning of the rise in technology stocks. We stand at the beginning of a new round of scientific and technological innovation cycle. The global economy has entered a new round of development cycle dominated by scientific and technological innovation, and China's science and technology industry will enter an era of accelerated innovation in the future. Considering the performance, hard technology will exceed expectations. It is suggested to pay attention to semiconductor equipment and automotive semiconductors, and pay attention to meta universe and digital economy when the market wind preference turns. Internet policy and performance may be cleared in the first half of the year, and the second half of the year will be buying points.
Key investment points
March will be the beginning of the rise in technology stocks
1) the confusion of overseas policy expectations suppresses growth stocks, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike superimposes the geographical situation and other factors to suppress investors' risk appetite, which will still disturb A-Shares in the short term. 2) I believe that A-share investors who are worried about these factors should have implemented them in action; When these factors fall to the ground, such as raising interest rates, the share price of science and technology stocks has formed a new steady state or a short-term bottom. 3) The prosperity of science and technology industry is still strong, which is the core factor determining the trend of stock price, which determines the rise of science and technology stocks. It is expected that after the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in March, the technology growth stocks greatly affected by liquidity expectations may usher in a rebound opportunity.
Looking for the theme around "scientific and technological innovation" β opportunity
TMT investment strategy is always under the theme β， The excavation of innovation and breakthrough is the most effective way to find the theme.
1) leading innovation is subversive: the essence of science and technology is continuous technological iteration and updating, which will not only replace the stock market, but also create new demand, such as metauniverse / VR / ar.2) product innovation should be faster than system innovation: product innovation is the fastest step in the leapfrog development of enterprises, with strong explosive performance. Such as touch screen, fingerprint identification. 3) Domestic substitution, leak detection and vacancy filling: this substitution not only has the urgency of national important tools, but also brings regional barriers and strong certainty of long-term growth; Such as semiconductor related industrial chain, basic software and other information innovation links.
Hard technology, meta universe and digital economy are the mainstream directions. The Internet waits for the implementation of policies and the inflection point of performance. At present, the dilemma of "lack of core" still exists at the end of the year, and the semiconductor boom is still strong. With the active support of the United States, Europe and Japan for industrial return, China is bound to continue to strengthen the support of the semiconductor industry. Hard technology has become the main direction of performance driven share price rise.
2) as a national top-level design, digital economy is an important policy to help China's high-quality development. It solves the digital divide and makes the data information transparent, so as to realize the function of reducing cost and increasing efficiency; It is the only way for China to change from a large manufacturing country to a powerful manufacturing country and turn to high-quality development; It essentially improves the regulatory power and makes production and cooperation more smooth and effective. Therefore, digital economy is the investment direction determined by long-term high growth. We believe that digital government, intelligent driving and industrial Internet will be the most dynamic investment directions. See our follow-up special report for details.
3) "meta universe" belongs to the subversive concept of the science and technology industry. In essence, it conforms to the change of the Internet industry from "card head" to "card duration", and wants to break the monopoly pattern of mobile phones as the entrance to the Internet. Therefore, both the power of the Internet platform and the support of the industrial chain determine the inevitability of the success of the meta universe.
4) Internet: the policy is suppressed or exhausted in Q1, the enterprise profit is still under pressure in Q1, and Q2 may be the inflection point of current operation. Therefore, waiting for the bottom of policy and enterprise operation, Chinese Internet enterprises will buy some now in the second half of the year.
