Industry dynamic information
Fundamentals tracking: the market recovery after the festival is in line with expectations
According to the statistics of the passenger car Federation, from February 14 to 20, the passenger car market retailed 329000 vehicles (year-on-year + 67%) and wholesale 433000 vehicles (year-on-year + 142%); In that month, 670000 vehicles were retailed (year-on-year – 5%, month on month – 47%) and 790000 vehicles were wholesale (year-on-year + 26%, month on month – 33%).
We believe that the market demand of the retail end will pick up well with the arrival of the car purchase period before the school season. Due to the demand for replenishment at the wholesale end of the manufacturer, the production capacity level will recover rapidly, resulting in the rapid recovery of wholesale sales. We predict that the industry data in February will be more in line with expectations as a whole.
Market tracking: the sector market bottomed out and stabilized, focusing on the repair of pessimistic expectations of the data. So far this year, the sector has been adjusted due to changes in market style and fluctuations in prosperity expectations. This week, the market has rebounded, and the SW auto industry index fell 0.2%, slightly better than the market. Among them, the passenger car and auto parts sectors were + 0.1% and + 0.0% respectively. We believe that from the perspective of marginal changes in the boom trend, the valuation cost performance of the automobile sector gradually appears:
(1) due to the triple factors of low inventory, ease of core shortage and steady growth, the prosperity of the automobile industry is expected to rise in 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of Q2 sales is expected to turn positive, and the boost of consumption in the second half of the year is expected to accelerate the upward trend; (2) The certainty of high demand growth for new energy vehicles is still strengthened, and the endogenous growth momentum of the industry is strong. Strong autonomy such as Byd Company Limited(002594) and weixiaoli continue to benefit from the trend of electrification.
In 2022, the functional configuration of new models will be upgraded again, and the growth space of automobile intellectualization may be accelerated. The growth space of automobile parts industry mainly comes from the increase of single vehicle supporting value brought by the upgraded configuration of consumer functions and pure incremental components of electric intellectualization. In 2021, the new configuration of seats, air suspension, vehicle machine, micro machine and other parts will accelerate the penetration, In 2022, the new configuration application of Tesla‘s new or modified models is expected to continue to strengthen the consumption upgrading trend, and the supporting suppliers are expected to fully benefit from its strong sales performance (Tesla sold 936000 vehicles worldwide in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 87%). In addition, in 2022, the penetration of L2 + level intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit of passenger cars is expected to accelerate, the listing of intelligent configuration of new models may become an important catalyst, and the market’s understanding of intelligent vehicles is expected to be significantly strengthened.
Investment advice: a sector that cannot be underestimated β， Grasp the growth of high-quality targets α The short-term configuration cost performance may gradually appear, which is mainly due to: 1) in the short-term dimension, the sales data in March / April is expected to improve, pessimistic expectations or gradual repair, and the valuation of the sector has been adjusted; 2) The competitiveness of China’s strong independent brand automobile enterprises continues to increase, and the medium and long-term market share promotion trend is relatively clear. In particular, 2022 is expected to usher in a strong new model product cycle; 3) Under the expectation of steady economic growth in 2022, the demand for automobile terminal consumption is expected to improve, the impact of superimposed supply side “lack of core” is weakened, and the boom is expected to accelerate upward in the second half of the year; 4) With the strengthening of consumption attributes and the trend of electric intelligence, the demand for functional upgrading and incremental links of parts is expected to open up new growth space, focusing on the independent breaking of subdivided industries such as seat interior, integrated die casting and connectors. For the whole vehicle, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , etc., and for parts, Tongling Jingda Special Magnet Wire Co.Ltd(600577) , Shanghai Huide Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603192) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ., Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) etc.
Risk tip: the rise of raw materials makes the enterprise’s profit less than expected; The improvement of automobile chip supply did not meet expectations; Automobile consumption demand does not meet expectations;
