Thermal coal: the pit mouth price is basically flat compared with last week, and the international coal price continues to rise.
Power coal comprehensive index cci5500 and long-term cooperative price of power coal: on February 25, the power coal comprehensive index cci5500 was 795 yuan / ton, flat on the week; In February 2022, the long-term cooperative price of thermal coal (q5500) was 725 yuan / ton, which was flat on a monthly basis.
Origin: on February 25, the tax included price of q5500 pit mouth in Datong, Shanxi was 852 yuan / ton, up 2 yuan / ton from February 18 Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) q5500 pithead price including tax is 710 yuan / ton, down 2 yuan / ton from February 18; The price of q5800 thermal coal in Yulin, Shaanxi Province was 766 yuan / ton, unchanged from February 18.
Import: in terms of international thermal coal, on February 24, the price of Ara port in Europe was 195.0 US dollars / ton, down 0.3 US dollars / ton in the week; The price of Rb port in South Africa was 228 US dollars / ton, up 7.6 US dollars / ton this week; The price of NEWC port in Australia was 248.4 US dollars / ton, up 14.7 US dollars / ton this week.
Inventory: Port inventory: on February 25, the coal inventory of northern port was 15.04 million tons, a decrease of 60000 tons compared with February 18. Terminal inventory: on February 24, the inventory of end users in eight coastal provinces was 28.343 million tons, a decrease of 2.922 million tons compared with the same period last week; The available days are 15.1 days, a decrease of 3.6 days compared with the same period last week; The coal supply was 1.724 million tons, an increase of 23000 tons over the same period last week.
Demand: on February 24, the daily consumption of end users in eight coastal provinces was 1.877 million tons, an increase of 208000 tons over the same period last week.
China’s output: on February 20, the total weekly coal output of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia was 27.86 million tons, an increase of 670000 tons on a weekly basis; Among them, the weekly output of coal in Shanxi Province was 9.36 million tons, an increase of 230000 tons on a weekly basis; The weekly output of coal in Shaanxi Province was 6.78 million tons, with a weekly ring ratio increase of 320000 tons; The weekly output of coal in Inner Mongolia is 11.72 million tons, an increase of 120000 tons on a weekly basis. On February 24, Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) city produced 2.827 million tons per day, an increase of 940000 tons over the same period last week.
Coking coal: the average price of coking coal fell, and the upside down cost index of coking coal price narrowed. Average price of coking coal: on February 21, the comprehensive average price of main coking coal was 2412.7 yuan / ton, down 159.7 yuan / ton this week. Among them, the average price of production place was 2338.7 yuan / ton, down 92.2 yuan / ton in the week; The average price of transit land was 2355 yuan / ton, down 165.0 yuan / ton this week; The average price of consumer land was 2574.5 yuan / ton, down 268.6 yuan / ton this week. Imported Coking Coal: in terms of China’s imported coking coal, on February 25, the hard coking coal of Fengjing mine closed at US $420 / ton, unchanged on the week. Coke: on February 24, the coke price index was 2751 yuan / ton, up 125 yuan / ton from February 17; Coke cost index was 3463 yuan / ton, up 72 yuan / ton from February 17; Coke price and cost index are upside down 712 yuan / ton, which is 53 yuan / ton lower than the upside down price on February 17.
Downstream changes: the inventory of coking coal decreased, and the downstream rebar price fell. Coking coal: on February 25, 939.5 million tons of coking coal were stored in the coking coal warehouse of China’s sample steel plant 120000 tons per week, a decrease of 120000 tons; The coking coal storage of China’s independent coking plant is 11.496 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 14000 tons. Downstream steel mills: on February 25, the inventory of rebar in major cities in China was 9.6528 million tons, an increase of 798000 tons per week; The tax inclusive price of 20mm rebar in Shanghai was 4750 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton from February 18.
Futures: Black futures prices fell across the board. Thermal coal futures: on February 25, the closing price of thermal coal futures (active contract) was 74 yuan / ton, down 67 yuan / ton from February 18; The spot market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal (q5500) was 940 yuan / ton, down 60 yuan / ton from February 18; The discount of thermal coal futures is 195 yuan / ton. Coking coal and coke futures: on February 25, the closing price of coke futures (active contract) was 3183 yuan / ton, down 133 yuan / ton from February 18; The closing price of coking coal futures (active contract) was 2511.5 yuan / ton, a decrease of 47 yuan / ton compared with February 18. The price difference of coke and coking coal futures was 671.5 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 86 yuan / ton.
Transportation: the coastal coal freight index rose, and the coal transportation volume of Daqin Line decreased year-on-year. Coastal coal freight rate: on February 25, China’s coastal coal freight rate composite index was 702 points, an increase of 116.7 points compared with February 18; The maritime coal price index was 790 points, an increase of 154.2 points over February 18. Transportation volume of Datong Qinhuangdao railway: in January 2022, the coal transportation volume of Datong Qinhuangdao railway was 34.06 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.22%.
This week’s view: this week, the pit mouth price of the main coal producing area is basically the same as last week. In terms of coal supply, although the coal output of main producing areas has gradually increased, the supply gap is still increasing due to the high international coal price, the upside down of imported coal price and the weakening of the supplementary effect of imported coal. In terms of demand, the downstream continued to resume work and production, the main line of steady growth continued, and the number of days available for terminals continued to decrease. To sum up, it is expected that coal prices will be guided to fluctuate along a reasonable range.
Recommended combination: China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Yankuang energy, power investment energy, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) .
Risk tips: economic growth stalls, coal mines under construction are put into operation beyond expectations, policy regulation risks, upgrading of safety supervision, etc.
