Investment strategy: at present, the steel price level is still higher than that of the same period last year. The implicit expectation is that the supply and demand environment is better than that of the same period last year, but in fact, it is not easy to realize. First of all, after mid March, the intensity of production restriction at the supply side is likely to become loose year-on-year. In March last year, the Ministry of environmental protection made a surprise inspection on the production restriction in Tangshan, resulting in a sudden tightening of the intensity of production restriction in Tangshan after March. This year, it is facing the resumption of production after the winter Paralympic Games. Secondly, in terms of demand, it is difficult to achieve positive year-on-year growth. Because real estate sales remain depressed, short-term new construction is likely to remain weak at the end of last year. If the real estate side contributes – 20% of demand growth, it needs 10-15% of infrastructure and industrial growth to bring the total demand to positive growth. It is indeed possible for infrastructure to have a pulse due to steady growth, but 10-15% is still a growth rate that is not easy to achieve. Industry is more difficult, because at the end of last year, the growth rate of several industrial categories with high steel consumption intensity has dropped to about 5% or less. Under the condition of high base in the first half of 21, it is not easy to achieve positive growth in the peak season this year. Therefore, after March, both sides of steel supply and demand are faced with certain uncertainty. It is suggested to pay attention to the fields and companies of growing new materials, such as Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , etc.
One week market review: this week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.13%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 1.67%, and the Shenwan steel sector fell 1.86%. This week, the main contract of rebar closed at 4617 yuan / ton, a decrease of 162 yuan / ton compared with last week, with a range of 3.39%; the main contract of hot rolled coil closed at 4796 yuan / ton, a decrease of 111 yuan / ton compared with last week, with a range of 2.26%; The main iron ore contract closed at 680.5 yuan / ton, down 4.5 yuan / ton from last week, an increase of 0.66%.
Steel trading volume continues to pick up: the weekly average of national construction steel trading volume this week was 112300 tons, an increase of 3% over the previous week.
790000 tons. The social inventory of the five varieties was 17.552 million tons, an increase of 863000 tons month on month. At present, the pace of downstream has accelerated. Although the trading volume of building materials increased significantly compared with that of last week, it is still weak compared with the same period last year. In terms of inventory, the growth rate of social storage and factory storage slowed down compared with last week, and the water of social storage and factory storage was on average lower than that in the same period last year.
The operating rate of electric furnaces increased significantly: this week, the operating rates of 247 steel enterprises in Mysteel and blast furnaces in Tangshan Steel Plant were 73.44% and 44.44% respectively, with a month on week increase of + 3.74pct and + 7.93pct; This week, the blast furnace capacity utilization rates of 247 Mysteel steel enterprises and Tangshan Steel Plant were 77.61% and 54.17% respectively, with a month on week increase of + 2.17ct and + 2.03pct The operating rate of 71 home appliance arc furnaces this week was 43.89%, with a month on week increase of + 27.93pct; The capacity utilization rate was 44.36%, up from last week’s + 28.73pct In terms of supply, with the substantial increase in the start-up of electric furnace enterprises this week, the steel output increased slightly compared with last week. As the peak season approaches, the operating rate and capacity utilization rate of steel mills are still improving, and there is still room for steel output increment.
Steel prices continued to fall slightly: the myspic comprehensive steel price index decreased by 0.9% month on month, including 0.92% for long materials and 0.87% for sectors. Shanghai rebar 4750 yuan / ton, a decrease of 100 yuan week on week, an increase of 2.06%. Shanghai hot rolled coil 4860 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan / ton from last week, an increase of 1.42%. Steel prices continued the weakening trend of last week, and the core factor is the sluggish actual demand in the downstream. This week, the main raw material double coke futures weakened and dragged down the steel price.
The ore price rose slightly and the delivery volume decreased slightly: platts62%136.95 US dollars / ton this week, with a week-on-week increase of 3.45 US dollars / ton.
Last week, the shipment volume of Australia and Brazil was 194.83 million tons, a month on month decrease of 1.238 million tons, and the arrival volume was 10.214 million tons, a month on month decrease of 1.763 million tons. The latest steel mill imported ore inventory days are 30 days, 5 days less than the last time. Tianjin Zhunyi metallurgical coke was 2810 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week. Scrap steel 3200 yuan / ton, 30 yuan / ton less than last week, scrap steel 3230 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton less than last week. Ore prices rebounded slightly this week after falling sharply under the influence of policies last week. The downstream inventory and consumption data are relatively weak compared with previous years, superimposed with the continuous downturn of real estate. It is expected that iron ore can hardly rise in a trend when there is no obvious improvement on the short-term demand side.
Profit per ton of steel decreased slightly: raw materials fluctuated less this week, and the profit of mainstream steel decreased slightly. According to our simulated steel data, during the week, the ore price at the raw material end increased slightly, the coke price weakened, and the billet cost decreased slightly. The average end circumference price per ton of finished steel fell slightly, and the profit level per ton of steel shrank slightly. Among them, the gross profit of hot rolled coil (3mm) was reduced by 28 yuan / ton, and the gross profit margin was reduced to 9.
\u3000\u Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) %； The gross profit of cold rolled sheet (1.0mm) is reduced by 19 yuan / ton, and the gross profit rate is reduced to 5.79%; The gross profit of deformed steel bar (20mm) is reduced by 27 yuan / ton, and the gross profit margin is reduced to 11.12%; The gross profit of medium and heavy sector (20mm) is reduced by 23 yuan / ton, and the gross profit margin is reduced to 8.12%.
Risk tip: the sharp decline of macro economy leads to pressure on demand; The pressure at the supply end continues to increase.
