Liquidity: in January 2022, the growth difference between M1 and M2 fell to a new low level since 2015. (1) The value of BCI financing environment index in January 2022 was 48.27, a month on month increase of + 2.41%. The high probability of periodic high point has appeared at the end of September 2020 (54.02). According to historical experience, this is not good for the medium and long term of gem index; (2) There is a strong positive correlation between the growth difference of M1 and M2 and the Shanghai Stock Index:
The growth difference between M1 and M2 was – 11.7 percentage points in January 2022, with a month on month ratio of – 6.20 percentage points.
Capital construction and real estate chain: the utilization rate of blast furnace capacity stops decreasing and turns to increasing. (1) Price changes this week: thread – 2.06%, cement price index – 0.10%, rubber – 0.37%, coke + 7.14%, coking coal + 0.00%, iron ore + 4.88%; (2) This week, the national blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, petroleum asphalt and all steel tire operating rate were + 2.17pct, + 2.72pct, -1.10pct and + 19.73pct respectively; (3) This week, the price of nodular cast pipe is 7950 yuan / ton, and the processing fee is 3580 yuan / ton, which is at a high level in recent 10 years.
Real estate completion chain: the profits of flat glass and titanium dioxide increased month on month. (1) The prices of titanium dioxide and glass were + 0.00% and – 0.20% month on month respectively this week; (2) This week, the profit of titanium dioxide was 3106 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 33.95%, and the gross profit of flat glass was 592 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 3.32%; (3) The price of PVC was 905500 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of – 1.18%.
Industrial chain: the operating rate of semi steel tire is at a high level in recent 3 years. (1) Price performance of major bulk commodities this week: the prices of cold rolling, copper and aluminum changed by – 1.07%, – 0.64%, + 0.44% month on month, and the corresponding gross profit changed by – 19.31%, – 0.79%, + 5.67%; (2) This week, the operating rate of semi steel tire in China was 55.29%, with a month on month ratio of + 19.11 percentage points.
Breakdown varieties: the price and profit of electrolytic aluminum continued to rise, close to the highest level of last year. (1) Graphite electrode: the ultra-high power is 24000 yuan / ton, the same as last week; (2) Nickel: the price of this week is 179100 yuan / ton, with a month on week increase of – 0.86%; (3) Stainless steel: the price this week is 20200 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 0.00%; (4) Prebaked anode: the price this week is 5250 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of + 1.94%, and the profit is – 1155 yuan / ton; (5) The price of electrolytic aluminum is 22820 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 0.44%, and the estimated profit is 5175.8 yuan / ton (excluding tax), a month on month increase of + 5.67%; (6) The gross profit of alumina was 673 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 21.92%; (7) Thermal coal: this week’s price is 940 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 6.00%.
Price comparison relationship: the price difference between Xinjiang and Shanghai of rebar is at a high level in recent 6 years. (1) The price ratio of screw thread to iron ore was 5.52 this week; (2) The price difference between hot coil and deformed steel bar on Friday is 110 yuan / ton; (3) The price difference between cold rolled steel and deformed steel bars in Shanghai was 810 yuan / ton on Friday, with a month on month increase of + 40 yuan / ton; (4) The price ratio of electrolytic nickel in stainless steel hot rolling is 0.12, which is at a 10-year low. (5) The price difference between spiral nuts (mainly used in real estate) and deformed steel bars (mainly used in infrastructure construction) reached 200 yuan / ton on Friday, down from – 4.76% last week; (6) The price difference of rebar between Xinjiang and Shanghai was 290 yuan / ton on Friday.
Export chain: the utilization rate of crude steel production capacity in the United States has dropped to the median level in the same period in recent five years. (1) The CCFI composite index of China’s export container freight rate index was 342558 points this week, with a chain comparison of – 2.13%; (2) The utilization rate of crude steel capacity in the United States was 80.10% this week, with a month on month ratio of + 0.30 percentage points, at the median level in the same period in recent five years.
Valuation quantile: this week, the CSI 300 index was – 1.67%, the cyclical sector ranked first in chemical (+ 1.47%), and the quantile of Pb ratio of steel and industrial metals relative to that of Shanghai and Shenzhen (since 2013) was 33.00% and 63.98% respectively; The ratio of Pb in steel sector to Pb in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is currently 0.70, and the highest value since 2012 is 0.90 (reached in August 2017).
Investment suggestions: in the near future, the national water network, underground pipe network and municipal engineering construction policies have made great efforts, and it is suggested to pay attention to the following subjects: Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) ; Recently, the price and profit of electrolytic aluminum are rising, close to the highest level of last year. It is suggested to pay attention to the following subjects: Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) ; According to the report issued on February 24, “both indicators are bullish on the price of gold and pay attention to the allocation opportunities of the gold sector”, at present, the leading position of global gold ETF has reached a two-month high. It is suggested to pay attention to the target Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) .
Risk warning: the risk of correlation failure based on historical data; The risk of government regulation of commodity prices; Risk of poor management of the company.
