Since the outbreak of covid-19 in 2020, many industries, including catering, hotel, tourism, transportation, performing arts and so on, have suffered heavy setbacks. At present, two or three years later, it seems that the "darkest moment" of such industries has passed, and many sectors have performed.
Whether the "epidemic damaged sector" has investment value? Which areas are more worthy of layout? An exclusive interview with a reporter from China fund daily
Shao Zhuo, deputy general manager of Equity Investment Department of CCB fund
Wang Qiwei, fund manager of China Merchants anda
Zhang Hong, fund manager of CITIC Prudential
Gu Yu, Nord fund manager
Zhang Yuan, manager of Yingda Ruisheng fund
Liu Ankun, fund manager of RONGTONG reverse strategy
Dong Kaili, researcher of Boshi fund industry research department
Policy researcher of Equity Research Department of Golden Eagle Fund Jiangxi Jdl Environmental Protection Co.Ltd(688057)
Relevant researchers of Ping An fund research center.
These researchers said that the affected sector of the epidemic is interpreting the market expectation of gradual mitigation of the epidemic and gradual recovery of the service industry. Therefore, it has some performance and may become a main layout line in 2022. However, there is still uncertainty about the recurrence of the epidemic, and investors should pay attention to risks when taking advantage of the layout of relevant funds.
becomes a main layout line in 2022
China Fund News reporter: since the beginning of this year, there has been some performance in the affected sectors of the epidemic. What do you think of this situation? Is the layout an opportunity
Shao Zhuo: since the beginning of the year, aviation, airports, hotels, scenic spots and other sectors damaged by the epidemic have made certain positive gains, which is relatively bright under the background of weak market. In fact, the stock price is driven by expectations. Recently, the epidemic damaged sector is deducting the market expectation of gradual mitigation of the epidemic and gradual recovery of the service industry. However, to some extent, under the background that the epidemic situation is still repeated from time to time and the effect of overseas opening-up remains to be observed, this expectation reflects more leadership relative to the real improvement of fundamentals.
Looking at the investment value of this sector in the short term or the long term, different conclusions will be drawn: in the long term, the epidemic will eventually be controlled or alleviated, and the service industry will eventually recover to varying degrees. Based on the current price, the investment value of the epidemic damaged sector is relatively certain. However, from the perspective of short-term annual or quarterly earnings, it is also faced with the disturbance of many uncertain factors. When the rhythm of epidemic control and industry recovery is difficult to be achieved overnight, the sector's excess earnings may be difficult to sustain in the long term.
Wang Qiwei: since this year, the transportation and social service sectors damaged by the epidemic have performed relatively well. We believe that the epidemic has lasted for two years. Even if there is repetition, the marginal recovery after the epidemic is a high probability event, and there is an opportunity for reverse layout.
Zhang Hong: since this year, the epidemic recovery sector has performed well, including hotels, aviation, tourism and other sectors, which have achieved relatively good positive returns. In the long run, the investment in this sector is a direction worthy of attention. We look at the situation in the United States and Europe. At present, the United States and Europe have basically achieved access, and all aspects are also developing in the direction of normalization. The epidemic situation in China, although repeated, is also stable and good. In the long run, the main line of epidemic recovery is worthy of attention.
Gu Yu: optional consumer industries with negative impact of covid-19 epidemic in the first two years have performed commendably this year. Hotels, catering, tourism and airports, as typical segments of optional consumption, generally outperformed the CSI 300 index, and a considerable number of individual stocks achieved positive returns.
The rebound of the affected industries is mainly related to the changes in the current situation of the epidemic. According to the data reported by the National Health Commission on February 24, the number of covid-19 vaccinations in China exceeded 3.1 billion; Moreover, covid-19 vaccine sequential booster immunization is started. The research data show that homologous booster immunization and sequential booster immunization can further improve the immune effect. In terms of covid-19 specific drugs, Pfizer's small molecule drug paxlovid and mosadon's small molecule drug molnupiravir have good curative effects, and both obtained the emergency use authorization from the US FDA at the end of last year. After the Spring Festival this year, the China food and drug administration also announced the emergency conditional approval for the import registration of Pfizer paxlovid; In addition, there are many covid-19 specific drugs under development outside China. The combination of mask + vaccine + specific drugs is an effective way to deal with the epidemic. Professor Zhang Wenhong also said that this may be the last cold winter of covid-19 pandemic.
From the perspective of investment, the industry damaged by the epidemic is an investment in time for space. At present, it is still an opportunity for long-term layout.
Zhang Yuan: covid-19 epidemic has spread all over the world for two years. China's economy has been affected to varying degrees. The prominent sectors damaged by the epidemic mainly include accommodation and catering, airport aviation, logistics, media and other industries. Since this year, compared with the overall correction of the equity market, these epidemic damaged sectors have a relative excess return, especially in the consumer service industry and transportation industry, including accommodation and catering.
There are four main reasons for this situation: first, the covid-19 epidemic has gradually developed with new characteristics. The spread of the epidemic has spread from multiple places to regional concentration, and the spread radius is smaller than before. At the same time, the development of vaccines and specific drugs outside China has made some progress, and the impact of the subsequent epidemic on the industry as a whole is expected to be weakened;
Second, after the second half of 2021, the operating performance of some industries affected by the epidemic did recover in the financial statements;
Third, at the national policy level, the state has launched many assistance policies to promote the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry, which has boosted national consumption;
Fourth, the above industries have been adjusted for quite some time in the early stage, and the valuation has a safer margin. Therefore, at the beginning of this year, although under the pressure of multiple factors such as the slowdown of China's economic growth, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and international tensions, there was a large correction in the A-share market, and the industries damaged by the epidemic may have positive returns or small correction.
Dong Kaili: since the beginning of this year, the sectors damaged by the epidemic (such as airlines, hotels and Tourism) have performed better because institutional funds poured in from the crowded growth track and the nature of market game is heavy. The national policy clearly supports the tourism industry, and its prerequisite is to ensure that the epidemic situation is controllable and residents' health. Therefore, the fundamentals of the short-term epidemic injured sector will not reverse rapidly, and it is not recommended to participate in market speculation.
Jiangxi Jdl Environmental Protection Co.Ltd(688057) : since December last year, hotels, tourism, aviation and other industries in post epidemic repair related fields began to rise in a shares, although they were still facing the impact of the intensification of the outbreak of the new strain of Omicron.
It can be seen that the market is more about the relaxation of China's epidemic prevention policy after the Winter Olympic Games and even the two sessions, as well as the rush layout. In the future, China will get out of the haze of the epidemic. However, at present, whether it is China's dynamic clearing policy or whether the epidemic can be eliminated driven by vaccines and specific drugs, it is difficult to judge whether there will be significant changes in 2022.
In addition, from March to April, A-Shares may usher in the performance disclosure period of the annual report and the first quarterly report. If the rising post epidemic repair field does not see performance improvement, it is relatively difficult for relevant industries to make further breakthroughs in the rising space on the basis of the existing 20% increase.
Ping An fund research center: with the increasing global vaccination rate, the continuous listing of oral covid-19 drugs and the decline in the pathogenicity of new variants of viruses, according to the who, the covid-19 pandemic may end this year, countries around the world have basically opened their doors one after another, and the mobility of personnel factors is no longer limited. Therefore, the relevant sectors damaged by the epidemic in the early stage may usher in a good opportunity for performance repair this year, especially some undervalued varieties are worth participating in the layout.
epidemic progress becomes a key factor
China Fund News reporter: what factors affect the trend of the epidemic damaged sector, and what do you think of the positive and negative factors? Which factor is the most important
Shao Zhuo: the most important driving factor for the follow-up trend of the affected sector of epidemic situation is the progress of epidemic control. How to balance precise prevention and control with the recovery of the service industry is a difficult problem and the key to the recovery of the service industry.
Wang Qiwei: is mainly affected by three factors, including epidemic and epidemic prevention related events, operation and production data and performance. The sensitivity of stock price to the three factors is ranked from high to low. As the epidemic situation repeatedly affects the performance fulfillment and the posterior of operation and production data, in the short term, the trend is the most sensitive to the epidemic situation and epidemic prevention and relief policy events outside China, and there are situations of strengthening good and weakening bad in stages; In the medium and long term, we believe that the stock price is still related to the changes in the competitiveness and growth center of the sector after the epidemic.
Dong Kaili: airlines are affected by passenger flow, oil price and exchange rate. At present, they are all bad and important; The hotel is mainly affected by the passenger flow, which is reflected in the house price, occupancy rate and the number of new stores.
Zhang Yuan: Yingda fund will consider the whole of its own investment system when investing in the above sectors, focusing on the improvement of operation and the safety margin of relative valuation. At present, negative factors still exist, mainly due to the uncontrollable variation of covid-19 virus, and the impact of new viruses in the future is still uncertain; The trend of overall deregulation overseas is irresistible, which may have a certain impact on China's epidemic prevention policy; The industrial chain of some industries in the manufacturing industry and the compressive toughness of the supply chain are still uncertain.
However, we believe that adverse factors cannot stop the repair trend of long-term repression. On the one hand, the national epidemic prevention capacity, response speed, vaccination rate and personnel's awareness of epidemic prevention are high, and the response to point outbreaks is strong; On the other hand, the mutual and self-help of industries, the innovation of post epidemic business model and the adaptation of enterprises to the new needs under the new normal have also brought about the improvement of enterprises' operation; In addition, the policy's stimulus to consumption will also provide a certain guarantee for the reversal of the plight of enterprises damaged by the epidemic.
Gu Yu: I think the trend of the epidemic damaged industry is related to the progress of the epidemic, vaccines and specific drugs on the one hand, and China's overall consumption willingness and consumption ability on the other.
From the perspective of epidemic situation, covid-19 virus continues to repeat and mutate. Omicron virus strain is highly infectious, but the mortality rate is greatly reduced. From the perspective of vaccine, covid-19 vaccine has exceeded 3.1 billion times in China, and covid-19 vaccine has successively strengthened the initiation of immunization, and the effect of immune barrier is expected to continue to maintain. From the perspective of specific drugs, small molecule drugs have high cost performance. Pfizer's paxlovid and mosadon's molnupiravir are both varieties with good effects and have obtained the emergency use authorization of the US FDA. Pfizer's paxlovid has also obtained the import registration of the China food and drug administration; In addition, a number of small molecule drugs in China and abroad are in the state of R & D and emergency use authorization, and neutralizing antibodies are also developed by a number of pharmaceutical enterprises outside China, many of which have obtained emergency use authorization. At present, we are in a post epidemic era in which the epidemic situation, vaccination and waiting for specific drugs coexist. From the current situation, it is a high probability event to control the epidemic situation all over the world, which only takes time.
On the other hand, with the gradual end of the epidemic in the near future, the pent up consumer demand is expected to be released; At the same time, the economic recovery has also restored the consumption capacity of residents. Therefore, I am optimistic about these optional consumer industries damaged by covid-19 epidemic in the medium and long term.
Zhang Hong: the trend of epidemic recovery sector mainly depends on the development of the epidemic and the progress of the government's relaxation of epidemic control measures. When Hong Kong's epidemic control is in place and China's epidemic control is better, the performance of the Hong Kong sector is expected to be better. In the follow-up, we need to track the degree of continuous relaxation of national epidemic control measures.
Liu Ankun: good: first, covid-19 virus is mutating, and the death rate of Omicron is decreasing. It is speculated that the variation of subsequent viruses may have marginal improvement. Second, the vaccination rate in various countries is rising, with more than 90% in some countries. Covid-19 virus drugs are also being developed and launched. Some European countries have liberalized travel visas, and we will gradually liberalize them in the future, both in China and abroad. Against this background, the capital market has also begun to pay attention to the sectors damaged by the epidemic.
negative factors: China's epidemic situation is repeated. Because China implements the policy of dynamic clearing, there is uncertainty in the recovery rhythm of relevant sectors. At present, positive factors dominate.
Jiangxi Jdl Environmental Protection Co.Ltd(688057) : in the long run, there may be favorable factors in the fields related to post epidemic rehabilitation, including the intensification of the epidemic, the clearance of small and medium-sized enterprises in the industry, which may be conducive to the increase of the market share of leading enterprises, and the opening of the post epidemic may usher in a significant boost of relevant demand after nearly three years of demand suppression.
However, in the short term, as investors, we still need to see various uncertainties: first, in the face of the epidemic prevention tone of putting people's lives first, the adjustment of China's epidemic prevention policy may be a relatively conservative and slow process; Second, the Shanghai epidemic prevention model has been replicated and popularized throughout the country, which poses a great challenge to the management and implementation ability of major, small and medium-sized cities; Third, after Omicron, new types of mutant strains may still have an impact on the policy adjustment of various countries. The epidemic situation is still the most important factor.
Ping An fund research center: in addition to the positive factors of the virus itself and medicine, the most important thing is the change form of China's epidemic prevention policy, such as when and how to loosen the epidemic prevention policy. In addition, it is equally important whether the residents' travel and Consumption Willingness can return to the pre epidemic situation.
If these factors are developing in a good direction, they are all good, otherwise they are all bad.
airlines, hotels, catering and tourism are favored
China Fund News reporter: among the sectors damaged by the epidemic, which segments do you prefer? Why
Shao Zhuo: relatively optimistic about the aviation and hotel sectors. During the epidemic period, the supply of the hotel industry was cleared to a certain extent, some monomer Hotels with weak business strength closed and withdrew, and the proportion of hotel chain was further increased. The logic of aviation is similar. During the epidemic period, the full price ceiling of some routes is still raised as usual, which means that the profit ceiling will be raised in the future. At the same time, the suspension of the purchase of new aircraft has improved the performance elasticity after the recovery of demand.
Zhang Yuan: among the sectors damaged by the epidemic, we are more optimistic about catering services that can meet the new needs of the post epidemic market, wholesale and retail and relevant manufacturing industries that can repair the profit statement caused by the decline in the upstream cost of the industrial chain in the recovery of the epidemic. We pay attention to the repair of enterprise fundamentals and the safety margin of enterprise valuation.
Gu Yu: hotel. After a golden decade in previous years, the hotel industry as a whole is in a state of serious oversupply. In recent years, the average house price has remained almost unchanged, but the cost expenditure has increased rapidly, and the industry has entered a stage of continuous liquidation. The continuous epidemic has accelerated the clearing speed of small and medium-sized hotels. Several leading hotels in the industry have expanded rapidly by relying on the asset light mode of joining, the chain rate has been continuously improved, and the hotel structure is constantly optimized. From the demand side, whether it is business or tourism, the demand for hotels during the epidemic is significantly restrained. Once there is a significant recovery, it can be released with great flexibility.
Catering. The scale of China's catering industry is huge, but compared with developed countries such as the United States and Japan, the chain rate of China's catering industry is still low. During the epidemic period, leading enterprises opened stores against the trend, and the chain rate and concentration of the industry are expected to accelerate. With the rapid development of supply chain, the standardized replication ability of catering enterprises has also been strengthened. The early development of the epidemic has a great drag on the catering industry. At present, the epidemic in China is basically under control, and the painful period of the catering industry is expected to end gradually.
Travel. The steady progress of covid-19 specific drugs and vaccines outside China, the continuous introduction of policies to stimulate consumption and domestic demand, and the gradual recovery of tourism travel. After the recovery of passenger flow, the performance elasticity of Chinese scenic spots is relatively significant. Under the expectation of relaxing the entry-exit policy, outbound tourism will also be repaired. From the medium and long-term perspective, the demand proportion of immersive leisure tourism, high-end vacation tourism and parent-child tourism is expected to continue to increase.
Zhang Hong: personally, the airport is the direction that can be focused on. Because the airport is seriously damaged by the epidemic, if the international passenger flow is liberalized and the tax-free business income is increased, the flexibility will be relatively large.
Liu Ankun: focus on sub areas: hotels, tourist attractions, duty-free, airports. At present, the future profit elasticity of airports is greater; On the whole, the hotel has exceeded the stock price position before the epidemic, and the future space is limited. Some leading stocks are expected to increase the market share.
Wang Qiwei: we are optimistic about the industries whose competition pattern has been optimized in the epidemic, which is manifested in the overall deleveraging and the counter trend expansion of leading companies. At the same time, the growth center after the epidemic and the long-term ceiling rise to the top.
Therefore, we are more optimistic about the hotel sector. During the epidemic period, according to yingdie and other data, the number of hotel rooms will be reduced by 20% from 2020 to 2021. At the same time, the leaders of listed hotel groups have successively formulated a medium-term plan to double the number of stores, resulting in the double improvement of chain rate and concentration in the industry; At the same time, the hotel has the multiplication effect of volume and price in the post epidemic recovery stage and the valuation elasticity of the recovery cycle. In addition to service consumption, we are relatively optimistic about food segments with a high degree of chain, such as brine, and there are some positive changes in the leader.
Jiangxi Jdl Environmental Protection Co.Ltd(688057) : in the epidemic repair section, relatively more attention is paid to aviation. On the one hand, international exchanges and other overseas directions should be the earliest and fastest adjustment of epidemic prevention policies. Compared with the needs of Chinese restaurants and hotels, although it has not been repaired to the level before the epidemic, in fact, it has been slowly repaired after the epidemic in 2020, and then the overseas business field may usher in the early stage of repair, and the repair space may be more obvious; On the other hand, after the heavy asset industry is facing the industry liquidation stage, the recovery time of new capacity is often slow, so existing enterprises can strive for more lasting performance growth in a long time.
Ping An fund research center: one is the airport. After the change of epidemic prevention policy, the travel demand of residents is expected to return to the level before the epidemic, at least matching the current economic level, so the airport can turn from a large loss into a profit; Second, catering tourism. Catering with brand characteristics and high-quality tourism may be gradually restored under the change of epidemic prevention policy; Third, duty-free supermarkets. The demand for shopping under the residential line still exists. Once the policy is liberalized, these demands will certainly increase compared with the demand during the epidemic.
pay attention to risk control in fund layout
China Fund News reporter: if investors take advantage of the investment theme of fund layout, how should they layout? What risks need to be paid attention to
Shao Zhuo: epidemic damaged sector is a relatively subdivided track in the service industry. The number of listed companies and market value capacity are relatively limited. Actively managed funds usually only partially invest in this direction. From the perspective of position consistency, ETF funds matching this theme can also be considered.
Wang Qiwei: you can pay attention to the stock selection thinking and timing ability of fund managers. Reverse thinking is necessary in the post epidemic sector. In addition, investors need to measure whether they earn money from the simple post epidemic repair of one-time signal mechanism or the improvement of the long-term competitiveness of good post epidemic companies, which determines their holding period, At the same time, pay attention to the matching degree between the later valuation and the marginal improvement of fundamentals.
Zhang Yuan: through the investment theme of fund layout, we still need to pay attention to uncontrollable risks such as epidemic situation and policies, and pay attention to diversifying investment.
Gu Yu: first, have the thinking of long-term investment. The volatility brought by the short-term game in the stock market will be large, and the investment value of this industry or company will be reflected in the medium and long term. Especially for the optional consumer industry with damaged investment epidemic, it is an investment that changes time for space, and fixed investment is also a better method.
Secondly, we should diversify investment. As the saying goes, don't put your eggs in one basket. For the optional consumer industry with investment damaged by the epidemic, there are still uncertain factors such as repeated epidemic, and decentralized investment helps to reduce risks.
Thirdly, have a reasonable rate of return expectation. Including optional consumption, the overall trend of the consumer industry is stable and upward in the long term, and there is little probability of high elasticity in the short term. This year, the overall equity market is also facing risk factors such as the Fed's interest rate hike and geopolitics. With reasonable rate of return expectation and long-term holding, the rate of return is more likely.
Liu Ankun: these sectors have corresponding ETFs, and investors can participate through ETFs. However, investors should also pay attention to risks, especially after the return of stock prices, they should cash in their earnings in time. Most companies in these sectors have limited investment value in the long run.
Ping An fund research center: epidemic situation and changes in epidemic prevention policies are relatively professional. Fund investors should give full trust to fund managers with relative knowledge. It is suggested to actively intervene when relevant sectors are still low and prepare for medium and long-term investment. In terms of risk, it is mainly the development of the epidemic and the change of epidemic prevention policies. Investors need to be patient and have confidence in China and even the world to overcome the epidemic.
