This week, the Chinese and American stock markets showed structural differentiation. The US stock index fell 0.06%, the S & P 500 rose 0.82% and the NASDAQ rose 1.08%. The geopolitical conflict pushed the oil distribution price above US $98 / barrel. In the Chinese market, A-Shares rose and fell, with the Shanghai index falling 1.13%, the Shenzhen component index falling 0.35% and the gem index rising 1.03%. In terms of industry, electrical equipment (4.25%), national defense and military industry (3.05%) and electronics (2.45%) led the increase; Architectural decoration (- 6.53%), building materials (- 6.50%) and media (- 4.26%) led the decline.
macro liquidity expectations are being repaired from the external environment, with the panic caused by geopolitics and concerns about the risk of medium-term US economic recession, the market is reassessing the rhythm of the Fed's interest rate hike. At present, the 50bp interest rate hike in March is becoming the consensus expectation of the market again. In China, the central bank's recent open market operation has increased significantly, which also suggests that the pace of monetary policy may be faster than the consensus expectation of the market.
annual report performance window period is an opportunity for the market to move from chaos to order since 2017, the correlation between the increase of A-share market and the change of profit expectation has increased significantly in the window period of annual report, first quarter report and interim report disclosure, but it shows a trend of shock or even decline in the performance vacuum period. From the past market performance, with the market gradually returning to calm after the turbulent period at the beginning of the year, the press conference of the annual report and the first quarterly report often becomes an important opportunity to promote the upward movement of the market center through the performance fulfillment of the high growth sector. This effect is particularly prominent from March to April.
the stabilization of risk appetite is expected to promote the recovery of market sentiment in the second quarter in the early stage, affected by the seasonal factors of the Spring Festival, combined with concerns about overseas inflation, geopolitics and other factors, the market sentiment fell sharply. Recently, with the gradual recovery of transactions after the festival and the gradual landing of superimposed risk events, the market sentiment has shown obvious signs of stabilization and recovery. With the two sessions approaching, the market's focus on policy hotspots continues to heat up, which will also boost the continuous improvement of sentiment. After the sentiment bottomed out in history, the market can often usher in a quarterly level market.
style correction market is starting for the core driving force of this round of market, we believe that it mainly comes from the window period of the annual report. The market returns to grasp the fundamentals and superimposes the phased repair of macro liquidity expectations and emotions. In such an environment, the boom track leader with large adjustment range in the early stage and high performance fulfillment will usher in a round of restorative market, which we call style correction market. Structurally, we still emphasize that prosperity is the best defense. At present, the prosperity track leaders such as new energy, semiconductor, medicine and military industry that focus on performance and can be determined to be fulfilled are expected to usher in phased repair. On the other hand, actively allocate the necessary consumption sectors highly related to profitability and inflation, including agriculture, textile and clothing, light industry, social services, retail, catering, shipping and other industries that benefit from the liberalization of policies after the epidemic, which will become the main line throughout the year. In addition, in this year's fast rotating market environment, investors with high risk preference can follow the credit cycle and actively participate in the rotating trading opportunities of industries with high probability of profit inflection points in the upward stage of the credit cycle, such as construction, building materials, auto parts, home appliances and media.
risk tips
Geopolitical conflicts exceeded expectations, Sino US trade frictions exceeded expectations, and the pace of policy promotion was lower than expected.
