The "law" of buying new energy vehicles has been broken. Affected by the rising price of raw materials, the decline of subsidies and the shortage of chips, consumers have to bear higher costs when buying cars.
Since the end of last year, a number of new energy vehicle enterprises, including Tesla, Byd Company Limited(002594) and Xiaopeng, have announced price increases, mainly ranging from 3000 yuan to 8000 yuan, and the price of models has increased by more than 20000 yuan.
Recently, the reporter of securities times · e company visited the offline stores of new energy vehicles and learned that some vehicle enterprises that have not yet raised the price adopt the "limited time and guaranteed price" policy. However, after entering March, the costs caused by the decline of subsidies will no longer be borne by the manufacturers, and the price increase is imminent.
In the future, will more new energy vehicle enterprises join in the price increase? Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the national passenger car market information joint committee, said in an interview with the reporter of securities times · e company: "The price increase action changes with the decline of subsidies, the rise of lithium ore prices and the requirements of battery enterprises for price negotiation. In the near future, some enterprises may have price adjustment, or adjust the price system by launching new models. This is actually a normal measure."
In addition, under the pressure of multiple costs, some car companies choose to stop receiving orders. On the evening of February 23, Dong Yudong, CEO of Euler brand, issued a statement saying that at present, black and white cats just stopped receiving orders and did not stop production, and Euler is actively seeking solutions. According to the statement, after the sharp rise in the price of raw materials in 2022, the black cat lost more than 10000 yuan per unit, bringing huge losses to the company.
From the current sales data, new energy vehicles have a good start, but the impact of price rise on sales remains to be verified. "According to the delivery cycle, the impact of the price increase will probably be reflected in March and April. The pressure will be greater in the week or two when the price increase is first announced. In the follow-up, we are still optimistic about the sales volume." A person from a new power enterprise in car manufacturing told reporters that the price rise itself is still based on the enterprise's confidence in on-hand orders and subsequent orders.
store visit: some models want to raise prices in March
With the rise of raw material prices and the news of declining subsidies for new energy vehicles, various new energy vehicle manufacturers have officially announced price increases. The rear drive versions of Tesla Model 3 and model y increased by 10000 yuan and 21000 yuan respectively; The Dynasty and Ocean series models of Byd Company Limited(002594) increased by 1000 yuan to 7000 yuan; The price of all Xiaopeng cars increased by 4300 yuan to 5900 yuan. According to incomplete statistics, more than ten new energy vehicle enterprises have announced price increases.
In the rising sound, what is the real new energy vehicle market. The reporter of securities times · e company recently visited some offline stores of new energy vehicles in Shanghai and found that the brand stores that have not announced the price increase are more lively, while the brand stores that have completed the price increase are slightly calm.
"Many people have come to see the car recently. We are still more concerned about when the price will rise. We will keep the original price these days." Even on weekdays, there are still an endless stream of customers coming to see the car. FAW Volkswagen store staff told reporters that they will still enjoy the national subsidy of 18000 yuan before February 28. "Since February 11, the insurance subsidy has been reduced by 3000 yuan. The state subsidy of the factory will end at the end of February, and then it will rise by 5400 yuan, which is equivalent to 8400 yuan." The staff member calculated an account, "although there is no formal notice, the price will rise from next month. If you buy a car, it is recommended to book the car before February 28. If you buy it one day late, you may need to pay thousands of yuan more."
Coincidentally, the sales staff of Euler brand also revealed to reporters that the price may rise in March. EULA stores are equipped with Yilabao with the content of car purchase policy: users who buy EULA good cat and good cat gt from January 1, 2022 to February 28, 2022 will save up to 5400 yuan of downhill subsidy, the cost will be borne by the manufacturer, and users will enjoy the same comprehensive subsidy price as that in 2021. The salesperson stressed to the reporter that this is a time limit policy, and the time is up to the end of this month. In order to cope with the impact of the declining subsidy, the store also launched some lucky draw activities, including presenting beauty gift boxes, flowers, monthly cards, etc.
For the price issue, the salesperson said: "the price rise is definitely going to rise, but I'm not sure when the price will change. Maybe we get a notice this morning and the price will rise in the afternoon. This is a matter of minutes. It's probably impossible to maintain this price in March."
In addition, the reporter noted that only good cat models were displayed in Euler stores, and the previously popular white cat and black cat models were missing. On February 14, Euler brand sent the notice that black cat and white cat stopped receiving orders to the terminal, which triggered speculation of shutdown. "Black and white cats stopped receiving orders, not stopping production. We did encounter difficulties."
On February 23, Dong Yudong, CEO of Euler brand, said in a statement that although Euler brand has the advantages of industrial chain behind it, this fashionable and people-friendly car still brings huge losses to the company. Take black cat as an example. After the sharp rise in raw material prices in 2022, Euler black cat lost more than 10000 yuan per unit. In addition, the orders of black and white cats that have not yet delivered new cars to users due to lack of core and power have exceeded 20000. If orders continue to be received, the delivery of new orders will wait until the second half of 2022.
many factors give birth to the price rise tide
From the perspective of store visits, most manufacturers attribute the direct reason for the price increase to the decline of subsidies. On December 31, 2021, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued the notice on the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 2022. In 2022, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles (non operating vehicles) will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021, and the new policy will be implemented from January 1, 2022.
According to the new subsidy policy in 2022, the subsidy will be reduced by 3900 yuan for pure electric passenger vehicles that meet the requirements of "300 km ≤ endurance mileage < 400 km"; For pure electric passenger vehicles that meet the requirements of "mileage ≥ 400 km" and the price does not exceed 300000 yuan, the subsidy will be reduced by 5400 yuan; The subsidy for plug-in hybrid (including add-on program) passenger cars will be reduced by 2040 yuan.
Outside the policy level, the rising price of raw materials and the shortage of chips have raised the production costs of car enterprises. "The reasons behind the price rise also include the rise in the purchase price of batteries and the rise in the price of raw materials. Many power battery enterprises have announced the rise in the price of batteries. In addition, the lack of cores has also increased the purchase cost of chips. In order to solve the chip problem, some car enterprises have to buy chips at a high price in the market." Zhang Xiang, an auto industry analyst, said in an interview with a reporter from the securities times · e company.
Zhang Xiang also mentioned that the price increase is also a means for car enterprises to adjust the contradiction between supply and demand. "If a model sells well, in the state of short supply, car enterprises will choose to increase the price to obtain greater profits. At present, there are indeed a small number of models in short supply in the market, and the delivery cycle takes two or three months, so the price increase range is relatively high. Some car enterprises do not dare to increase the price and choose to absorb the pressure of rising costs."
In addition, the prices of raw materials nickel, manganese, cobalt and lithium for power batteries are rising, especially lithium carbonate. According to the data released by benchmark mineral intelligence, the benchmark mineral intelligence agency, from January 2020 to January 2022, the prices of battery grade cobalt, nickel sulfate and lithium carbonate increased by 119%, 55% and 569% respectively.
In ternary material batteries, the cost of cathode materials containing lithium, cobalt, nickel and other metal elements accounts for nearly 50% of the cost of battery materials.
"The rising speed of raw material prices exceeded expectations, resulting in some enterprises' cost reduction speed not keeping up with the rising speed of raw material prices, especially the rising price of lithium ore. therefore, the price of batteries has also been adjusted accordingly. Car enterprises and battery enterprises cannot bear this cost alone, and some costs may be shared by consumers." Cui Dongshu pointed out to reporters.
the impact of price increase on sales remains to be verified
The decline of new energy subsidies and the rise in prices of automobile enterprises have also triggered concerns about the sales of new energy vehicles. The data in January showed that most car companies handed over a good report card. However, according to the order and delivery cycle, the impact of the price increase may not be truly reflected until March and April.
Specifically, the output of new energy vehicles in Byd Company Limited(002594) January was 91736, an increase of 309.66% year-on-year; The sales volume was 93168, with a year-on-year increase of 361.73%. Xiaopeng delivered 12922 new cars, a year-on-year increase of 115%, exceeding 10000 for five consecutive months. Ideal cars delivered 12268 ideal one in January, with a year-on-year increase of 128.1%, with more than 10000 units delivered for three consecutive months. Weilai automobile delivered 9652 new cars in January, a year-on-year increase of 33.6%. Nezha delivered 11009 vehicles in January, a year-on-year increase of 402%. The delivery volume of Zero run vehicles reached 8085 in January, a year-on-year increase of 434%.
The reporter learned through the interview that some auto enterprises are optimistic about the impact of the price rise on sales. "We chose to raise the price in the window period of declining subsidies, mainly based on the current sufficient orders on hand and confidence in subsequent orders." A person from a new car making enterprise told reporters that the current order saturation exceeds the current effective production capacity. Therefore, they believe that the price increase will not have a great impact on the demand side. However, the person also believes that the impact of price rise does exist, and it still needs to be observed for some time whether it can maintain high sales growth.
Cui Dongshu believes that the price increase still has a certain impact on new energy vehicles, especially in the early stage, consumers do not fully accept the price increase, which will lead to a significant decline in the order volume. "The sales volume in February is generally good now, but after all, the decline of subsidies and the decline of consumers' purchasing power have formed a common pressure, which will affect the overall sales volume in the future." Cui Dongshu told reporters.
According to the data of the Federation of passenger cars, in January, the new energy passenger car market was diversified. There were 11 enterprises whose wholesale sales exceeded 10000 vehicles, an increase of 6 over the same period. With the decline of new energy subsidies and the rise of raw material prices, the price fine-tuning of some models in the early stage has led to a short downturn in orders, and the price acceptance of new energy vehicles has recovered after the Spring Festival. In addition, many new energy vehicles still have a backlog of undelivered orders in the early stage, so the sales volume of new energy vehicles in February will not be significantly affected by the decline.
In addition, from the general trend of the development of new energy vehicles, the sales volume and penetration rate are increasing. In January this year, the wholesale volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 411000, a year-on-year increase of 141.4%; Retail sales reached 347000, a year-on-year increase of 132%. Among them, the wholesale sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 333000, a year-on-year increase of 130.4%; The sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 79000, with a year-on-year increase of 202.1%. In January, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers reached 19%, an increase of 10 percentage points compared with the penetration rate of 8.4% in January 2021.
entry level models affected or maximum
The impact of price rise on the market will gradually appear in the future, and the impact of price rise on different models is differentiated. "We haven't seen the impact of the price increase on us. We announced the price increase earlier, and consumers seem to have accepted it." The staff of a Tesla experience store in Shanghai told reporters that since the beginning of the year, the number of orders has been flat month on month, or even increased slightly. Consumers pay more attention to the configuration and performance of products.
Cui Dongshu told the reporter of securities times · e company that the impact of price rise on high-end models is not particularly large, but on entry-level models. "The proportion of batteries in the cost of entry-level models is relatively high, resulting in the rise of raw materials, which may have greater interference on entry-level models. Reducing costs in other configurations is difficult to offset the pressure of rising battery costs." Cui Dongshu said.
In fact, rising prices also challenge consumers' acceptance and sensitivity to rising prices. Zhang Xiang also believes that the decline of subsidies and the increase of prices have a great impact on economical cars. For example, for cars with a price of less than 100000 yuan, car owners may be more sensitive to the price, and the increase of prices will directly affect the willingness to buy cars. For cars with a price of more than 200000, the owner's purchasing power is relatively strong, his tolerance for the price may be stronger, and the range of price increase is relatively easy to accept.
"Some high-end models have increased significantly, mainly because they can't get subsidies. This price increase belongs to policy adjustment. For this kind of models, the price increase within 10000 yuan is basically within the reasonable expectation range. At present, consumers can accept the small price increase. In addition, our early orders have accumulated to a certain extent, which won't have much impact for the time being." The staff of a Xiaopeng auto store in Shanghai told reporters that at the same time, the store will appropriately benefit consumers through points adjustment and other policies. Byd Company Limited(002594) the salesperson also told reporters that after the price increase, consumers will pay more attention to the cost performance of products. "We will focus on the advantages of product configuration, such as blade batteries. For models with relatively high prices, consumers will not pay much attention to the price increase."
In addition, in the interview, some people in the new energy vehicle industry disclosed that car companies do not rule out making some changes to low-end models, such as adjusting mileage or other configurations. "If the price rise of raw materials only lasts for one or two months, car enterprises can still absorb this part of cost pressure in a short time, but the price rise of raw materials has lasted for a long time. In order to maintain operation, in the long run, car enterprises will still increase the price if they should increase the price. If the price of old models does not change, they may make price adjustment on the new generation of models." The industry said.
123567 {test of car sales and market share}
Under the background of declining subsidies and rising raw material prices, whether to actively bear the cost pressure or transmit the pressure to consumers has become a problem that new energy vehicle enterprises must face. Cui Dongshu believes that it should go hand in hand to bear the pressure and pass it on to consumers. Their own commitments include configuration adjustment and technology upgrading.
"At this stage, for some new energy vehicle enterprises, they will still take sales volume and market share as the primary consideration, rather than just measuring profitability." Some industry insiders told reporters that some new energy vehicle enterprises set a target of doubling the increment this year, but after the price is adjusted, the next is the battle for market share. At present, new energy vehicles are still in the stage of horse racing and enclosure, and the incremental target is more pressing than the profit target.
The price rise also tests whether car enterprises dare to adjust the interests of channels and adjust the preferential range of consumers' car purchase. "The sales model of some manufacturers is not direct sales, but there is room for further adjustment. For example, if you want to promote sales, you can reduce the Commission of non direct stores and resolve some cost pressure." A new energy vehicle dealer in Shanghai told reporters that the sales pressure has not been fully reflected. In another month or two, if the manufacturer has sales pressure, it may consider cutting off some non direct sales commissions.
2022 is the last year of China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) auto subsidy, and the industry will really enter the stage of endogenous growth.
Yingda Securities believes that the new energy vehicle market has changed from policy driven to market driven, and the decline of subsidies has a limited impact on the overall market growth of new energy vehicles. At the same time, the market still has high expectations for the production, sales and penetration of new energy vehicles. The China Automobile Industry Association predicts that in 2022, the sales of new cars in China will reach 27.5 million, with a year-on-year increase of about 5%. Among them, the sales volume of passenger cars was 23 million, a year-on-year increase of 7%; The sales volume of commercial vehicles was 4.5 million, a year-on-year decrease of 6%; The sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 5 million, with a year-on-year increase of 42%, and the market penetration is expected to exceed 18%.
According to the analysis data of the national passenger car market in 2021 released by the passenger Federation, the wholesale of new energy passenger cars in 2021 was 3.312 million, a year-on-year increase of 181.0%. Among them, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 505000 in December 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 138.9% and a month on month increase of 17.8%. The passenger Federation said that the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was originally expected to be 4.8 million in 2022. At present, it should be adjusted to more than 5.5 million, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles should reach about 25%. New energy vehicles are expected to exceed 6 million, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is about 22%. With broad development prospects, various new energy vehicle enterprises have also set ambitious production and sales targets. The next step is to test how enterprises can go better on the track of marketization.
Reporter's observation: how to make new energy vehicle prices more confident
The decline of subsidies and the rise of raw material prices may be the most acceptable option for new energy vehicle enterprises. The confidence of some enterprises in raising prices comes from the accumulation of early orders and confidence in subsequent orders. Some enterprises do not necessarily have confidence in their own products, and the price increase is more helpless in the market environment. No matter which one, at present, car companies have to think about how to make their own price increase more confident.
This year is the turning point of the new energy vehicle market. Starting from this year, the subsidy for new energy vehicle purchase will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021, and the subsidy will end on December 31, 2022. In fact, in recent years, the threshold of subsidy policy has also been raised, and the requirements for the endurance mileage and battery energy density of pure electric vehicles are becoming higher and higher, which also forces enterprises to speed up technological upgrading. With the gradual withdrawal of "policy dividend", new energy vehicles have really entered a completely market-oriented track.
After early market cultivation, China's new energy vehicle industry chain continues to grow, and the independent brands of new energy vehicles also grow rapidly. The new energy vehicle market presents a situation of "multi-point flowering". According to the data of China Automobile Association, in January 2022, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles reached 431000, a year-on-year increase of 1.4 times. The January sales data of various new energy vehicle enterprises are also quite bright. Although problems such as rising raw material prices and chip shortage still exist in the short term, the industry generally believes that the rapid growth trend of new energy vehicles will not change. This is also the basis for many new energy vehicle enterprises to choose to increase the price this time. New energy vehicles have been accepted by more and more consumers and are no longer "sold only by subsidies".
However, under the prosperity of the general environment, individual worries are still there. Dong Yudong, CEO of Euler brand, admitted that "black and white cats stopped receiving orders, not parking. We did encounter difficulties". After the sharp rise in raw material prices in 2022, black cats lost more than 10000 yuan per unit. The problems encountered by Euler brand are believed to be the risks faced by the industry. The competition in the new energy vehicle market is undoubtedly fierce. In the stage of horse racing and enclosure, car enterprises should consider how to quickly occupy the market, and even "make money at a loss". However, at present, how to effectively resolve the cost risk is another difficult problem.
Most enterprises will face these two choices by digesting the cost pressure by themselves or transmitting part of the pressure to consumers. Depending on the enterprise itself, the enterprise needs to make changes or upgrades in configuration, endurance and other aspects to make up for the cost pressure of new energy batteries. If the pressure is transmitted to consumers through price increases, they need stronger product power to make consumers willing to pay for the rising costs. No matter which way you choose, you still have to rely on the product in the end. Only when the product is really recognized by consumers can the price rise be more confident. From this point of view, the new energy vehicle enterprises driving into the market track still have a long way to go.
