In 2021, tmall's double 11 milk drink brand top5 appeared the name of "maixier". However, the hot consumer market does not seem to be able to support the performance of some companies. The latest performance forecast of Macquarie (002719. SZ) said that the net profit is expected to decline by more than 60% in 2021, while the company had just revoked the delisting risk warning shortly before.
"Seeing high-rise buildings rise and see high-rise buildings collapse" can be described as a true portrayal of maixier since its listing. The leading dairy enterprises in Xinjiang, once given high expectations, are also the focus of the securities companies of major institutions. Research reports come in droves, but the titles range from "growth can be expected", "expectation burst" to the final "waiting to be fulfilled", Macquarie, which has not realized its performance, has been gradually abandoned by the market. After 2016, it can't even search a relevant research report on wind, and Macquarie's share price has fallen all the way from the high of nearly 70 yuan in 2016 to less than 10 yuan now.
Wandering from the leading dairy enterprises in Xinjiang to the edge of delisting, we have missed the golden decade of the rapid development of China's dairy industry. Is there any chance for Michael to turn over after taking off his hat?
from beggars to billionaires, from regional leading dairy enterprises to ST shares
In the 1960s, the young Li Yuhu fled from Shandong and begged all the way to Xinjiang.
In 1989, Li Yuhu raised 5000 yuan and founded a small food factory with only one old oven and five workers, which is the predecessor of maixier. Under the leadership of Li Yuhu, who had the awareness of making products better at that time, the cakes, biscuits and other products produced by this small factory soon became well-known in Xinjiang.
In 2002, Li Yuhu, with accurate vision, aimed at the field of dairy products and was determined to transform Xinjiang's milk resources into product advantages. He resolutely invested 60 million yuan to establish Xinjiang maixier Dairy Co., Ltd. This move has received strong support from the local government. Maixier is listed as the "leader of local dairy enterprises" and shoulders the mission of driving tens of millions of farmers and stimulating regional economic development.
On December 30, 2002, relying on dairy products and baking industry, maixier had a sales revenue of 280 million yuan and a profit of 61.39 million yuan; The sales revenue in 2003 exceeded 380 million yuan; In 2005, "maixier" created the first Chinese famous brand of Xinjiang dairy industry; In 2007, it achieved an income of 500 million yuan.
In order to seek greater benefits, Li Yuhu decided to lead maiinterest to go public. In 2014, maiinterest successfully landed in the capital market. So far, Li Yuhu has completed the legendary transformation from a beggar to a billionaire.
But Merrill's brilliance was also fixed in the year of listing. Li Yuhu gave the hard-earned Mai Xier to his three sons Li Yong, Li Gang and Li Meng. The three brothers who took over the family business set foot on the road of continuous acquisition.
In 2015, maixil acquired Zhejiang xinmeixin Food Industry Co., Ltd. at a premium of 298 million yuan to strengthen maixil's baking business. However, xinmeixin did not bring performance growth to Merrill, but became a "burden" that dragged down Merrill. Merrill's performance couldn't stop slipping. According to the financial report, from 2015 to 2017, Macquarie realized net profits of 71.25 million yuan, 28.11 million yuan and 18.84 million yuan respectively.
The decline in performance did not stop Mr. Merrill from buying. In addition to Zhejiang xinmeixin, maixil also acquired many enterprises across the border, during which it was once reported to enter the Thai aviation industry.
However, these mergers and acquisitions did not improve the operation, but exacerbated the financial burden of the company. In 2018 and 2019, maizeer directly fell into a loss swamp, was wearing the hat of * ST and faced the risk of delisting.
dairy enterprises compete to enclose the land of the pasture, and maizeer starts first and then arrives at
In recent years when Merrill has been losing money, Merrill's competitors are also buying.
In 2014, China's dairy industry set off a hot investment in pastures, "whoever gets the milk source gets the world, and whoever controls the milk source controls the market." Major dairy enterprises either acquire or build their own fast enclosure of high-quality pastures in China.
According to public information, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) in addition to self built pastures, raw milk suppliers also include Huishan dairy, Youran animal husbandry, saikexing, Zhongdi dairy and Xinjiang Western Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300106) . They have mastered most of the high-quality pastures in northern China, and the milk source bases are all over Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia and Xinjiang.
In addition to modern animal husbandry, Fuyuan animal husbandry and Chinese Holy animal husbandry, Mengniu camp also has original ecological animal husbandry. The total number of dairy cows is about 400000. Zhongding animal husbandry and Shangling animal husbandry also supply milk sources for Mengniu and reserve about 100000.
The Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy Co.Ltd(600419) located in Xinjiang with maizer is also constantly raising funds and making continuous efforts to build upstream pastures to improve the self-sufficiency rate of raw milk. According to the report of Minsheng securities, as of the end of June 2021, Tianrun has 16 large-scale pastures, with a stock of 31200 and a raw milk self-sufficiency rate of 69%.
However, the expansion of production and the completion of dairy farming base in maixil have been delayed again and again. "It is planned to raise funds to invest in four projects, including the construction of a production line for 300 tons of raw and fresh milk per day and the construction of an ecological breeding base for 2000 cows. After the project is completed, the company's production capacity will increase by 300%." This is the production expansion and dairy farming base construction plan planned by maizeer in the prospectus in 2014. It was originally planned to be completed and put into operation on December 31, 2016. As a result, it was five years late, and it was not put into operation until the end of 2021.
increase revenue without increasing profit, and there are many doubts about the performance of Macquarie
Maizeer, who has left his peers for 8 years, inevitably has a "hard injury". Macquarie returned to its original dairy business in 2020, and the net profit of that year turned around and successfully "took off the hat". However, just after avoiding the delisting crisis, the net profit of Merrill fell sharply in 2021, which is expected to decline by more than 60%. What is the real business situation of Merrill?
Connected data datayes! It shows that the operating revenue of maizeer in 2020 was 874 million yuan, of which the dairy business revenue was 465 million yuan, an increase of 82.73% year-on-year compared with 254 million yuan in 2019. The net profit of the company in 2020 turned from loss to profit, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 52.75 million yuan, meeting the condition of "taking off the hat".
According to the financial report, the revenue growth of maizeer in 2020 mainly comes from the growth of dairy business. In 2020, the production volume of the company, including baking business, increased from 37500 tons to 62900 tons, most of which are dairy products.
However, looking back on the production data of maixier over the years, its dairy product output has been at the level of about 20000 tons, up to 33000 tons. Due to the delay in the "construction of 300 tons of fresh milk production line per day" planned at the time of listing, there is no merger and acquisition action or disclosure of large orders, the company's dairy business continues to have doubts about its ability to "tap the potential".
Sure enough, only one year later, according to the latest performance forecast data of 2021 disclosed by Macquarie, the net profit attributable to the parent company of the company decreased sharply in 2021, with an estimated profit of 12-18 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of more than 60%, and why did the company increase revenue but not profit when the revenue increased by 30% year-on-year in 2021?.
In order to increase the price of bulk milk and increase the net profit of employees, it is said that these factors have increased the price of bulk milk and reduced the net profit of Maijiang, which have an impact on the market.
On the impact of rising raw material prices on downstream processing dairy enterprises, China first finance and economics interviewed industry analysts. He said that the impact of raw material prices on the profits of dairy enterprises is limited. First, dairy enterprises can alleviate the pressure by raising prices. Second, when the cost of raw materials rises, the promotion efforts of dairy enterprises in retail channels will be weakened and the advertising expenses will be weakened. For some milk enterprises with high sales expense ratio, the decrease of sales expense even exceeded the increase of gross profit margin, and the net profit increased instead.
The sales expense ratio of maixier has indeed decreased significantly. The sales expense ratio in the third quarter of 2021 was 8.45%, down 11.36 percentage points from 19.81% in the same period of last year, which can alleviate the impact of raw milk price rise on profits to a certain extent.
As a result, is there any other hidden reason for the poor performance of Merrill in the fourth quarter?
Interestingly, Merrill's performance has always fluctuated greatly in the fourth quarter of the year. In 2020, the net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter was 38.85 million yuan, accounting for 73.6% of the annual net profit; In 2019, Macquarie lost 87.89 million yuan in the fourth quarter, and the profits in the first three quarters were positive; In 2018, Macquarie lost 180.5 million yuan in the fourth quarter, which was positive in the first three quarters.
In 2021, the company has made a cumulative profit of 17.55 million yuan in the first three quarters, and the annual profit is expected to be 12-18 million yuan, which means that Macquarie not only failed to make a profit in the fourth quarter, but may also have a loss, returning to the situation of 2018 and 2019.
Although there still seem to be many doubts about the company's performance, with the operation of the new production line and breeding base, if maizeer milk, which has taken the middle and high-end line from the beginning, can surprise consumers outside Xinjiang in terms of taste and quality, will it also surprise investors in the near future?
