Since 2022, the steady growth policy has continued to work, and the new atmosphere quietly presented in the capital market has attracted the attention of investors. Now, the trend in February is coming to an end, and the market in March is coming. Can the A-share market usher in a “rise” in spring? What configuration opportunities will be provided to investors? Today, this newspaper analyzes the investment opportunities in the A-share market in March from the aspects of the market operation trend, popular tracks and gold stocks recommended by institutions for readers.
the trend of A-Shares in March of the last seven years is “five rises and two falls”
February is drawing to a close. Under the background of grasping the pilot of comprehensive reform of market-oriented allocation of factors and fully implementing the stock issuance registration system, the institutions have quietly carried out the research and judgment on the overall trend of the A-share market in March.
Looking back on the trend of A-share market in February, it was significantly more stable than that in January. Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai securities and director of the Research Institute, said that from the performance of the three major indexes of the A-share market, in February this year, the performance of the Shanghai composite index was stronger than that of the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index, mainly due to three factors: first, in the gem, the new energy sector represented by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has a relatively large weight, although the industry prosperity of this sector is good, However, the overall valuation is relatively high, and the massive withdrawal of funds led to the overall decline of the sector, which greatly dragged down the trend of the gem index in February. Second, affected by the rising expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, the yield of 10-year US bonds continued to rise in February, which suppressed the trend of the science and technology sector, and then dragged down the performance of the gem index. Third, the performance of Shanghai composite index is relatively good, which is mainly driven by the rise of infrastructure, non-ferrous metals and other varieties. The undervalued value is superimposed with good performance support, which makes the Shanghai composite index have a more margin of safety under the disturbance of the peripheral environment.
Looking forward to the market in March, after combing the views of major institutions, the reporter of Securities Daily found that there are mainly four logical supports.
logic 1: increased market activity.
Recently, the trading volume of A-Shares returned to more than 1 trillion yuan after a month. From February 23 to 25, the turnover of A-share market was 1.04 trillion yuan, 1.36 trillion yuan and 1.02 trillion yuan respectively. The turnover on February 24 reached a new high in nearly five months.
logic 2: the performance prediction rate of listed companies is high.
According to the data, among the 2576 A-share listed companies that have disclosed the forecast of 2021 annual report, 1489 companies are expected to have good performance, accounting for 57.80%. Among them, the pre approval rate of the main board was 55.78%, that of the gem was 58.94%, and that of the science and Innovation Board was 70.11%.
Among the listed companies on the main board, Sichuan Hebang Biotechnology Co.Ltd(603077) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) , Guangdong Tonze Electric Co.Ltd(002759) and other growth capabilities are prominent. It is expected that the year-on-year increase of net profit attributable to the parent company will exceed 7000% in 2021, ranking in the top four of a shares.
logic 3: macroeconomic data continue to improve.
In 2021, China’s GDP increased by 8.1% year-on-year, which was significantly higher than the expected economic growth of the United States (6.0%), the euro area (5.0%) and Japan (2.4%) in the same period, ranking in the forefront of the world’s major economies. In January this year, the global manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 54.7% compared with the previous month, falling month on month for two consecutive months. In this context, China’s manufacturing PMI index in January was above the boom and bust line for three consecutive months, and manufacturing production continued to expand, making a good start for the steady operation of China’s economy in 2022.
Logic 4: the overall valuation of A-Shares is at the bottom.
Statistics show that as of the closing on February 25, the overall P / E ratio of the A-share market was 18.30 times, at the bottom of the region.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, believes that the Federal Reserve began to tighten monetary policy in response to high inflation, which has a significant negative impact on the trend of US stocks. It is expected that after more than ten years of bull market, there is a risk of peaking and falling in the future. The valuation of A-Shares is currently at the bottom of history. Even if the U.S. stocks peak and fall, it will not have a great impact on the long-term trend of a shares. It may even lead some capital to look for varieties in the valuation depression in the A-share market after taking profits from U.S. stocks.
Historical data show that in March of the last seven years (2015-2021), the overall trend of the A-share market showed a trend of “five rises and two falls”.
According to Chen Li’s analysis, the overall trend of A-Shares in March this year will not be pessimistic. It is expected that the sectors with reasonable valuation and good performance growth will perform better. Under the policy of “steady growth”, it is expected that the Shanghai stock index will continue to be strong. After nearly two months of correction, the overall valuation of Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index has been in a relatively reasonable range and has a certain allocation value.
China Merchants Fund said that there is no need to be pessimistic about the short-term weak consolidation trend of the current A-share market. It is expected that the market will gradually heat up in March. With the rapid digestion of geopolitical risks by the market and the gradual dissipation of the impact of the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates, the bottom structure of the A-share market will gradually become clear.
Yu Zongliang, chief equity research officer and senior fund manager of Xingshi investment, told the Securities Daily that at present, the price comparison relationship between the CSI 300 index and the gem index is at a very low level in history, which is expected to drive the average return of the price comparison relationship between the two in the medium and long term. Under the monetary easing policy, the introduction of a series of policies such as increasing support for old and new infrastructure and service industries has formed favorable incentives for relevant industries. The current market expectation has improved, which will support the good performance of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index and gem index.
infrastructure industry and big finance became the track most concerned by institutions in March
Where are the investment opportunities in the A-share market in March? Which popular tracks deserve the most attention?
After combing the strategy report of securities companies, the reporter of Securities Daily found that the infrastructure industry chain and large financial field have become the “good heart” of investment in March in the eyes of securities companies.
First of all, the most concerned track of the organization in March is the infrastructure industry chain, especially the traditional infrastructure, which is highly favored due to the continuous improvement of fundamentals.
China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) the Institute believes that there are two major factors supporting the improvement of the fundamentals of traditional infrastructure. First, from a macro perspective, under the background of “steady growth”, the important position of infrastructure investment in underpinning economic growth will not change in the short term, and it is expected to achieve a growth rate of about 5%; Second, from the perspective of orders, the scale of national infrastructure investment may reach 19717 billion yuan in 2022, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 4.5%.
The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) Securities believes that there are more investment opportunities in traditional infrastructure this year. First, we should pay attention to leading enterprises in subdivided industries with abundant orders and strong anti risk ability. Second, we can pay attention to the investment opportunities in the field of vibration reduction and isolation under high-quality development. Third, there is a broad demand for the construction of “Urban Agglomeration” on the track. Fourth, under the expectation of the marginal improvement of infrastructure investment in the second half of the year, we can pay attention to the undervalued targets.
Fifth, focus on infrastructure leading enterprises with stable main business and mineral resources. Sixth, in the context of dual control of energy consumption, it is suggested to pay attention to high-quality targets in green power, BIPV and other related fields.
In addition to new investment opportunities in traditional infrastructure, investment opportunities in digital infrastructure such as “counting from the east to the west” are also favored by institutions.
Chuancai Securities said that the investment scale of “counting East and counting West” project is large, involving a wide range of industries, and the five fields are expected to take the lead in benefiting. First of all, digital infrastructure is the foundation of the “east to West computing” project, and the demand for data centers, communication base stations, communication equipment and other sectors will increase on a large scale; Secondly, with the increasing demand for computing power, it is expected to promote the upgrading of network, server and other equipment; Third, industrial digitization needs further transformation and upgrading; Fourth, the explosion of data traffic is expected to accelerate the high-quality growth of optical fiber communication industry; Fifth, the demand for data and information security has increased significantly, and the performance growth of the data security industry has accelerated. The beneficiary targets related to these fields deserve attention.
Long Hao, chairman of Jinding assets, told the Securities Daily: “the infrastructure track will be sought after by funds in March. The benefit sectors include rail transit construction, UHV, communication electronics, computers, software, precision manufacturing, digital currency, etc. it is suggested to focus on the investment opportunities of leading enterprises in specific fields.”
Big finance is also favored by institutions like the infrastructure industry chain. The good performance of Listed Companies in the banking industry in 2021 has been widely concerned by the market. As of February 25, in the Shenwan banking industry, 20 listed banks have announced the performance express of 2021. Judging from the net profit indicators attributable to the shareholders of the parent company, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) achieved a net profit of 119.922 billion yuan in 2021, and the net profits of seven banks in 2021, including Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) , China Everbright Bank Company Limited Co.Ltd(601818) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Hua Xia Bank Co.Limited(600015) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , also exceeded 10 billion yuan.
The Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) who is quite optimistic about investment opportunities in the banking sector believes that in the process of “wide credit”, the market of bank shares may accompany the whole process of “steady growth”. Among them, local banks in high-quality regions such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang are relatively more optimistic about the main line of steady operation.
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) said that from the banking sector and individual stocks held by institutions in the fourth quarter of 2021, there is limited room for further reduction of bank shares. Since 2022, the “steady growth” policy has continued to work. Driven by the steady growth of performance, the valuation of the banking sector has begun to repair. In terms of configuration, it is recommended to select banks with first mover advantages in the field of wealth management, such as customer base, sales channels, product service system and so on.
“Infrastructure industry chain and big finance are the first two areas to benefit under the background of ‘steady growth’. In the past few years, the market performance of these two areas has lagged behind, and the valuation also has room for improvement.” Yuan Huaming, general manager of Huahui Chuangfu investment, told the reporter of Securities Daily.
154 stocks were highly praised by institutions
show three characteristics
For the upcoming March market, which stocks are most respected by institutions?
Data show that in the last 30 trading days, 53 securities companies have recommended 994 stocks, and 154 stocks have been recommended by securities companies for five or more times (including buy and overweight ratings). Among them, Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , China stock market news and other four stocks were recommended by institutions such as “buy” or “overweight” for 20 or more times during the period.
Why do institutions recommend these stocks? Through the comprehensive analysis of 154 stocks that are optimistic about the above institutions, it is found that these stocks generally have three characteristics.
excellent performance
Statistics show that as of February 25, among the stocks recommended by the above institutions, five companies have disclosed their annual performance in 2021, and the net profits of four companies, including Focus Lightings Tech Co.Ltd(300708) , Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) , Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) , Shenzhen H&T Intelligent Control Co.Ltd(002402) , have achieved positive year-on-year growth in 2021. Another 105 listed companies issued performance forecasts for 2021, with 95 pre hi companies, accounting for more than 90%. Among them, the largest year-on-year change in net profit of 35 companies during the reporting period was 100% or more.
Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai securities and director of the Research Institute, told reporters: “with the approaching peak of annual report disclosure, the performance of listed companies has become the focus of market attention. Therefore, blue chip stocks have been recommended by institutions.” In terms of configuration, Chen Li suggested that the layout should be from the perspective of annual report performance, and pay attention to the investment targets with reasonable valuation and good performance growth.
popular track
Among the 154 stocks recommended by institutions, the number of stocks belonging to electronics (19), food and beverage (19), computer (12), automobile (10) and other industries is 10 or more according to the classification of shenwanyi industry. Based on this calculation, there are 31 stocks in the science and technology industry represented by electronics and computers; There are 29 large consumption concept stocks dominated by food, beverage and automobile. It can be seen that the two high-quality tracks of big consumption and technology are still the focus of the organization.
Hu Bo, manager of Rongzhi investment fund of private placement paipai.com, said that the overall supporting factors of the market still exist and the logic for the better remains unchanged. In the short-term emotional interference, the market may still have repeated, but the adjustment will usher in a good time for strategic allocation. Specifically, the field of science and technology is the main direction of China’s future economic transformation, industrial upgrading and policy support. It is also a track that is expected to maintain a long-term high outlook in the future. Especially after the recent valuation adjustment in the field of science and technology, the investment cost performance is getting higher and higher. The large consumption sector has benefited from the long-term existence of the policy of “stabilizing growth and promoting consumption”. After the impact of the epidemic last year, it is expected that there will be a reversal opportunity this year.
the strong is always strong
In terms of market performance, since February, 99 of the above 154 stocks have outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index in the same period (up 2.68% in the month), accounting for more than 60%. Among them, Hebei Sinopack Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(003031) , Yankuang energy, Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) and other three stocks increased by more than 30%, 42.49%, 32.93% and 32.83% respectively.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities said that under the background of “stable growth”, infrastructure strength and real estate recovery will become two important anchors of market risk appetite. With the further development of the “steady growth” policy, the valuation of infrastructure and real estate sector is expected to gradually repair upward.
