Key investment points:
The consumption of health care products is related to the economic level and residents' income. Developed countries and regions are the main force of global consumption of health care products. As of 2017, the Chinese market accounted for 16% of the global consumption of health products. Although the consumption volume is large, the per capita consumption level of health care products in China is still very low, and the potential market in the future remains to be explored by enterprises.
We predict that the scale of the global health care products market will exceed 150 billion US dollars in 2021, equivalent to nearly 950 billion yuan. The growth level of China's health care products consumer market is higher than that of the world. It is an emerging and emerging consumer market. The scale of China's health care products market can reach 150 billion yuan in 2021. In the post epidemic period, with the intensification of social and environmental pressure such as bacteria and aging, China's health care products market is expected to maintain a high growth level.
The division of production and marketing is the development trend of the health care products industry. Manufacturers and brands have their own emphasis on production and sales and cooperate with each other to maximize profits.
In China, the production and brand market of health products are moving from decentralization to concentration, and the leading enterprises have led the development of the industry. At present, China's large-scale manufacturers of health products include Sirio Pharma Co.Ltd(300791) and By-Health Co.Ltd(300146) (A-share listed companies) in Guangdong, eland in Jiangsu and Weihai Lily in Shandong; The world's largest manufacturers of health products include ayanda in Europe, LiPA in Australia, pharmavite in the United States and GNC in the United States The market share of the top ten brands in the Chinese market is only 30%, and the market still has the potential for further concentration. At present, the top ten brands occupying the Chinese market include: limitless, Amway, perfect, Dong-E-E-Jiao Co.Ltd(000423) , By-Health Co.Ltd(300146) , Herbalife, China Resources, Pfizer, new era and Johnson & Johnson, with a total share of 29.7%, and the remaining 70.3% of the market share is occupied by other brands.
In the operating cost structure of health product manufacturers, direct materials account for 65% to 75% and packaging materials account for 20% to 30%. The price fluctuation of direct materials has a real impact on the company's operation. Direct materials mainly include gelatin, fish oil, vitamins, cod liver oil, chondroitin sulfate and energy.
Investment suggestion: by the closing on February 24, 2022, the A-share health care products sector will have a large decline.
According to the closing price on February 24, 2022, the valuations of Sirio Pharma Co.Ltd(300791) and By-Health Co.Ltd(300146) in 2022 have dropped to 17 times and 19 times respectively. We believe that after the epidemic, the residents' consumption expenditure on health products is expected to increase, and the social aging is accelerating. In the long run, the stable growth of the health products market can be guaranteed. It is suggested to pay attention to the A-share health products sector.
Risk tip: the potential risks of the health products industry include: sudden administrative rectification leads to periodic shrinkage of the market; The price of core raw materials fluctuated sharply.
