with the war between Russia and Ukraine in full swing, the supply of special gases such as neon dominated by Ukraine has attracted market attention.
The reporter of securities times · e company learned from relevant listed companies that the price of neon gas has continued to rise since last year. With the war between Russia and Ukraine, some manufacturers have stopped the latest quotation; Listed companies related to the industrial chain also said they were ready for inventory.
in addition, the latest data show that the chip delivery date has been extended again in 2022, the international leading manufacturers have increased their efforts to expand production and raise prices, and the supply chain situation has become more and more complex.
neon gas rose sharply in Russia and Ukraine, and some manufacturers have stopped offering
Although Ukraine has a small share in the global semiconductor market, it is the main supplier of semiconductor raw material gas, including neon, argon, krypton and xenon. The price of relevant electronic special gas has increased significantly. According to Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) financial data, the price of neon has shown an upward trend since October 2021. After the Russian Ukrainian incident in February 2022, the overall price rose again by 20% ~ 30%.
Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co.Ltd(002549) told the reporter of the securities times · e company: "the neon price has been rising recently. At the beginning of last year, it was about 400 yuan / cubic meter, and the price rose to about 2100 yuan / cubic meter before the war between Russia and Ukraine; since the formal war between Russia and Ukraine, the company has stopped neon quotation".
In a recent investor survey, Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co.Ltd(002549) executives said that xenon is the most expensive of helium neon krypton xenon, especially aviation xenon. The higher the purity and price, especially the tense situation between Russia and Ukraine, the price will continue to rise.
In addition, in terms of electronic special gases, Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co.Ltd(002549) is actively promoting the certification progress in China and abroad. Asmai certification requires the company's background investigation, document review, sample testing, on-site acceptance, evaluation acceptance and other processes, Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co.Ltd(002549) is actively advancing step by step.
It is reported that Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co.Ltd(002549) is a rare supplier of electronic grade neon and other special gases for a shares. It has the whole industrial chain of electronic special gases. The upstream gas source is mainly from Sinopec and PetroChina, and the raw materials are mainly recovered from the tail gas.
According to the latest performance forecast, Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co.Ltd(002549) 2021 will achieve a profit of 115-144 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 60% - 100%; The company's performance growth was mainly due to the booming production and sales of liquefied gas and pentane products. In addition, the sales revenue of electronic special gas products decreased year-on-year.
abundant special gas inventory
As an enterprise focusing on electronic special gas head, Guangdong Huate Gas Co.Ltd(688268) confirmed to the reporter of the securities times that the raw materials of the company's lithography gas are purchased from Ukraine. On the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on gas supply, the company introduced that at present, the local real estate area in Ukraine has not stopped production and supply, and the company has about half a year's gas inventory and abundant reserves; Even if the supply is cut off in extreme cases, China has gas supply as a supplement.
"in terms of special gas supply, there is no 'neck sticking' in China at present." Guangdong Huate Gas Co.Ltd(688268) told reporters that
"At present, the market may pay too much attention to rare gases due to the Russian Ukrainian crisis."
It is reported that the four lithographic gas products of Guangdong Huate Gas Co.Ltd(688268) are the only gas supplier in China certified by ASML and gigaphoto at the same time, and maintain good communication and strategic cooperation with Fab customers. At present, the company occupies a high market share in China's lithography gas market, and the introduction period of domestic customers is accelerating as a whole. According to the performance express, benefiting from the growth of sales volume of special gases, the growth of demand in China's semiconductor market, the growth of new products and customers, the net profit of Guangdong Huate Gas Co.Ltd(688268) in 2021 reached 128 million yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year
In the face of the supply crisis of electronic special gases, major semiconductor manufacturers in Europe and the United States said that the impact of the situation in Russia and Ukraine was limited and the current inventory was sufficient. ASML said that Ukraine produces less than 20% of its neon and is trying to find other neon supply channels. In addition, SK Hynix, a storage giant, said that its inventory was enough to deal with the crisis; Meguiar technology also said that its neon gas supply mainly comes from Europe and the United States, with a low proportion in Ukraine and sufficient inventory.
Ren Lu, general manager of the gas circle, said in an interview that China is a big steel country in the world. A breakthrough has been made in the purification technology of these rare gases, and the production process is relatively mature, which is not a "neck" technology; Even in extreme cases, China can organize emergency production to ensure China's supply.
the delivery time of the chip is extended and the price rise becomes complex
For the semiconductor supply chain, every link is essential.
According to the information provided by Jibang consulting to reporters, Ukraine supplies nearly 70% of the world's neon gas; In the semiconductor lithography process, the process requiring neon is mainly DUV exposure, and the process nodes range from 180nm for 8-inch wafers to 1xnm for 12 inch wafers In terms of distribution, the global 180 ~ 1xnm production capacity accounts for about 75% of the whole, and the 180 ~ 1xnm revenue of most wafers accounts for more than 90%, and involves the product process range with extremely tight supply since 2020, as well as NAND flash and other storage types.
From the perspective of short-term impact, Jibang consulting pointed out that although the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may impact the inert gas supply in this region, under the condition that semiconductor plants and gas supply plants are equipped with inventory and there are still supplies from other regions, it will not cause production line interruption and affect output in the short term, but the reduction of gas supply may still cause price rise, Chip production costs may therefore rise.
a manufacturer told reporters: "at present, there is an opportunity to hype electronic gas in the market, just like the hype of 'hoarding masks' before covid-19 epidemic," and made it clear that the company will not participate in it.
Earlier, South Korean financial institutions issued a research report that the outbreak of conflict between Russia and Ukraine will interfere with the production of inert gases such as neon, argon and krypton and impact the supply and demand of semiconductors. As when Russia annexed the Crimea Peninsula in 2014, the price of neon soared more than 10 times.
According to recent data, the lack of core continues. TSMC, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) and other wafer factories have expanded production and increased capital expenditure. However, as an important investment in production expansion, semiconductor equipment has also encountered the crisis of "lack of core and material".
The reporter of the securities times learned from the equipment factory that in the field of compound semiconductors, the delivery cycle of upstream key MOCVD equipment has been extended again due to the tight supply of parts, and the latest delivery time is about 10 months; Chip detection equipment is also affected by the shortage of chips and some raw materials, and the delivery cycle is prolonged.
Semiconductor equipment suppliers have to compete for limited chip supply and work closely with wafer factories.
According to the statistics of Japan economic news, the delivery time of chips is extended by about 5 ~ 15 weeks compared with October 2021, and the delivery time of some parts is up to about 90 weeks (nearly 2 years); Gartner, an American research firm, pointed out that the average unit price of industrial control semiconductors has increased by more than 15% in one year. In addition, from the financial report of semiconductor giants, the supply of simulated IDM continues to be tight, the number of inventory days is far lower than their respective targets, and the demand greatly exceeds the supply. Even for skyworks, which has a slightly optimistic capacity supply, executives said that the supply chain encountered difficulties in obtaining some parts.
on the other hand, there has been some differentiation in the price rise of chips. Leading manufacturers such as TSMC and Infineon have made clear the price rise news recently, but the market is worried about the weakening of downstream demand, the rise of terminal inventory, and the prices of consumer electronics and LED driven chips have been reduced. According to media reports, the negotiation between some second-line wafer foundries and IC design customers is not smooth, and the orders of some packaging and testing manufacturers have become light before the new year.
In response to the semiconductor cycle fluctuation, A-share semiconductor packaging and testing leader Jcet Group Co.Ltd(600584) told reporters that most of the company's new production capacity is concentrated in advanced packaging with its own unique technical threshold, mainly aiming at the fields or applications with strong customer order demand in the next few years to realize differentiated product production capacity. On the one hand, the company's overseas strategic key customers can help the company better reduce the periodicity. On the other hand, as the largest chip finished product manufacturing service provider in China, the company also enjoys the rapid growth demand of Chinese customers. In 2021, nearly two-thirds of the company's fixed assets are invested in advanced packaging to ensure that the company can better tap market opportunities. In addition, over the past two years, the company's fixed asset investment has been relatively prudent and has high requirements for the capacity utilization and profitability of the new production line, which can help the company better cope with industry fluctuations.
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