As of February 22, 2022, 35 lithium battery industry chain enterprises have made performance forecasts for 2021, including 28 in advance, 5 in profit and 2 in loss. Among the 28 pre added enterprises, the net profit of 24 enterprises increased by more than 100% year-on-year. In January 2022, the sales volume of new energy vehicles outside China continued to shine, and the industry remained high. Tesla 4680 batteries have produced more than 1 million and are expected to be loaded by the end of the first quarter. The rapid industrialization of 4680 battery is expected to drive the demand growth of silicon-based negative electrode, high nickel positive electrode, carbon nanotube conductive agent, new lithium salt and other related products.
In January, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continued to increase, and the prices of lithium battery main materials continued to rise. Vehicle end: in mid January 2022, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles was 431000, a year-on-year increase of 142%; The narrow penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 16.59%, far exceeding the level of the same period last year. The sales volume of eight European countries was corrected at the beginning of the year. The total sales volume in January was 116000, an increase of 30% year-on-year and a decrease of 46% month on month. In January 2022, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cars in the United States reached 62000, with a year-on-year increase of 74% and a month on month decrease of 20%. 2022 is the first year of American electric pickup truck. With the help of diversified models and policies, the sales volume is expected to double year-on-year.
Battery end: in 2021, the installed capacity of global power battery was 296.8gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 102%; The installed capacity of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ranks first in the world, with a market share of 32.6%. In January 2022, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery installed capacity was 16.2gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 87%; Among them, the installed proportion of lithium iron phosphate battery reached 54.9%. We expect that driven by the hot sales of iron lithium models and technologies such as CTP and blade battery, its proportion is expected to maintain a high level.
Material side: affected by the rising price of lithium battery materials, the price of power batteries has generally increased by more than 15% since 2022, and some have increased by 20% – 30%. Some lithium hydroxide smelters were shut down for maintenance, adding that the capacity of China’s Salt Lake decreased due to the influence of winter temperature, and the price of lithium salt continued to soar, which pushed the price of cathode up. In terms of negative electrode, affected by the Winter Olympic Games, the load of graphitization enterprises decreased and the output decreased. After the festival, the supply of petroleum coke was tight, and the cost side pressure of negative electrode was large, but the price was temporarily stable. The high price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was temporarily stable, with sufficient start-up in the Spring Festival and the impact of the off-season. The supply was loose, the price was slightly consolidated, and the price of electrolyte was stable in February. The diaphragm factory started normally and the price remained stable month on month.
Investment suggestion: under the high climate, the sales volume of new energy vehicles that pay attention to the volume price elasticity of lithium battery materials and the benefit of new technologies continues to be strong. We are optimistic about the leading targets with good pattern and reasonable valuation:
1) 4680 battery benefit areas: battery enterprises with early layout ( Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) ), high nickel positive electrode ( Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) ), silicon-based negative electrode ( Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) ), carbon nanotube ( Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) ), new lithium salt ( Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) ); 2) Import substitution of consumer batteries, smooth price rise and excellent pattern. Recommend electric tool batteries ( Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) ) and 3C lithium battery consumption China leader ( Zhuhai Cosmx Battery Co.Ltd(688772) ).
Risk warning: policy change risk; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The production and sales of electric vehicles were less than expected.
