Hot spot quick review
Events
On February 24, the main leaders of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development reviewed the work in 2021 and looked forward to the key work in 2022 at the press conference on promoting the high-quality development of housing and urban rural construction. 1 comments
How do you view this meeting’s statement on real estate? The topics discussed at the meeting took into account the short-term and medium and long-term. It was more a systematic summary and combing of the previous statements on real estate, and the overall wording was neutral. It not only reiterated the policy regulation principles of “no speculation in real estate”, “not using real estate as a tool and means to stimulate the economy in the short term”, but also emphasized “ensuring the demand for rigid housing” and “meeting the reasonable demand for improved housing”, and refined the specific connotation of “enhancing the coordination and accuracy of regulation policies”. We believe that real estate regulation has always been two-way and differentiated in the long run, and pay attention to stability and continuity. However, under the background of the superposition of downward pressure on market fundamentals and credit risk of real estate enterprises, the connotation of “strengthening expectation guidance” and “promoting virtuous cycle” should mean effectively supporting the market and preventing downward risks, In particular, guide buyers’ expectations and reasonable housing demand to gradually return. Combined with the recent policy changes in Heze, Foshan, Guangzhou and other places in terms of down payment ratio and housing loan interest rate, we believe that the signal transmitted by the current policy side is becoming more and more positive.
How to look forward to future real estate policy changes? We judge that in the future, there will be more positive adjustment space for the regulation and control policies of the property market around the city under the framework of “implementing policies for the city”, including the follow-up of policies in terms of down payment ratio, housing loan interest rate, talent policy, house purchase subsidy and the increase of policy strength in more cities. With the continuous and abundant investment of bank mortgage line, it is expected to gradually guide the expected reversal and demand return of the real market. In addition, we look forward to seeing more financial support and policy arrangements around improving the willingness of high-quality real estate enterprises to collect and acquire, promoting the asset disposal of problematic real estate enterprises, and further standardizing and optimizing the pre-sale fund supervision system, so as to promote the relief of credit problems of real estate enterprises. The above policy direction has been relatively clear, and the future market must focus on the rhythm of policy evolution. We suggest that after the “two sessions” (especially after the economic data and real estate data in the beginning of the year are clearer) or the next window period for observing important changes in the policy side.
Are fundamental sales expected to rebound in the future? We believe that the market fundamentals may still be tangled and fluctuating at the bottom from January to February in the future. When the fundamentals rebound depends on the strong adjustment time point of the post municipal policy end.
If this time point occurs at the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter, we expect that the year-on-year decline of new house sales may be significantly narrowed in the second half of the second quarter, and it is expected to become positive in the third quarter. The recovery rhythm of supply side indicators such as investment and construction will be significantly delayed on the demand side, and the year-on-year positive may appear in the fourth quarter.
How to go in the future market of real estate stocks? We suggest that real estate stocks may be disturbed in the short term due to factors such as the fermentation of some real estate enterprises’ credit events and the reduction of performance expectations. However, considering the clear direction of the policy side and that this round of high-quality leading real estate enterprises will continue to benefit from the in-depth optimization of the industry pattern, we continue to prompt the allocation value of “all good” head developers. Recommended ranking of a shares: Poly, Jindi, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Jinke, Binjiang, OCT and Vanke; The recommended order of H shares is China shipping, China Resources, Xuhui, China Construction Development International, Yuexiu and country garden.
Risk
The positive regulation on the policy side is timely and less than expected; The credit risk of real estate enterprises deteriorated more than expected.
The positive regulation on the policy side is timely and less than expected; The credit risk of real estate enterprises deteriorated more than expected.
