On February 23, Wang Bohua, honorary chairman of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said that driven by the huge reserves of photovoltaic power generation projects in China, the installed capacity of new photovoltaic power generation projects may increase to more than 75gw in 2022, about 75gw-90gw. In 2021, the newly installed capacity of PV in China is about 55gw. Based on this calculation, the newly installed capacity this year will increase by 36% – 64% year-on-year. At the same time, it is estimated that from 2022 to 2025, China’s average annual new photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 83gw-99gw.
1 moonlight volt installed capacity
year on year growth of 200%
According to the data of the Ministry of industry and information technology, the overall operation of China’s photovoltaic industry was good in 2021, and the industrial chain supply chain was safe and stable. The output of polysilicon, silicon wafer, battery and module reached 505000 tons, 227gw, 198gw and 182gw respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 27.5%, 40.6%, 46.9% and 46.1%. The annual export of photovoltaic products exceeded 28.4 billion US dollars.
According to the new PV installed capacity in China in recent four years, the first quarter is generally the off-season for new PV installed capacity. According to the data of China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Research Report, in January 2022, China’s photovoltaic installed capacity exceeded expectations, and the country’s new photovoltaic installed capacity exceeded 7gw, with a year-on-year increase of 200%, of which the new installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic was 4.5gw, with a year-on-year increase of 250%; The new installed capacity of centralized photovoltaic is 2.5gw, with a year-on-year increase of 150%. Orders for upstream silicon materials, silicon wafers, downstream batteries, components, inverters and auxiliary materials in all links of the industrial chain are generally full, and the operating rate rises instead of falling. This year’s traditional off-season may be “not light”.
At the company level, on February 22, photovoltaic leader Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) raised the price of silicon wafers again. The prices of silicon wafers of different sizes increased by 0.3 yuan / piece to 0.35 yuan / piece, or 5.7% – 6.1%. On January 16, the company just announced a price increase of 2.4% – 5.1% for silicon wafers. The analysis shows that the mismatch between the supply and demand end of the industrial chain and the insufficient supply increment are the main reasons for the price increase of silicon wafers. At present, most of the new silicon material production capacity will be put into operation in the second half of the year, and the silicon wafer production capacity is close to the upper limit of silicon material supply. Industry insiders expect that the overall silicon wafer supply is still tight in the second quarter.
photovoltaic sector rose against the market
Recently, the performance of photovoltaic sector is relatively strong. The PV index has rebounded by more than 11% since February 14, and the industry leader Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) has risen for three consecutive days. Since the share price came out of the new low on February 14, it has rebounded by more than 12%. Meanwhile, since February 14, 10 shares including Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) , Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) have increased by more than 20%, and 26 shares including Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) , Levima Advanced Materials Corporation(003022) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Eaglerise Electric & Electronic (China) Co.Ltd(002922) have increased by more than 10%.
Securities Times · databao statistics the list of concept stocks of photovoltaic industry chain with high growth performance, with a total of 35 shares. In terms of market performance, since the Spring Festival, 35 shares have risen by an average of more than 7%, outperforming the market in the same period, and 10 shares have risen by more than 10%, of which Tangshan Sunfar Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603938) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) have led the rise, all rising by more than 20%.
In terms of agency rating, Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) have received high attention, and have been rated by more than 20 agencies. Many companies also received many institutional research after the year. After Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) and Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) , 210 or 190 institutions were surveyed. There were more than 20 research institutions after Harbin Jiuzhou Group Co.Ltd(300040) and Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) .
In terms of performance, upstream enterprises performed well, while middle and downstream enterprises such as battery modules and photovoltaic power stations performed poorly. Based on the median value of express data / pre increase range, the net profit of the above 35 shares increased by more than 50% year-on-year, and 21 shares are expected to double. Nyocor Co.Ltd(600821) has the highest growth rate of 620.56%. The high performance growth is mainly due to the expansion of the company’s installed capacity, the year-on-year increase of 65.85% in cumulative power sales and the small comparable base in the same period of 2020. The net profit growth of Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) , Ningxia Jiaze Renewables Corporation Limited(601619) and other three shares fell in the range of 300% – 480%.
