Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Ping An Securities: focus on four main lines! The subject matter of medicine with sufficient adjustment and low valuation deserves special attention
Main line 1: innovation Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) chain, including innovative drugs (machinery) and CXO CDE’s new deal accelerates the evolution of China’s “new ecology” of innovation, and the industry is facing “re differentiation”. Pay attention to companies with clinical Oriented Innovation Ability and license out ability. It is suggested to pay attention to: Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Baiji Shenzhou, Xinda biology, Corning Jerry, Shenzhen Chipscreen Biosciences Co.Ltd(688321) . In terms of CXO, we prefer cdmo and macromolecular CXO tracks by maintaining a high outlook. We suggest to pay attention to: Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) .
Main line 2: products go to sea. The overseas market is a huge incremental market, there is a high threshold for the export of preparations, and the export of medical devices to the sea has also become a new growth driving force of the industry. It is suggested to pay attention to: Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Hainan Poly Pharm.Co.Ltd(300630) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , etc.
Main line 3: consumer healthcare. With the growth of per capita disposable income, the demand for consumer medical care continues to increase. At the same time, consumer medical products are self funded products, with independent pricing power and immunization fee control policy. It is suggested to pay attention to: Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Yantai Zhenghai Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300653) , etc.
Main line 4: the traditional Chinese medicine sector has been in the adjustment stage for a long time, and the overall valuation is low. Enterprises with steady performance growth in the sector have high cost performance and prominent layout advantages. Moreover, the export of traditional Chinese medicine products is small and the internal circulation attribute is obvious, so it will not be disturbed by foreign policies towards China. Some traditional Chinese medicine products are more inclined to health care products with stronger consumption attributes, which can be benchmarked with some food enterprises.
On this premise, we believe that the subject matter with sufficient adjustment and low valuation deserves special attention. Among them, enterprises with a larger proportion of OTC drugs in the fee control policy of immune medical insurance, better room for price increase of products and a smaller proportion of traditional Chinese medicine injections have greater flexibility. It is suggested to pay attention to: Henan Lingrui Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600285) , Kpc Pharmaceuticals Inc(600422) , etc. In addition to the above main lines, there are also some other tracks with high prosperity and high barriers: including characteristic API and nuclear medicine. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Jiangxi Fushine Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300497) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , Yantai Dongcheng Biochemicals Co.Ltd(002675) , and Yuanda medicine. []
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) : it is recommended to pay attention to covid-19 drug raw material suppliers and cro
Recently, many European countries announced that they coexist with covid-19 virus, “vaccine + covid-19 drug” is still the main means of anti epidemic in the future. The new proposal continues to focus on investment opportunities in the field of vaccines and covid-19 drugs, and key companies include Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) ; With the approval of covid-19 drugs for listing, it is necessary to ensure the supply of raw materials and production capacity. Enterprises related to covid-19 drug raw materials supply also deserve special attention, such as Zhejiang Cheng Yi Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603811) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Nanjing Hicin Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300584) , Jiangxi Fushine Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300497) ; 2) The development of innovative drugs has entered a breakthrough innovation stage, and the valuation of CXO has been adjusted a lot. With the disclosure of the annual report, we can continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of CXO, and it is suggested to focus on Joinn Laboratories (China) Co.Ltd(603127) . []
Great Wall Guorui Securities: the valuation is at the bottom of history. The current investment value of the pharmaceutical industry is prominent
The valuation is at the bottom of history and the current investment value of the industry is prominent. We suggest increasing the allocation proportion of the industry and paying attention to investment opportunities in six aspects: first, the performance disclosure of the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022 is imminent, and paying attention to the high-quality targets that the performance of the annual report and the first quarterly report is expected to increase or exceed expectations; Second, with the official release of the 14th five year plan for the development of pharmaceutical industry, under the premise of controlling medical insurance expenses, innovation and internationalization will be the core main line of the industry in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to innovation driven companies and pharmaceutical enterprises with international ability; Third, the CXO industry. Recently, the CXO industry has undergone in-depth adjustment, and the valuation is at the bottom of history. Contrarian, focus on companies with sufficient orders and reasonable current valuation; Fourth, drugstore chain companies with reasonable valuation and stable recovery; Fifth, pay attention to the consumer medical section. Under the background of medical insurance fee control, the ophthalmology, medical beauty and other medical sub industries with consumption attribute have policy immunity, and the consumption upgrading will drive their development; Sixth, pay attention to the traditional Chinese medicine sector. The release of the guiding opinions on medical insurance supporting the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine shows the state’s determination to the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine, which will play a positive role in the traditional Chinese medicine industry. []
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) : CXO sector is still the best subdivision direction with medium-range bearing, sustainability and long-term logic in the pharmaceutical sector
The normalization of the epidemic situation and the expectation of influenza are optimistic about the volume of oral covid-19 drugs. Vaccine, neutralizing antibody and oral covid-19 drugs work together to normalize the epidemic and influenza. Based on the therapeutic mechanism, accessibility and economy of oral drugs, we continue to be optimistic about the application prospect of oral small molecule covid-19 drugs. A number of domestic and foreign oral covid-19 drugs are about to enter the mass production stage: ① the original research supply chain continues to increase the supply chain; ② Through the equity grant of MPP platform, generic pharmaceutical enterprises and supply chain enterprises obtain the rights and interests of generic pharmaceutical production and sales; ③ The layout of covid-19 oral drugs in China is rich, and the research and development is gradually promoted.
In terms of innovation Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) chain (CXO): in 2022 and the next 3-5 years, CXO sector is still the best subdivision direction of medium-term bearing, sustainability and long-term logic of pharmaceutical sector. The core driving factors are: overseas industrial transfer, industrial upgrading, China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) innovation rise, etc. CXO sector has strong growth and certainty. In the long run, it should enjoy a certain valuation premium. The valuation of leading companies in the sector has entered the bottom range, and the allocation cost performance is high. In terms of market sentiment, it continues to pick up. We expect that with the continuous disclosure of the annual report in March and the update of the business situation in the first quarter, the market sentiment will further pick up.
API sector: the API sector continues to promote the capacity construction of intermediates and APIs, preparations and cdmo projects. Under the background of the continuous support of the 14th five year plan for pharmaceutical industry development for API, the performance of relevant enterprises is expected to improve steadily, and the profitability is expected to improve continuously in 2022 (the price of upstream raw materials, exchange rate and freight rise in 2021, and the profit margin fluctuates).
Continue to be optimistic about the upstream supply chain: focus on the investment opportunities in the supply chain during the 14th Five Year Plan period (industrial upgrading + domestic substitution), including subdivided fields such as equipment and equipment, scientific instruments, upstream reagent consumables for scientific research, upstream consumables for pharmaceutical industry and raw and auxiliary material packaging materials.
In terms of investment suggestions, focus on Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) , Focused Photonics (Hangzhou) Inc(300203) . []
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) : bad factors of innovative drugs clear out high-quality assets and usher in a good opportunity for layout
The overall performance of the innovative drug sector in the past year has been poor. We estimate that the factors leading to the decline of the share price of innovative drug enterprises are not only the correction pressure of the previous overvalued value, but also the corresponding repressive factors on the fundamentals, such as the risk of price reduction in medical insurance negotiation and the risk of failure of innovative drugs at sea, which lead to some concerns about the development of the industry by market investors. With the release of the valuation pressure of the innovative drug sector and the clearing of the negative factors of medical insurance negotiation and going to sea, high-quality assets have ushered in a good opportunity for layout. Rongchang biological-b and kangnoah-b are recommended, and it is recommended to pay attention to Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Xinda biological, Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Baiji Shenzhou, etc.
Based on the changes and invariance of pharmaceutical investment, we believe that we should actively grasp the investment opportunities in the direction of innovation and internationalization in the future. In terms of innovative drugs and vaccines, Xinda Biology (H) and Rongchang Biology (H) are recommended; In terms of CXO, Yao Mingsheng (H), Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) , Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress Co.Ltd(688131) , Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) are recommended; In the field of equipment and Life Sciences, Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , minimally invasive medicine (H), Shinva Medical Instrument Co.Ltd(600587) , Amoy Diagnostics Co.Ltd(300685) , Iray Technology Company Limited(688301) ; In terms of innovative cutting-edge technologies, pay attention to unlisted enterprises such as Aibo biology; For domestic consumption, we recommend Jinxin reproduction (H), Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Shandong Wit Dyne Health Co.Ltd(000915) , Boya Bio-Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300294) . []
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) : the pharmaceutical and biological sector has high cost performance! Focus on high-quality target matching boom track valuation and growth rate
In the uncertain macro environment outside China and the repeated stage of global covid-19 epidemic in winter, we believe that the pharmaceutical and biological sector has a high cost performance. We suggest to continue to pay attention to the high-quality targets matching the boom track valuation and growth rate: Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Yiming biological products, Kingsley biotechnology, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Connaught, Corning Jerry pharmaceutical, etc.
China’s epidemic situation is in a state of normalization, and the sequential strengthening of immunization landing will help to further improve the group immune barrier. China’s current round of strengthening immunization is expected to be more than half, and it is expected that there will still be 600-700 million people in the next three to four months. Lizuzumab v-01, recov and other products are still promoting overseas phase III clinical trials, and it is expected to further enrich Chinese covid-19 vaccine varieties in the future. The global epidemic has eased slightly, but the data such as newly confirmed cases are still at an all-time high. There is a structural imbalance in the global supply of covid-19 vaccine. At present, China’s two covid-19 vaccines are promoting who UL certification, and it is expected to further explore overseas markets in the future. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to covid-19 vaccine related targets: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) bio-b, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) . []
Guosheng Securities: medicine has entered the medium and long-term layout range, with more emphasis on the three factors of “performance valuation chips”
Medicine has entered the medium and long-term layout range. In the medium and short term, it is still bottom-up and pays more attention to the three factors of “performance valuation chips”. Up to now, the “double high problem” has been digested. Although there are many assets with unspeakable short-term valuation, extremely cheap and short-term concerns that are difficult to prove false, they have entered the allocation range in the medium and long term. In the short and medium term, in fact, there is no systematic solution. Recently, there have been problems in the chip structure of the whole market. Our idea is still to select individual stocks from bottom to top. There are three points to sum up: 1) select individual stocks with “fundamental common sense valuation oversold and discount”, in other words, they have fallen to the second-order derivative of the irrational valuation range. 2) The sub areas of “domestic demand policy immunity” and “foreign demand is relatively rigid” are selected to take into account the comprehensive and sudden impact of the current geopolitical environment and medical policy environment, especially the emotional impact. Such as adult class II vaccine, self-control, China covid-19 therapeutic drug industry chain, traditional Chinese medicine, rehabilitation, cdmo, etc. 3) Due to the high degree of chaos in stage trading, the chip factor should be fully considered when bottom reading. []
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) : it’s better to look at the scenery! The valuation of most pharmaceutical companies has reached a very reasonable range
Considering the background of the pharmaceutical industry, on the one hand, the uncertainty caused by the continuous promotion of the centralized purchase policy this year (centralized purchase of consumables, national purchase, alliance purchase, etc.), on the other hand, the short-term pharmaceutical industry sector has not seen clear favorable policies / changes, and there is no upward momentum in the short term. It is advisable to look at the quantity of scenery. The valuation of many pharmaceutical companies has reached a very reasonable range. The uncertainty of changes brought by policies makes many investors unable to start. We suggest the direction configuration of this year: Traditional Chinese medicine (policy friendly + undervalued value) + medical equipment (medical infrastructure) + scientific research reagents and upstream + other directions to find the target from bottom to top.
(1) traditional Chinese medicine: famous brand OTC + innovative traditional Chinese medicine + traditional Chinese medicine chain. We recommend: Guiyang Xintian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002873) , Guizhou Sanli Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603439) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , gushengtang and other targets, and also recommend paying attention to: Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Jiangsu Kanion Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600557) , Tasly Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600535) , Hunan Fangsheng Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603998) , Teyi Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002728) , Guilin Sanjin Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002275) , Zhejiang Shouxiangu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603896) .
(2) medical equipment sector: we recommend paying attention to Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Sonoscape Medical Corp(300633) , Edan Instruments Inc(300206) , Jiangsu Yuyue Medical Equipment And Supply Co.Ltd(002223) , Xiangyumedicalco.Ltd(688626) , Nanjing Vishee Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688580) , Jiangxi Sanxin Medtec Co.Ltd(300453) . In addition, IVD sector will also benefit from medical infrastructure. We recommend paying attention to Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) , Shenzhen Yhlo Biotech Co.Ltd(688575) , Autobio Diagnostics Co.Ltd(603658) , Shenzhen Lifotronic Technology Co.Ltd(688389) , Maccura Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300463) , Tellgen Corporation(300642) , Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) .
(3) scientific research reagents and upstream: we propose to pay attention to Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Suzhou Nanomicro Technology Co.Ltd(688690) , Acrobiosystems Co.Ltd(301080) , Shanghai Titan Scientific Co.Ltd(688133) , Shanghai Aladdin Biochemical Technology Co.Ltd(688179) , Guangzhou Jet Bio-Filtration Co.Ltd(688026) , Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) , Focused Photonics (Hangzhou) Inc(300203) , Truking Technology Limited(300358) , Zhejiangtailin Bioengineering Co.Ltd(300813) .
(4) other bottom-up sectors and companies need to be analyzed according to the subject matter and valuation of the industry and company, and it is proposed to pay attention to: Yantai Zhenghai Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300653) , Medprin Regenerative Medical Technologies Co.Ltd(301033) and other subjects of regenerative medicine; The valuation of the medical service sector is low. We recommend haijiya and gushengtang with high cost performance and expansibility. We suggest paying attention to Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Chaoju Ophthalmology, Jinxin reproduction, etc; Biological products and vaccines need continuous attention. We recommend Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) and Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) , Chengdu Olymvax Biopharmaceuticals Inc(688319) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) etc; For household medical devices, it is recommended to pay attention to Jiangsu Yuyue Medical Equipment And Supply Co.Ltd(002223) , Cofoe Medical Technology Co.Ltd(301087) .
(5) in addition, for the innovative drug sector, it is suggested to pay attention to the innovative drug targets with international ability. We suggest to pay attention to Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Baiji Shenzhou, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Betta Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300558) , Hehuang medicine, kangfang biology, China biopharmaceutical, etc. []
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