After yesterday’s sharp decline, major Asia Pacific stock markets strengthened this morning.
All major A-share indexes rose, of which the gem index rose by more than 3% during the session.
Japan’s stock market and South Korea’s stock market also rose in the morning.
The performance of Hong Kong stocks was relatively weak, with repeated shocks in the morning. The Hang Seng Index hit a new low in the session, but the performance of Hang Seng technology index was relatively strong.
A shares rebounded and pharmaceutical stocks rose
Market data show that the A-share market rebounded in the morning, and the main indexes rose to varying degrees, with more than 3200 stocks rising.
The growth enterprise market index and the Kechuang 50 index were among the top gainers.
As of the morning closing, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.54%, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 1.08%, the gem index rose 2.18%, and the intraday rise was more than 3%.
The large pharmaceutical sector rose sharply, with an overall increase of more than 3%.
Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) once soared by more than 6% during the session, and the market value of the company currently exceeds 300 billion yuan.
Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) recently, the 23rd Meeting of the second board of directors was held to consider and approve the proposal on the second lifting of the restriction period of the special grant of restricted shares granted for the first time by the company’s restricted stock and stock option incentive plan in 2019 and the proposal on the establishment of the company’s long-term environmental objectives.
Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) also rose more than 6% in the session.
Asahi bio, Shanghai Medicilon Inc(688202) , Suzhou Iron Technology Co.Ltd(688329) and other stocks rose by more than 10%. “Yamao” Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) limit.
The new energy track has warmed up again. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) rose more than 5% at one time. Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) once soared by more than 9% during the session, and the stock has risen for four consecutive trading days.
According to the research viewpoint of Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) , with the continuous improvement of the sales structure and quality of new energy vehicles and the continuous introduction of high-quality new models, the supply will drive the change of demand, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to accelerate, and the sales volume is expected to achieve rapid growth.
For photovoltaic, Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) believes that in the medium and long term, “carbon peaking”, “carbon neutralization” and the proportion of non fossil energy in primary energy consumption will reach about 20% / 25% in 2025 / 2030. The goal is clear, and photovoltaic and other new energy will play an important role in energy transformation and carbon emission reduction in the future. Pay attention to the supply-demand relationship under market changes and structural opportunities under technological changes, such as inverter, photovoltaic adhesive film, photovoltaic glass, vertically integrated manufacturers, distributed photovoltaic, consumables and equipment links, photovoltaic support, etc.
In terms of concept stocks, the gold concept stocks that have risen continuously recently have been adjusted, and Shanghai Yimin Commercial Group Co.Ltd(600824) , Beijing Kingee Culture Development Co.Ltd(002721) , Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) have fallen to varying degrees.
Recently, due to the tense geographical relations between Russia and Ukraine, the risk aversion in the international market has heated up rapidly, driving the rise of gold prices and gold stocks for several consecutive days.
According to the research view of China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) , the current global inflation is high, the main commodities are rising obviously, and the market has spread to gold. Gold may gradually evolve from hedging demand to stagflation risk and the bull caused by the expected marginal easing of monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. Gold stocks have fully corrected, and the price earnings ratio is the lowest in the last 17 years.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) believes that the risk of stagflation is accumulated and the value of gold allocation is prominent: high global inflation and the Federal Reserve is in the cycle of raising interest rates, which will face greater stagflation risk in the future, which is good for the gold price. The current trend of higher inflation is global. The reason behind this is the insufficient supply caused by the lack of upstream capital expenditure under the background of warmer demand and carbon neutrality, which is directly reflected in the sharp rise in the prices of crude oil, metals and other commodities. Geopolitical conflict will also further strengthen global inflation. Russia is an important exporter of crude oil, natural gas, nickel, wheat and other commodities in the world, and Ukraine is also an important grain exporter. The conflict itself will affect China’s production and export, and subsequent sanctions from Europe, America and other economies will also hinder supply. Brent and WTI have now exceeded the $100 mark, and there is still a possibility of further upward growth in the future, and the world will face greater inflationary pressure.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) pointed out that due to geopolitical risks, there was a significant inflow of gold ETFs. The haze of short-term war shrouded, and gold, as an important safe haven asset, regained the favor of market funds. SPDR, the world’s largest gold ETF fund, had a net inflow of 42.09 tons and 11.56 tons respectively in the first two months of this year.
While the market rose, northbound funds returned sharply, with a half day net purchase of 6.4 billion yuan. Yesterday, the market fell sharply, and northbound funds sold a net 3.36 billion yuan.
Asia Pacific stock markets generally rebounded
Hong Kong stocks are relatively weak
Due to the great reversal of the US stock market overnight, the Dow Jones index rose nearly 1000 points from its intraday low, and the Asia Pacific market also warmed up sharply this morning.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index stood at 26000 points again, with an intraday increase of more than 1%.
South Korea’s composite index rose more than 1% in the session.
Singapore’s stock market also rose.
However, the gains of the above-mentioned stock markets narrowed towards noon.
The performance of Hong Kong stocks was weak. The Hang Seng index opened higher and went lower, and the intraday low hit a new low in the near future.
Hang Seng technology index rose, with an intraday increase of more than 2%, but the increase also narrowed near noon.
Among the constituent stocks of Hang Seng Index, Yaoming biology, Ali health, Chuangke industry, Budweiser Asia Pacific and Li Ning led the gains.
HSBC Holdings jumped short and opened low, falling about 5% during the session. Longhu group, galaxy entertainment, Petrochina Company Limited(601857) shares and CITIC shares led the decline.
Among the constituent stocks of Hang Seng technology index, Kingdee International, BiliBili SW, Weimeng group, Jinshan software, etc. led the gains.
According to the research viewpoint of China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , the direct and short-term impact of war on the stock market is mainly reflected in the fluctuation of market sentiment and risk preference, and the medium-term impact on the stock market gives way to fundamentals.
According to the research viewpoint of China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , the investment strategy is defensive and counterattack.
The agency believes that in the short term, before the ceasefire of military conflict, the risk aversion in the global market still has inertia and can be based on the defense of risk averse assets, including natural gas, oil, military industry, gold, US debt, US dollar, etc. If the Russian Ukrainian conflict does not cease fire in a short period of one or two weeks, but continues beyond expectations, the strength of energy, gold, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) and other commodities may also exceed expectations.
In the medium and long term, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) believes that there is no systemic risk in the valuation of high-quality assets of A-Shares and Hong Kong shares. In the past two weeks, some high-quality Chinese assets have experienced a deeper correction. As of 20224, the price earnings ratio TTM of all A-Shares was 18.53 times, the earnings yield (reciprocal of price earnings ratio) was 5.39%, close to 2 times the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds, which was 5.58%. This debt performance price ratio level was relatively rare in history. The P / B ratio of Hang Seng index broke the net again to 0.95.
Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) briefly combed the performance of asset prices in some local wars and emergencies around the world after World War II. Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) pointed out that the aforementioned local war had a great impact on the world at that time. From the impact on asset prices:
First, in most cases, the above-mentioned local wars and emergencies did not have a great sustained negative impact on the global stock market (investigating the performance of the day, 5 trading days, 20 trading days and 60 trading days after the event). The major negative impacts were the Korean War, the Kuwait war and the 9-11 incident.
Second, from the comparison between the German stock market and the US stock market (due to the historical length of the data, the German stock market is selected here to represent other markets other than the United States), the adjustment range of the German stock market is significantly greater than that of the US stock market for each local war and emergency.
Third, from the perspective of risk aversion attribute alone, gold and crude oil have certain risk aversion attribute, but the yield range and sustainability are not particularly obvious. Especially after 2000, they fell more and rose less in the impact of several events. Of course, the event shock itself may also change the fundamentals of commodities, which will lead to changes in asset prices other than risk aversion. For example, the international crude oil price rose by more than 100% in the three months after the Kuwait war.
However, in terms of risk warning, Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) pointed out that there are risks such as the macro-economy is less than expected, the overseas market fluctuates sharply, and historical experience does not represent the future.
