As of February 24, Beijing, Fuzhou, Hefei, Changsha, Xiamen, Shanghai and other cities have released the first round of centralized land supply scheme in 2022.
Among them, Beijing is the first city to announce and complete the first round of centralized land supply in 2022, which is of wind vane significance. From the transaction situation, the trend of the land side from stable to cold in the second half of last year has continued this year.
From the transfer results, among the 18 plots transferred in Beijing this time, there are 8 base price transactions, 9 premium transactions and 1 Flow auction, with a total amount of 48.021 billion yuan. The state-owned central enterprises still account for Dabi Jiangshan.
According to the research and analysis of Kerui real estate, the development of the land market in 2022 is still dominated by stability, and the overall market heat will continue to operate at a low level. The differentiation between cities will further intensify, and the low heat cities may further reduce the threshold of land transfer. If they intend to increase reserves, real estate enterprises can pay appropriate attention to the opportunities of income M & A, while real estate enterprises with pressure on the capital chain, We can pay attention to the demands of cooperative development brought by local platform companies.
The policy running in period has expired
Compared with the transactions of last year, an obvious feature of this year’s land auction market is that the time of land supply has moved forward, and many cities that first announced the land transfer plan have almost no or only a few plots in the three rounds of centralized land auction in the past year.
In addition, the first batch of cities to announce the transfer plan also ranked among the best in the country last year. According to the statistics of focus research institute, among the 22 key cities in the first round of pilot, Xiamen and Beijing ranked first and second respectively, and the highest price of the transaction parcel reached 48.71 million yuan / mu and 43.77 million yuan / mu respectively.
After several rounds of centralized land supply in 2021, the running in period of the new policy market has passed, the land transfer work has begun to turn to a stable and orderly way, and many cities have accumulated a series of replicable operating experience.
From the perspective of land supply scale, the guidance of active land supply and active promotion in hot cities is obvious. For example, in Shanghai, where the first round of centralized land supply plan in 2022 was announced yesterday (February 23), 40 pieces of land were sold for residential land, with a total supply area of 215.6 hectares and a total starting price of 85.07 billion yuan.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, believes that the large scale in terms of total supply will play a positive role in improving the relationship between supply and demand this year; From the perspective of supply structure, residential land still accounts for the majority.
In terms of land auction transfer rules, based on the continuation of last year’s land auction rules, some cities have made fine adjustments, such as limiting the transaction price of land and the sales price of real estate developed by plot construction projects. “Multi limit” is still the main way to stabilize land prices in hot cities.
At the same time, in order to ensure the diversification of housing supply in the market, cities have restricted housing enterprises in the construction of affordable housing, resettlement housing, talent housing, rental housing, competition quality and so on.
As mentioned in the 2022 residential land supply plan disclosed by Xiamen on February 22, Xiamen plans to supply 265.95 hectares of residential land in 2022, including 82.72 hectares of property right residential land, 28.06 hectares of rental residential land, accounting for more than 30%, including 21.69 hectares of indemnificatory rental residential land and 6.37 hectares of market-oriented rental residential land, Other residential land is 155.17 hectares.
In terms of enterprise qualification examination and fund management, strict restrictions on the subjects of real estate enterprises participating in competition and preventing real estate enterprises from bidding with the help of vest companies are still the main operation of stabilizing the land market in hot cities. In order to reduce the bidding premium rate and ensure the reasonable profits of real estate enterprises, lottery is still an indispensable and important way to stabilize expectations this year.
Lu Qilin, research director of anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, believes that from the current centralized land supply data released by some cities, the scale of land transfer has increased compared with last year, and the market heat will also increase to a certain extent. For example, the centralized land supply in Shanghai reached 40, and the starting price also increased compared with the first batch last year.
The funds that can be used in the land market are limited
Compared with the second half of last year, an important focus of the market this year is whether the pattern of participating real estate enterprises will change? Under the expectation of relaxing the financing policy, can the real estate enterprises gallop on the battlefield again when they are in danger or under pressure in the capital chain?
According to Kerry statistics, the investment of the top 100 real estate enterprises in the third round of centralized land supply last year decreased by 77%, and private enterprises were more significantly affected. In the first round of centralized land supply, only 19 real estate enterprises did not take the land, while the number of real estate enterprises that did not take the land soared to 52 and 65 in the second and third rounds, and the real estate enterprises that were still taking the land became a minority.
Ding Ruiping is responsible for the local auction, investment and expansion of a waist real estate enterprise. From the market point of view, the operation is relatively stable. There is no news that affects the market operation confidence, such as bond default, financial delay, real estate shutdown and so on. Ding Ruiping told reporters that this year, their enterprise’s land acquisition strategy is to only take zero risk residential projects, and the group immediately carried out personnel adjustment after the Spring Festival. Many departments, including investment and expansion, have been optimized. The salary of employees in the investment and Expansion Department has also shrunk greatly since this year, the quarterly award has been cancelled, and the year-end award will also be reduced.
In addition, from the perspective of real estate enterprises that can successfully issue bonds and finance funds, borrowing new and returning old is a necessary operation for enterprises to maintain normal operation, and the liquidity funds that can be used in the land market are also relatively limited.
For example, the 1.5 billion yuan corporate bonds issued by Jinke this time raised funds for the resale principal and interest of 20 Jinke 01; 3 billion yuan of corporate bonds issued by Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) and the raised funds are used to repay the matured corporate bonds; The 1 billion yuan corporate bonds issued by power construction real estate are intended to be used to repay the resale money of “19 power construction bonds”.
Yan Yuejin believes that the first round of land auction in Beijing has ended, and it is expected that the land market in other cities will also have the possibility of small recovery, but it does not have the conditions and foundation for large recovery.
Lu Qilin believes that from the results of the first round of centralized land supply in Beijing, the emergence of premium plots is an important performance for real estate enterprises to be optimistic about the future market, and the confidence of home buyers has also been improved in combination with the current gradually loose real estate market policy and credit environment. After the Spring Festival in 2022, the house purchase demand index of most first tier cities and hot second tier cities rebounded rapidly. For example, the house purchase demand index of Shanghai, Suzhou, Beijing and other cities has been close to the level before the adjustment of the real estate market last year, indicating that the house purchase demand suppressed for more than half a year will be released in the short term, which will benefit the whole land market in 2022.
