editor's note: international crude oil "breaks through 100", gas shortage in Europe and Asia, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal price center climbs the 1000 yuan mark... After experiencing the global energy shortage in 2021, at the beginning of 2022, the energy problem still affects people's hearts and has won the hot word list in the capital market.
However, amid the voice of rising international energy prices, the news of ensuring people's livelihood, increasing production and stabilizing prices in China is also heard. Under the general direction of steady economic growth in 2022, China's energy market is facing the changeable international situation, and the phased supply-demand relationship is still complex.
What problems will China's foreign energy market face in the new year? Can the effectiveness of China's energy price stabilization policy finally appear? In the context of "double carbon", what is the progress and market impact of China's energy structure adjustment?
Recently, the reporter of securities times · e company actually explored the front-line coal mines and petrochemical enterprises, and communicated with industry listed companies and professional analysis institutions in many ways, in order to gain insight into the market pattern and pulse the trend of energy prices in advance.
with the introduction of the relevant plans of the 14th five year plan in various provincial administrative regions, the development goals of new energy in various regions have also surfaced. According to incomplete statistics, among the more than 20 provincial plans released at present, the installed capacity of new wind power and photovoltaic during the 14th Five Year Plan period will exceed 500gw, and all localities are also actively building new energy industry clusters.
wind and light development goals of some provincial regions in the 14th five year plan
At the same time, the production capacity of the manufacturing end is also expanding. Taking photovoltaic as an example, last year, the output of the four manufacturing links of silicon material, silicon wafer, battery and module increased by 28.8% - 46.9%, and many new players poured into the tracks such as silicon wafer and silicon material; The tower and blade of wind power industry also show similar signs of production expansion.
It is estimated that in order to support the carbon peak before 2030, the proportion of non fossil energy increment in energy consumption increment in the 14th five year plan and the 15th five year plan will increase from 44% in the 13th Five Year Plan period to 100%; To achieve carbon neutrality in 2060, the proportion of non fossil energy consumption will reach more than 80% in 2060, and the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation is expected to reach about 5 billion kw
the capacity of wind power and photovoltaic is frequently increased
Not long ago, Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) disclosed the announcement on investment and construction of the company's integrated production capacity, involving Vietnam's 2.5gw crystal drawing and slicing project, Ningjin 1.3gw high-efficiency battery project, Yiwu 10GW module auxiliary material supporting project and Tuquan 200MW photovoltaic energy storage and power generation project. This is the third integrated capacity expansion announcement issued by the company since August 2020.
According to the latest production expansion plan, Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) said that after the new silicon wafer and battery project is put into operation, it can effectively improve the production capacity of efficient products, meet the market demand for efficient products, and continuously improve the market share and integrated profitability; In addition, after the auxiliary material project is put into operation, it can meet some needs, which is conducive to ensuring the stable supply of raw materials.
Last year, Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) global component shipments ranked second, and the company's production expansion plan is only a microcosm of the whole industry. In January, Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) disclosed a fixed increase scheme of 5 billion yuan. The raised investment projects include 5GW n-type ultra-low-carbon high-efficiency heterojunction battery and 1GW high-efficiency Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) components.
"at present, a number of new entrants have emerged in the tide of photovoltaic production expansion. At the same time, existing enterprises are also strengthening the vertical integrated production capacity layout." An unnamed photovoltaic industry expert talked about two characteristics of industry expansion in an interview with the reporter of E company of the securities times.
According to the reporter's incomplete statistics, in terms of cross-border layout, silicon material can be described as a pastry, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) has planned a production capacity of 600000 tons, Qinghai Lihao and Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) have planned a production capacity of 200000 tons, and Jiangsu Runyang and Xinjiang JINGNUO have also planned a production capacity of 100000 tons; New entrants to silicon track such as Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) , Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) have long been known by the capital market.
In terms of vertical integration layout, Jiangsu Runyang enters the silicon material, Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) cuts into the field of silicon wafers, while others such as Longji, Jingke, Trina Solar and Jingao are expanding battery capacity. It is worth mentioning that under the background of the expansion of battery capacity by integrated manufacturers, although the shipments of the top five professional battery manufacturers increased in 2021, the growth rate has decreased from 81% of the previous year to 36%.
Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) is mainly engaged in electroplating diamond line, which is the main consumable for silicon wafer cutting. It has also expanded production recently. Zhou Xiang, the company's board secretary, told reporters that the company plans to carry out the efficiency improvement project of the 12th line machine at the same time as the Fulong production expansion project. It is expected that the annual production capacity will reach 120 million kilometers by the end of this year. "The project was started because of the release of downstream production capacity in the first quarter and the growth of demand for diamond line."
According to the data provided by China Photovoltaic Industry Association, in 2021, China's polysilicon output was 505000 tons, silicon wafer output 227gw, battery output 198gw and module output 182gw, with a year-on-year increase of 28.8%, 40.7%, 46.9% and 46.1% respectively. The output value of the four manufacturing links exceeded 750 billion yuan. This set of data reflects more intuitive results of production expansion.
Referring to the production capacity layout, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) the relevant person in charge told reporters that the company's monocrystalline silicon headquarters is located in Xi'an, covering the production layout of Shaanxi, Ningxia, Yunnan, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Malaysia and Vietnam. Ningxia and Malaysia have a whole industrial chain from rod pulling, slicing, battery and components; Yunnan mainly includes pulling rod, slicing and battery. The production capacity of batteries and components is mainly in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and components are in Vietnam. "For Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) business objectives, the silicon wafer industry hopes to maintain a 45% market share and the component sector hopes to achieve a 30% market share."
However, the B-side of production expansion may cause the imbalance of the supply chain. In the past two years, this scene has indeed been staged in the photovoltaic industry. The above industry experts told reporters that the mismatching of the production expansion cycle of each link at the photovoltaic manufacturing end is one of the reasons for the imbalance of the supply chain. For example, the production expansion cycle of silicon wafer, battery and module is short, but the production expansion cycle of polysilicon and photovoltaic glass is long, and the production energy of each link of the supply chain is mismatched. "Compared with the expansion of production, the coordinated development of supply chain deserves more attention."
Take polycrystalline silicon with prominent supply and demand problems in the past two years as an example. Last year, China's polycrystalline silicon production capacity (excluding trial production) reached 520000 tons, while the global polycrystalline silicon production capacity increased rapidly to 1-1.2 million tons in 2022. Ma Haitian, Executive Deputy Secretary General of silicon branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, told reporters that the high profit of polysilicon is temporary. By the end of 2022, the price of polysilicon will fall back to a relatively reasonable level. "As the world's leading industry, China's crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry is also accumulated in huge sunk capital. The difficulties encountered in the future industrial development will be greater than expected."
polysilicon production expansion plans of some Chinese Enterprises
" under the background of carbon neutralization goal, the whole industry should look at the safety of photovoltaic capacity structure from the perspective of development.
From the perspective of the enterprise itself, it needs to make strategic planning from a long-term perspective, accurately grasp the trend and rhythm of industrial development, and ensure the balance and stability of enterprise production and operation. "the above person in charge of Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) told reporters.
The scene of industry wide production expansion also occurs in the wind power industry, Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) plans to build four new tower factories, which are located in Puyang, Henan, Tongliao, Inner Mongolia, Beihai, Guangxi and Jingmen, Hubei. It is expected to achieve a tower capacity of 1.2 million tons / year by the end of 2023. In terms of marine engineering equipment, Germany and Sheyang marine engineering bases have made steady progress, and it is expected to form a 600000 T / a marine engineering capacity by the end of 2022
hydrogen energy and energy storage are popular in the market
According to the prediction of Bloomberg new energy finance, there will be more than five new markets in the world to increase energy storage requirements in photovoltaic bidding this year; The total scale of global optical storage power station projects will double this year; Meanwhile, in at least four markets, more than half of the new household photovoltaic systems will be equipped with energy storage.
Recently, the two major power grid companies announced their plans in the field of energy storage. The State Grid strives to increase the installed capacity of pumping and storage power stations in the company's business area from 26.3 million kW to 100 million KW and electrochemical energy storage from 3 million kW to 100 million KW by 2030. China Southern Power Grid said that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the company will orderly promote the construction of pumped storage power stations, explore and promote the construction and operation of new energy storage power stations, the installed capacity of peak shaving and frequency modulation power supply will exceed 15 million KW, and the scale of new energy storage will reach 2 million KW.
Since last year, many provinces have issued policies requiring a certain proportion of energy storage for newly developed wind and light projects, but from the feedback of all parties, the enthusiasm is not high. "There are still disputes over the mandatory requirements for the allocation of energy storage. Specifically, the investment cost recovery mechanism of energy storage has not been improved. At the present stage, the investment cost has been increased according to the law, and no effective income has been formed." The above industry experts told reporters.
Taking the situation of an iron and steel enterprise obtained by the reporter as an example, its noon photovoltaic on grid price is about 0.39 yuan / kWh lower than the peak electricity price at 17-22, which is not enough to support the use of the peak shift and valley filling function of 0.5 yuan / kWh energy storage battery. Without other subsidies, it is not enough to encourage the local distributed photovoltaic to spontaneously configure energy storage for peak shift and 100% self use of photovoltaic power generation.
It is worth mentioning that recently, the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration issued the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan, which puts forward that by 2025, the new energy storage will enter the stage of large-scale development from the initial stage of commercialization and have the conditions for large-scale commercial application; By 2030, new energy storage will be fully market-oriented.
The above industry experts told reporters that a series of policies have clarified the main position of the new energy storage independent market, encouraged energy storage to participate in the auxiliary service market as an independent market main body, and encouraged exploration and construction of shared energy storage; Next, we should improve the price mechanism of new energy storage and the incentive mechanism of "new energy + energy storage" projects.
Like energy storage, hydrogen energy is also popular. From the situation of a shares, many listed companies have announced that they have hydrogen fuel cell business or subsidiaries engaged in hydrogen energy industry. In addition, at the end of January, the guidelines for the establishment of 2022 energy industry standard plan issued by the national energy administration showed that hydrogen energy was listed as the key direction of the establishment of 2022 energy industry standard plan.
Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) the relevant person in charge told reporters that as one of China's five major energy comprehensive bases, Xinjiang is rich in natural resources such as coal, oil and gas, wind and light, and has natural advantages in hydrogen production. At the same time, the performance of lithium batteries in alpine areas will decline significantly, and the advantages of pure electric vehicles are not there. Therefore, Xinjiang has the conditions to develop hydrogen energy and hydrogen energy vehicles. Based on this consideration, the company has formulated the outline of strategic planning for the development of hydrogen energy industry chain (2022-2030)
The person in charge of said that the Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) hydrogen energy industry chain planning will make full use of the characteristics of hydrogen energy with the dual attributes of energy and energy storage at the same time, combined with the carbon reduction needs of energy consuming enterprises in naomao Lake area, take the existing chemical hydrogen production (gray hydrogen) as the basis, and take the new energy (wind room photovoltaic) power generation - electrolytic water hydrogen production (green hydrogen) as a breakthrough to cultivate and drive hydrogen production, hydrogen transmission Rapid development of hydrogen storage, hydrogen use and related businesses.
In addition, Guangdong No.2 Hydropower Engineering Company Ltd(002060) recently announced the signing of the strategic cooperation framework agreement with Wuhai municipal government of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Jiangsu Xingbang Energy Technology Co., Ltd., with a total investment of 16.8-18.8 billion yuan for the hydrogen energy industry chain. The project plans to establish an international academician future zero hydrocarbon energy science and innovation center, build two carbon neutral hydrogen power industrial parks, and build three industrial clusters in the upstream, middle and downstream.
Last year, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) established a hydrogen energy subsidiary, which once attracted the attention of the market. At that time, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) president Li Zhenguo told the reporter of Securities Times e company that Longji began to pay attention to and layout the electrolytic hydrogen production of renewable energy as early as 2018, and formed technology accumulation in the fields of electrolytic hydrogen production equipment and photovoltaic hydrogen production. In the next step, it will carry out the layout of hydrogen energy industrialization.
With regard to the latest progress of hydrogen energy business, the person in charge of Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) told reporters that at present, Longji hydrogen energy focuses on large-scale alkaline water electrolysis hydrogen production equipment and is committed to realizing the lowest green hydrogen lcoh. Its products have the advantages of high performance, modularization, intelligence and high quality; At the same time, the layout of green electricity to green hydrogen solutions to promote the progress of hydrogen energy technology. "We believe that photovoltaic + energy storage is the ultimate energy of mankind in the future. There will be huge development space in the fields of green hydrogen equipment, green hydrogen production and application."
the person in charge told reporters that in the current development process of green hydrogen, it is suggested to pay attention to the following issues. First, the industry should define the standard of "green hydrogen", clarify the proportion of "green hydrogen" during the 14th five year plan and the 15th five year plan, put forward the development path of "green hydrogen" industry, and improve the role and value of "green hydrogen" in industrial decarbonization, Encourage hydrogen production by water electrolysis with renewable energy.
Second, bring green hydrogen management into the energy management system, formulate green hydrogen price policy, give appropriate subsidies and incentives to green hydrogen, continue to deepen and improve the carbon trading market and explore carbon tax policy; Third, establish a national large-scale green hydrogen "leader" demonstration base in areas with renewable energy power generation resources and green hydrogen consumption, encourage the promotion of advanced product technology, open up the industrial chain and realize the integration of "production, storage, transmission and use"
the new energy industry cluster has accelerated its formation
On February 22, the "14th five year plan" of modern energy system and carbon peak and carbon neutralization plan of Henan Province was printed and distributed. The document proposes that by 2025, wind and light in the province will add more than 10 million kilowatts of grid connected capacity respectively. Incomplete statistics show that at present, more than 20 provincial administrative regions have issued relevant plans for the 14th five year plan, involving about 528gw of new wind and light installed capacity during the 14th five year plan.
the reporter noted that recently, Zhejiang Province issued the implementation opinions on fully and accurately implementing the new development concept and doing a good job in carbon peak carbon neutralization, which proposed to implement the "scenery doubling" project, promote the development mode of "photovoltaic + agriculture, fisheries and forestry", promote the photovoltaic construction of the whole county, and build several million kilowatt offshore wind power bases, Comprehensively promote the development of the whole chain of hydrogen energy production, storage, transmission and utilization.
According to the "14th five year plan" for energy development in Gansu Province, by 2025, the sustainable development capacity of Hexi Corridor clean energy base represented by new energy will be comprehensively improved, the construction of Longdong comprehensive energy base has made important progress, a new power system dominated by new energy will be basically established, and a large-scale power transmission development pattern will be formed.
Gansu Province plans to have 32.03gw of installed photovoltaic power generation by 2025, an average annual increase of 33.97% compared with 9.66gw at the end of 2020; The scale of wind power will reach 24.8gw in 2025, with an average annual growth of 22.92% compared with 13.73gw in 2020.
As far as local new energy construction is concerned, the current concern is the large base project. Among them, the first batch of large base projects involve 19 provinces including Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Gansu, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Anhui, Hunan and Xinjiang, with a total scale of 97.05gw.
According to the notice of the national energy administration, like the first batch of large bases, the second batch of large bases mainly consider deserts, Gobi and desert areas. However, considering that these areas have limited power consumption capacity, some of them will be absorbed and sent out through UHV transmission channels.
"At present, large base projects are being implemented in an orderly manner." The above-mentioned experts told reporters that the first batch of large bases, in accordance with the principle of "one mature, one start", have made contributions for a long time, do not engage in sports start-up, and do not rush to form a "scale" of start-up; The second batch of large bases proposed to meet the "four elements", including not involving the ecological red line, relying on the existing power transmission channel, supporting coal power flexibility transformation and various peak shaving measures.
In addition, the listed companies also focus on opportunities such as local distributed photovoltaic development and promotion of the whole county. For example, Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) plans to cooperate with Hongdong county government and Shanxi Huaxiang Group Co.Ltd(603112) on the development and construction of Hongdong 1GW photovoltaic power generation project and supporting photovoltaic support project, with a total investment of 4.3 billion yuan; Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) it is planned to invest about 20 billion yuan to build photovoltaic power generation projects in Shangrao city within five years, and focus on promoting the construction of roof distributed photovoltaic in various development zones in Shangrao City, so as to improve the self supply capacity of energy in various development zones.
The characteristics of cluster development of photovoltaic manufacturing projects are also gradually emerging. Recently, major projects in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia have been intensively signed. Among them, the new energy field involves a total investment of 49.09 billion yuan, including the hydrogen energy industry integration project invested and constructed by Jiangsu Xingbang Energy Technology Co., Ltd; The whole photovoltaic industry chain project invested and constructed by Oriental hope group; The 10GW single crystal battery module project invested and constructed by Inner Mongolia Dongyuan Technology Co., Ltd. will help Wuhai build a new energy industry base integrating wind, solar and hydrogen storage.
for another example, Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , Xinte energy and other enterprises have set their sights on Baotou, Inner Mongolia, and the planned investment projects involve upstream and downstream industrial chains such as industrial silicon and polysilicon; Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) and others have business layout in Wutongqiao District, Leshan City, forming an industrial chain of silicon material, pull rod and slicing.
Reporter observation: improve the reliability of new energy supply, actively and steadily promote the construction of new power system
The action plan for reaching the carbon peak by 2030 released in October last year proposed to speed up the construction of new power systems, build new power systems with a gradually increasing proportion of new energy, and promote the large-scale optimal allocation of clean power resources.
From the context of energy structure adjustment in European and American countries, it has experienced the development path from coal, oil to natural gas and then to renewable energy. Due to the early start of economic and social development in European and American countries, most of them have reached the peak of carbon. With the improvement of the use ratio of natural gas and renewable energy, carbon reduction is gradually realized.
Looking at the situation of China, the goals of carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutralization in 2060 have been set. However, China's resource endowment, especially the high external dependence on natural gas, determines that it is difficult for China to copy the carbon reduction path of European and American countries. In order to deal with this situation, renewable energy such as wind and light need to further step into the front stage of energy structure transformation.
In fact, whether hydropower, nuclear power or biomass power generation, the additional incremental space is very limited at least until 2030. Among many renewable energy sources, the leapfrog development of wind and light has become an industry consensus, and the proportion will further increase.
According to the situation that the incremental power of wind and light is equal, during the "14th five year plan" period, the newly installed capacity of wind and light is about 500 million KW, and during the "15th five year plan" period, it is between 600-700 million KW. With the gradual formation of a new power system with new energy as the main body, the structure and operation mode of the power system need to be fundamentally changed.
Of course, the development of new energy also needs to be targeted. The central economic work conference in 2021 proposed that the gradual withdrawal of traditional energy should be based on the safe and reliable substitution of new energy. There are two meanings. One is that new energy must be safe and reliable, and the other is that traditional energy and new energy still need to be optimized and combined for coordinated development.
In terms of the former, the stability of new energy power generation is not strong, and its adjustability and controllability are weak, which is generally recognized in the industry. With the increase of the proportion of new energy in the whole power system, it must realize the flexible resource allocation and scheduling of "going up" in the peak period and "going down" in the low peak period. However, the data during the power rationing period in Northeast China in late September last year showed that the output of new energy was less than 10% of the installed capacity. It can be seen that there is still a long way to go to achieve safe, reliable and flexible regulation of new energy such as wind and light.
The reliability of new energy also has another meaning, that is, to maintain the stability of the supply chain. Obviously, the prices of photovoltaic industry chain have fluctuated greatly in the past two years, and the mismatch between upstream and downstream supply and demand capacity does not meet this requirement.
At present, the global energy and power supply and demand situation has undergone profound changes. Since the third quarter of last year, with the gradual recovery of the global economy and the rapid recovery of energy consumption, the pressure on international coal, oil and natural gas supply and demand has increased and prices have continued to rise. There is a shortage of energy and power in many countries. The energy shortage in 2021 began in Europe and spread to the whole world.
Based on this situation, new energy should have broader development space. Of course, the coordinated development of traditional energy and new energy has also been mentioned earlier. In terms of China's basic national conditions dominated by coal, we should pay attention to the clean and efficient utilization of coal, increase the consumption capacity of new energy, and promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy.
For example, with the increase of the proportion of new energy, the problems of insufficient power supply during small-scale new energy generation and difficult consumption during large-scale new energy generation will occur frequently alternately. The key to solving this problem also depends on the installed capacity of thermal power and the flexibility of thermal power.
It is worth mentioning that in the process of promoting the "double carbon" goal, wind and light new energy should also pay attention to the integrated development with other industries, such as the integration of photovoltaic power generation and information data, the construction of photovoltaic (photovoltaic + 5g) in communication base stations and photovoltaic direct power supply in big data centers; The integration of photovoltaic power generation and transportation, the integration of optical storage and charging, photovoltaic DC charging, and the development mode of oil, electricity and hydrogen integrated energy service station proposed by traditional oil enterprises.
