In the past 20 years, China's hydropower field has experienced rapid development. A world-class hydropower station has been built. By the end of 2021, the total installed capacity of hydropower in China had reached 391gw, nearly four times that of 20 years ago, accounting for almost one third of the total installed capacity of hydropower in the world. For the global hydropower equipment manufacturing giants, as the world's largest hydropower market, China has undoubtedly become the core of expanding business. The rapid expansion of the market also makes China's hydropower industry an extremely competitive arena.
In the future, the above trend will not slow down, but will further intensify. Not only the development of conventional hydropower, but also the grand pumped storage plan proposed by the Chinese government in another market segment has excited hydropower giants. As the most mature high-capacity energy storage mode at present, pumped storage will provide important support for the safe and stable operation of power system and an important guarantee for the large-scale development of renewable energy.
According to the medium and long term development plan for pumped storage (2021-2035) issued by the National Energy Administration last September, the total scale of pumped storage power stations put into operation in China is 32.49 million kW (Note: 1GW = 1 million KW). By 2025, the total scale of pumped storage power stations will double that of the 13th five year plan to more than 62 million KW; By 2030, the total scale of pumped storage will double that of the 14th five year plan to about 120 million KW.
The document separates pumped storage from hydropower for the first time. It is China's pumped storage development plan with the most complete regional coverage, the most complete industrial development system and the largest planned development volume, marking the opening of the accelerated development mode of the industry. At the same time, the national policy also further promotes the development of pumped storage by rationalizing the electricity price mechanism and other measures.
"The installed capacity of hydropower in China accounts for about one sixth of China's total installed capacity of electricity. As a renewable energy of no less importance than wind energy and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , hydropower has a very broad space for development in the future." Stephen Lewis, President and CEO of Voith hydropower Asia Pacific region and President of Shanghai Voith Hydropower Equipment Co., Ltd., said when accepting surging news recently. The reason why he believes in this is that wind energy and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) are intermittent energy, and their large-scale development must be matched by energy storage facilities. "Even if there may not be too many new projects of large hydropower stations in China in the future, there will be huge investment in the field of pumped storage."
Long Jiewen talked about his exchange of China's medium and long-term development plans for pumped storage with his colleagues at the German headquarters. "They are deeply impressed by these plans and believe that this is an important measure for the Chinese government to achieve decarbonization. China's investment in the field of pumped storage has exceeded many people's imagination."
In terms of technical principle, pumped storage power station is like a "large battery" made of water, which converts electric energy into potential energy of water when the load of power grid is low, and then converts water energy into electric energy when the load is high. Compared with coal power, gas power and other flexible power sources that can cooperate with new energy power generation, the advantages of pumped storage power station are "more flexible" and faster start and stop speed. It takes only tens of seconds to minutes from shutdown state to full load operation. At present, the electrochemical energy storage capacity is still difficult to reach the scale of system level peak regulation. The daily regulation of pumped storage power station is generally 5-6 hours.
According to the data of the national energy administration, by 2030, the total installed capacity of wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation in China is expected to reach more than 1.2 billion kw. By 2035, the maximum peak valley difference of China's power system will exceed 1 billion kw. There is a huge demand for flexible regulation of power supply in the power system. Large scale new energy grid connection urgently needs a large number of regulated power supply to provide high-quality auxiliary services. At the aforementioned medium and long-term development planning media briefing, Xiang Haiping, chief engineer of the national energy administration, said that pumped storage has various functions such as peak shaving, valley filling, frequency modulation, phase modulation, energy storage, accident standby and black start. It is a green, low-carbon, clean and flexible regulated power supply for the power system with the most mature technology, the best economy and the most conditions for large-scale development.
As a senior participant in China's hydropower industry, long Jiewen said that Voith's hydro generator units are all over China's major hydropower projects. Shanghai Voith Hydropower Equipment Co., Ltd., located in Minhang, Shanghai, has provided more than 200 units for 55 hydropower stations in China, with a total installed capacity of about 66gw Among the top ten hydropower stations in China, Voith has provided turbines / generator sets for eight of them. In Wudongde Hydropower Station, the fourth largest hydropower station in China and the seventh largest hydropower station in the world, which was fully put into operation last year, Voith supplied the hydraulic turbine generator unit with the largest single unit capacity in hydropower history at that time. All this can be traced back to Voith's long history in China: as early as 1910, it provided water turbine generator units for Yunnan shilongba hydropower station, China's first hydropower station.
According to the data disclosed in the medium and long term development plan for pumped storage (2021-2035) (Exposure Draft) in August 2021, it is preliminarily estimated that the new investment scale is about 1.8 trillion yuan, including about 900 billion yuan during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
Different from that usually concentrated in Southwest China, the site selection range of pumped storage power stations is much broader. The medium and long-term planning defines the key layout areas of pumped storage projects in North China, Northeast China, East China, central China and South China. The plan points out that China has carried out a national survey of pumped storage site resources. Considering the geographical location, topography and geology, water source conditions, reservoir inundation, environmental impact, engineering technology, preliminary economy and other factors, the resource stations are surveyed and screened nationwide, which are distributed in 29 provinces (autonomous regions and cities) except Beijing and Shanghai.
Therefore, not only the Chinese and foreign equipment manufacturers who want to get orders, but also the project investment developers have already actively invested in the preemption of high-quality site resources. At present, the State Grid Xinyuan, China Southern Power Grid and the Three Gorges group under the State Grid, as well as the "new five power generation" including CGN, all hold a number of approved pumped storage projects.
"We predict that from now on to 2026, there will be bidding for pumped storage projects with a total installed capacity of about 80gw in China." Long Jiewen explained that in 2022, there will probably be project bidding needs from the State Grid, China Southern Power Grid and the Three Gorges group. "The demand is slowly released, so this year and next year, we will receive 8 to 9 bidding demands. By 2024, 2025 or 2026, the number of bidding for pumped storage power stations may reach 15 or 20 every year."
Facing the surging market demand, he also expressed his views on the industrial chain, "The design institute works day and night to design and closely cooperate with the whole supply chain. Where is the bottleneck of this chain? It is the imbalance between future market demand and existing production capacity. Therefore, the key lies in the close cooperation of the whole industrial chain from design, production and manufacturing to installation and commissioning to deal with the sudden outbreak of market demand."
Long Jiewen told surging news that Voith has provided about 250 units to pumped storage power stations around the world, with a total installed capacity of 30GW Over the past five years, Voith's market share in China's pumped storage industry has exceeded 15%. Relying on global experience and localized design and manufacturing, it is confident to grasp new market opportunities in China's pumped storage field.
