On February 23, A-share semiconductor companies ushered in a long lost rising market. The China Securities all index Semiconductor Index closed up 6.01%, becoming the leading sector. The surge in the semiconductor sector is the result of the resonance of multiple factors.
Good performance is the most direct catalyst. The semiconductor companies that recently released the performance express showed outstanding performance, Kingsemi Co.Ltd(688037) (688037. SH) increased by 20%, Puya Semiconductor (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688766) (688766. SH) increased by 15.43%, Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) (300782. SZ) increased by 13.68%, Leaguer (Shenzhen) Microelectronics Corp(688589) (688589. SH) increased by 9.06%.
Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) previously, the net profit in 2021 was expected to be 2.05 billion yuan to 2.157 billion yuan, and the performance express showed that it was 2.139 billion yuan; Puya Semiconductor (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688766) the net profit in 2021 is expected to be 260 million yuan to 300 million yuan, and the performance express shows that it is 293 million yuan. The net profits of the two companies are close to the upper limit of performance forecast. Kingsemi Co.Ltd(688037) it is estimated that the net profit in 2021 will be 735 million yuan to 800 million yuan, and the performance express will be 772 million yuan, slightly higher than the performance forecast center.
Secondly, the tense situation in Russia and Ukraine has made the market expect the price rise of core shortage, which has also become an important catalytic factor in the market.
Palladium is one of the raw materials in semiconductor packaging. If the chemical precipitation palladium layer is sandwiched between nickel and gold, the reliability of gold wire bonding process can be improved. According to the data of the U.S. Geological Survey, the palladium mine output of Russia in 2021 was 74 tons, accounting for 37% of the global output. It is the second largest palladium mine producer in the world after South Africa.
The rare gas represented by neon is an important part of wafer manufacturing. Neon and krypton can be used in lithography process, and xenon can be used in semiconductor etching process. When the noble gas is excited under high pressure, it will produce light with fixed wavelength and become the light source of the lithography machine. Rare gas is a by-product of the iron and steel industry. At present, an industrial pattern of crude gas separation in Russia and refined in Ukraine has been formed for export to the world.
However, the market may be more hyped about the semiconductor supply chain security caused by the situation in Russia and Ukraine.
The downstream of palladium metal is mainly used in chemical industry, automobile exhaust catalysis and other fields, and the consumption of semiconductors is relatively small. Even if the supply of palladium is tight, semiconductors can "seize" the consumption of palladium from other industries due to their high product value. In addition, there is a mutual substitution relationship between palladium and other platinum group metals as catalysts. When palladium is insufficient, it can be replaced by platinum with close price.
In terms of rare gases, China is a large iron and steel country in the world. At present, China has basically mastered the purification technology of rare gases, and the production process is relatively mature. Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co.Ltd(002549) (002549. SZ) previously said in investor exchanges that the global market scale of rare gases is about US $500 million and the price fluctuates greatly. Therefore, the previous pattern of the global rare gas industry dominated by Ukraine is more due to the narrow market space than the "neck".
According to the rare gas import and export information in 2021 released by the gas circle, China's exports of neon, krypton and xenon in 2021 were 65000 cubic meters, 25000 cubic meters and 900 cubic meters respectively.
Relatively speaking, the semiconductor index in the historically undervalued range is the biggest backing for the semiconductor rebound. After nearly eight months of adjustment, the current price earnings ratio (TTM) of China Securities all index semiconductor index is 60.72 times, near the low point of nearly three years. Considering that 2021q4 semiconductor company still has good performance, the valuation level of semiconductor index will be further reduced after the 2021 annual report is released.
Data source: wind, interface news research department
