Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) : the situation in Russia and Ukraine is confusing! Iran’s production capacity is expected to return, firmly optimistic about the prosperity of the petrochemical sector
The pattern of tight supply and demand fundamentals of crude oil continues, the geopolitical situation is changeable, and the short-term geopolitical risk premium of crude oil rises. Over the years, affected by the epidemic and low oil price cycle, the global oil and gas exploration expenditure has remained low. We are firmly optimistic about the long-term prosperity of the oil and gas industry. In the follow-up, we will focus on the implementation of OPEC + production increase, the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, the progress of the negotiation of the Iranian nuclear agreement, the spread of Omikron strain, the progress of vaccination and the development of covid-19 specific drugs.
We expect that the global crude oil supply and demand pattern will remain tight in 2022, so we continue to be firmly optimistic about the prosperity of the petrochemical sector. We suggest paying attention to the following subscripts: first, the upstream sector, PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) ; Second, oil service sector, China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) , Offshore Oil Engineering Co.Ltd(600583) , Cnooc Energy Technology & Services Limited(600968) , Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation(600871) , Bomesc Offshore Engineering Company Limited(603727) ; Third, large private refining and chemical sector, Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) ; Fourth, light hydrocarbon cracking sector, satellite chemistry and Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) ; Fifth, coal to olefins, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) ; The sixth and third largest chemical white horse, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) and Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) . []
East Asia Qianhai Securities: the gap between supply and demand of crude oil continues to expand, and the upward trend of crude oil may be difficult to reverse
The economic improvement will stimulate the demand for crude oil, which will continue to expand the gap between supply and demand of crude oil, and the upward trend of crude oil may be difficult to reverse. During the epidemic, countries introduced active fiscal policies to stimulate the accelerated recovery of macro-economy. From the debt situation of countries, the euro area has been in deficit since the outbreak. By the third quarter of 2021, its deficit accounted for 4.78% of GDP, and the cumulative deficit of the US federal government in 2021 was as high as US $2.58 trillion. Under the continuous stimulation of the global central bank, the global economic recovery was obvious, and the GDP of the United States increased by 5.5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter. With the strengthening of macro economy, the operating rate of refineries downstream of crude oil has rebounded significantly. As of December 2021, the operating rate of refineries in the United States has reached 89.82%. Looking to the future, OPEC predicts that the global demand for crude oil will reach 100.8 million barrels per day in 2022, and the supply-demand gap will increase by 1.01 million barrels per day compared with 2021. With the continuous expansion of the supply-demand gap of crude oil, it may be difficult to reverse the rising trend of crude oil price in the future. []
The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) Securities: the problem of energy security is more prominent under the background of high oil prices
China’s energy security issues still drive the development of the industry. In 2020, the external dependence of Petrochina Company Limited(601857) and natural gas rose to 73% and 43% respectively. Under the background of high oil prices, the problem of energy security is more prominent. On February 4, China and Russia signed an agreement on Russia’s supply of 100 million tons of oil to China through Kazakhstan for a period of 10 years. At the same time, China and Russia signed a second long-term natural gas contract for 30 years. Therefore, on the whole, only by vigorously exploiting conventional oil and gas resources and unconventional resources such as shale oil and gas can we further ensure national energy security. Give the oil and gas engineering industry a “buy” rating, focusing on Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co.Ltd(002353) , Nanjing Develop Advanced Manufacturing Co.Ltd(688377) , China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) , Sinopec Oilfield Equipment Corporation(000852) , Harbin Boshi Automation Co.Ltd(002698) , Sf Diamond Co.Ltd(300179) and so on. []
Minsheng Securities: optimistic about the upward fluctuation of crude oil price! The conflict between Russia and Ukraine affected the market’s expectation of a reduction in global crude oil supply
Geopolitics, the weakening influence of Omicron and the decline of crude oil inventories are the short-term catalytic factors leading to the recent rise in crude oil prices. Among them, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine affects the market’s expectation of the reduction of global crude oil supply: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has a long history. Recently, Russia and Ukraine have once again entered the tension on the edge of conflict. Due to Russia’s important position in the world crude oil market (according to OPEC world, Russia’s daily average crude oil production in 2021q4 is 10.8 million barrels / day, accounting for more than 10% of the world’s total output), the market is worried that Russia will be subject to economic export sanctions due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which will affect the supply of crude oil market. Among them, Russian crude oil exports account for about 42% – 45% of the output. If Russian crude oil exports are sanctioned, the impact on the supply of global crude oil market will be greater than 5%.
What about the price of crude oil in 2022? Optimistic about the upward fluctuation of crude oil prices. We believe that the supply and demand of the global crude oil market will maintain a tight balance in 2022: (1) supply side: according to the data of Rosneft, the total output of Russian crude oil in 2021 is about 10.9 million barrels / day, which is close to the level in 2019. Russian oil minister Novak said that Russia’s crude oil output will rise to 11.33 million barrels / day by may 2022. Therefore, The future increment space of Russian crude oil production is about 430000 barrels / day, and the increment is limited. (2) Demand side: the impact of the epidemic has been effectively controlled, and the demand is expected to exceed the pre epidemic level. According to OPEC’s monthly report in January 2022, the global demand for crude oil is expected to reach 100.79 million barrels / day in 2022, exceeding the demand of 100.10 million barrels in 2019. To sum up, we believe that in 2022, the fundamentals of global crude oil supply and demand are expected to continue to maintain a tight balance, which will continue to drive the upward fluctuation of crude oil prices.
In terms of investment suggestions, crude oil prices may continue to fluctuate upward in 2022 and remain at a medium high level throughout the year. Therefore, we suggest paying attention to the upstream crude oil mining industry whose profitability benefits from the rise of crude oil and the oil service industry which benefits from the increase of capital expenditure under high oil prices. We suggest paying attention to Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) and Zhongman Petroleum And Natural Gas Group Corp.Ltd(603619) with new crude oil mining and sales business. []
Dongzheng Futures: Russia is an important crude oil production and export country in the world. Europe and Russia are very dependent on
Russia is an important crude oil producer and exporter in the world. Europe and Russia have a deep dependence in the field of energy, so the possibility of sanctions on Russian crude oil exports is low. Short term risk premium may lead to further rise in oil prices, but it is difficult to become a factor to continuously push up oil prices. Europe is at the center of the storm, Brent’s increase is much greater than WTI, and the price difference between the two is expected to narrow in the future.
From a fundamental point of view, the lower supply than expected is an important price boost factor. The problem that OPEC + production is less than expected is becoming more and more prominent.
The output of the United States has a certain recovery potential. The sharp rise in the number of drilling rigs is a signal of the recovery of capital expenditure, but it does not mean that the capital expenditure constraints have failed. Large producers are cautious about increasing production. The impact of the epidemic has gradually subsided. The decline of low inventory and idle capacity will continue to benefit oil prices. The upward trend has not reached the inflection point. The main risk factors are concerned about the progress of the negotiation of the Iranian nuclear agreement. []
CITIC Futures: natural gas prices will fall after the heating season! The long-term tight balance between supply and demand is difficult to change
After the heating season, the price will fall, but the long-term tight balance between supply and demand is difficult to change. In the short term, Europe’s local production rebounded, Russia’s pipeline gas supply recovered slightly, the maintenance volume of global liquefaction capacity decreased, and the Eurasia price difference is conducive to the inflow of LNG into Europe; At the same time, the heating season is coming to an end, high gas prices restrain the demand of industry and power, and the price of natural gas in Europe will fall. For a long time, Europe is still determined to “de coal” and has a positive attitude towards the development of natural gas. Natural gas still plays an important role in power peak shaving, industrial fuel, urban combustion and heating. At the same time, it is difficult to change the situation that the supply side of Europe is controlled by others, and Europe faces more fierce competition in pipeline gas and LNG trade. Therefore, the tight balance between supply and demand is expected to be maintained for a long time, and the focus of European natural gas prices will still move upward. []
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) : focus on three variables! What are the investment opportunities in the petrochemical sector?
Under high oil prices, what variables need to be paid attention to and what investment opportunities are there in the petrochemical sector? 1) On the demand side, whether based on IEA forecast or OPEC forecast, the global crude oil demand will reach or slightly exceed the previous high level in 2019 in 2022. Aviation kerosene demand is the last link in the repair of global oil demand.
2) under the pressure of carbon neutralization, the recovery rate of shale oil capital expenditure, drilling activities and production data has been slower than expected in 2021. Capital expenditure and supply elasticity are expected to return in 2022.
3) the output of OPEC is lower than expected, and the market is worried that the actual output increasing capacity of OPEC is limited. Led by Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates, the three Gulf countries still have the capacity to increase production (we estimate it at about 3.2 million barrels / day). We pay attention to the willingness of the three Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia, to increase production, which determines whether the market can be balanced from May 2022.
From the perspective of investment, 1) pay attention to the trading opportunities in the oil service sector, with China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) being the first; 2) Among the oil companies, CNOOC is the first. Focus on Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) , and Zhongman Petroleum And Natural Gas Group Corp.Ltd(603619) ; 3) Alternative route chemicals benefit from the high central oil price. Satellite chemistry and Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) are recommended. []
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) : the supply gap of biodiesel in Europe is expected to gradually enlarge, driving the increase of biodiesel import demand
Europe is the world’s largest production and marketing region, and its demand is growing rapidly driven by policies: the global biodiesel production will be about 42.9 million tons in 2020, the compound growth rate of global demand in recent 10 years will reach 10%, and the demand is expected to reach 80 million tons in 2030. Biodiesel consumption is mainly concentrated in Europe, America, Southeast Asia and other regions. Biodiesel consumption in Europe accounts for 47% of the total global consumption. We estimate that the global demand for biodiesel will be about 40 million tons in 2021. The EU requires that the blending proportion of biofuels in the transportation field reach 14% in 2030, while the current blending proportion is only 8.1% according to USDA. We estimate that the demand for biodiesel in the European market will be about 17 million tons in 2021 and 35.57 million tons in 2030. Due to the guarantee of emission reduction policies, the supply gap of biodiesel in Europe is expected to gradually enlarge, driving the increase of biodiesel import demand. China’s biodiesel mainly uses gutter oil as raw material, which has the advantages of environmental protection and zero carbon emission. Almost all of it is exported to Europe. In the future, waste oil will be the main force to replace palm oil to produce firewood. In 2020, China exported 932000 tons of firewood and 1123000 tons from January to November 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 36.0%. We predict that China’s biodiesel production will be about 1.5 million tons in 2021, and its export is expected to reach 1.2 million tons.
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