Under the influence of overseas conflicts, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low today (February 24), and the intraday index always operated green. In the afternoon, it plunged in a straight line and fell continuously. The overall performance of A-Shares was weak.
As of the close of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets all day, the Shanghai index fell 1.7% to 3429.96 points; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.20% to 13252.24 points; The gem index fell 2.11% to 2783.90.
From the disk point of view, the industry and concept sectors fell more or rose less, and the local profit-making effect plummeted. In terms of industries, gold, gas, oil, jewelry, shipbuilding and other industries led the increase; In terms of cultivation of gold, oil and gas, natural gas and other concepts.
In terms of funds, the central bank announced on February 24 that in order to maintain stable liquidity at the end of the month, the people’s Bank of China launched a reverse repurchase operation of 200 billion yuan by means of interest rate bidding on February 24, 2022, with a bid winning interest rate of 2.10%. As 10 billion yuan of reverse repo expired today, the people’s Bank of China realized a net investment of 190 billion yuan in the open market today.
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1. According to the news client of China Central Television, on the 24th local time, the Central Bank of Russia decided to intervene in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the Russian financial market.
2. According to the news client of China Central Television, on the 24th local time, the Central Bank of Ukraine announced that in view of the current situation, it is stipulated that the amount of cash withdrawn from the account per person per day cannot exceed 100000 hryvna (about 3500 US dollars).
3. According to the Shanghai Securities News, Wang Menghui, Minister of housing and urban rural development, said at the press conference of the State Council Information Office on February 24 that this year, we should promote major projects of aging, renewal and transformation of urban pipelines such as gas, and strive to start the transformation of about 20000 kilometers of gas pipelines with potential safety hazards. At the same time, we will also orderly promote the transformation of urban water supply, drainage and heating pipe networks, the construction of waterlogging prevention facilities and the construction of domestic waste treatment facilities. In addition, vigorously promote the “new urban construction”, that is, the construction of new urban infrastructure based on digitization, networking and intelligence. Accelerate the construction of national, provincial and municipal urban information model basic platform system, comprehensively promote intelligent municipal, intelligent community and intelligent construction, jointly develop smart city and intelligent Internet connected vehicles, and accelerate the implementation of “new urban construction” projects by building demonstration bases.
4. According to the supreme law, on February 24, the Supreme People’s Court issued the decision on Amending the interpretation of the Supreme People’s Court on Several Issues concerning the specific application of law in the trial of criminal cases of illegal fund-raising, which revised and improved the conviction and punishment standards for the crime of illegal absorption of public deposits and the crime of fund-raising fraud in the original judicial interpretation, and clarified the application of relevant laws, We will better implement the criminal policy of tempering justice with mercy, punish the crime of illegal fund-raising according to law, and safeguard the country’s financial security and stability.
institutional perspective
For the current market, AVIC securities mentioned that the tension between Russia and Ukraine has been increasing for many years, and the current military action has raised concerns about the potential impact on the financial market and the global economy. In the short term, the events in Russia and Ukraine will lead to increased stock market volatility, increase the uncertainty of economic expansion in Europe and the United States, put the Federal Reserve into a dilemma game of controlling inflation and maintaining economic growth, and increase market instability. However, historical experience shows that geopolitical events usually do not have a long-term impact on the market and investors.
With the rise of global risk aversion, the recent strong trend of RMB exchange rate reflects a certain “risk aversion” attribute. In addition to the reasons for the strong resilience of exports and the high level of capital inflow under current accounts, it also reflects the confidence of overseas funds in China. In this case, we believe that China’s capital market does not need to overreact, China’s fundamentals are still “self dominated”, and the stable growth policy environment and liquidity environment are still friendly. Therefore, the market decline should be treated rationally. The concentrated release of concerns in the short term is not expected to constitute a trend impact, and should not be killed blindly. After the emotional peak, the market is expected to usher in repair.
In addition, the agency further analyzed that with the rise of global risk aversion, funds may withdraw from Europe and the United States and be more distributed to China’s capital market. Recently, foreign investors have given signals to be optimistic about the long-term opportunities of A-Shares and began to accelerate the allocation of RMB assets. In the context of the global opening of the tightening cycle, the sharp fluctuation of risky assets and the rising risk aversion of investors, the global allocation of funds will find a safe haven. Based on China’s institutional advantages and economic resilience, A-Shares are expected to reflect a certain risk aversion attribute to overseas funds, and China is the only major economy with monetary expansion space. Therefore, after the disturbance of short-term risk events, it is still expected to obtain the inflow of global funds.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that the pattern of tight supply and demand fundamentals of crude oil continues, the geopolitical situation is changeable, and the short-term geopolitical risk premium of crude oil rises. Over the years, affected by the epidemic and low oil price cycle, the global oil and gas exploration expenditure has remained low. We are firmly optimistic about the long-term prosperity of the oil and gas industry. In the follow-up, we will focus on the implementation of OPEC + production increase, the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, the progress of the negotiation of the Iranian nuclear agreement, the spread of Omikron strain, the progress of vaccination and the development of covid-19 specific drugs.
East Asia Qianhai securities mentioned that the overseas epidemic and geopolitical conflict intensified, economic uncertainty increased, and gold prices were supported. In the context of the continuous spread of the global epidemic, the uncertainty of the future economic situation still exists. On the other hand, geopolitical conflicts such as the Ukrainian issue continue to appear, which exacerbates the volatility of the global market. Therefore, the global economic uncertainty increases and the gold price is ready to go.
Baocheng futures also pointed out that the situation in Ukraine strengthened the safe haven attribute of gold. In the short term, the situation in Ukraine catalyzes the acceleration of gold upward, so we need to be vigilant against the impact of the decline of VIX high on gold. The main logic of gold will return to the hedging value brought by the decline of US stocks under the expected background of interest rate increase. Therefore, gold can still be long before the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting in March.
