On February 23, covid-19 drug concept stocks were active repeatedly, Nanjing Hicin Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300584) , Hybio Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300199) "20cm" limit, and Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) , Guiyang Xintian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002873) , Xinxiang Tuoxin Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(301089) , Jinghua Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002349) followed.
Among them, Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) has increased nearly five times in the past four months, and Nanjing Hicin Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300584) has increased the "20cm" limit for three consecutive trading days recently. Behind the sharp rise, the market speculated that these enterprises may be Pfizer covid-19 drug related raw material suppliers.
In this regard, Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) has issued clarification announcements for many times. It is uncertain, has not signed a cooperation agreement with Pfizer, and has abandoned its relationship with Pfizer seven times, but it is still difficult to stop investors from speculation.
Pan Helin, executive director of Digital Economy Research Institute of Central South University of economics and law, said in an interview with Securities Daily: "At present, the correlation between many upstream API manufacturers of Pfizer oral medicine in China and Pfizer oral medicine is not clear, but investors expect these enterprises to benefit from it, because it is likely to eventually realize the localized production of Pfizer oral medicine, and investors pursue it more based on future expectations."
7 times to clear off the relationship with Pfizer
The share price of continued to soar nearly five times
According to the reporter of Securities Daily, Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) originally had a flat share price for a long time, but since November 1, 2021, the share price of the company has soared from 5.11 yuan / share to 29.29 yuan / share, the highest in the session on February 23, 2022, with a range increase of 473.19%, and the total market value has soared from 4.8 billion yuan to 26.3 billion yuan.
Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) why the sudden fire?
Zhou Xibing, research center for soft power of Chinese local enterprises, told the reporter of Securities Daily: " Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) The fire was mainly related to whether the company's carbonic anhydride products were related to Pfizer, creating an "imagination space" for the market. The governance mode of long-term coexistence with covid-19 virus means a huge commercial market. Investors are more optimistic about the commercial potential of relevant sectors. In the market with billions of people around the world, the effect of tuyere value naturally drives the strong rise of stock prices. At present, Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) share price increase is significantly higher than the change degree of fundamentals, which does not match the fundamentals of the company. "
At the same time, Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) has also issued clarification announcements for many times. It is uncertain, has not signed a cooperation agreement with Pfizer, and has abandoned its relationship with Pfizer seven times, but it is still difficult to stop investors from speculation. February 22, The 7th Clarification Announcement of Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) states: "The company did not supply the carlon anhydride products to Pfizer, nor did Pfizer provide the company with any quality standards for the procurement of covid-19 oral drug front-end raw materials, and the company's customers refused to provide the end use of the carlon anhydride and its derivatives. The company could not determine whether the carlon anhydride products produced met the needs of Pfizer products, nor did it carry out relevant technical verification, so it could not be determined Determine whether the Kalon anhydride products produced by the company are or can become Pfizer covid-19 oral drug intermediates. "
Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) further explained: "the annual output of 50000 kg parovid API project declared by the company, the annual output of 500 tons of pharmaceutical intermediate carbonic anhydride production project declared by the company's cooperative factory Xiangyang Yuchang Fine Chemical Co., Ltd., and the annual output of 300 tons of pharmaceutical intermediate 6,6-dimethyl-3-azabicyclo (3.1.0) Hexane production project, etc. At present, the company has not yet decided whether to build, and there is still great uncertainty about whether to build in the end. At the same time, it is impossible to determine whether the parovid API products to be produced by the company and the carbonic anhydride and 6,6-dimethyl-3-azabicyclo (3.1.0) hexane to be produced by Yuchang Jinghua are or can be used to synthesize Pfizer covid-19 oral medicine. "
In fact, from February 1 to February 17 this year, the sales revenue of Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) carbonic anhydride and its derivatives was only 6.5327 million yuan. In response, Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) said: "it is not expected to have a significant impact on the company's annual performance this year. The company has no long-term orders for carbonic anhydride and its derivatives."
From the data of the dragon and tiger list, since December 2021, individual institutions have occasionally appeared in the top five seats for trading, but no institutions have been seen in recent trading days. According to the three-day trading data released on February 21, Ge Weidong, sun Guodong and other well-known hot money are on the list.
questioned "covid-19 concept"
the company received four attention letters
Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) landed in the capital market in 2011, mainly engaged in innovative pesticides and pharmaceutical intermediates. In 2021, the company expects to realize a net profit of 180 million yuan to 200 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.79% to 24.21%.
Referring to the origin of Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) "covid-19 drug concept stock", we have to start with the first trading limit of the company on November 5, 2021. The share price closed at 7.14 yuan / share, up 20%.
On the previous trading day, November 4, 2021, Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) said on its official website that the commercial mass production of its pharmaceutical intermediate carbonic anhydride was smooth, with a monthly production scale of 20 tons.
Coincidentally, in December, paxlovid, an oral drug of Pfizer covid-19, was approved by the US FDA. Subsequently, Israel and South Korea successively approved the emergency use of Pfizer covid-19 specific drugs. The key part of one of the intermediates of paxlovid's API is composed of carbonic anhydride. Thus, this also gives investors "unlimited imagination" of the Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) future market.
"Covid-19 drug concept" and the continuous abnormal trading of stocks are followed by four letters of concern from the exchange.
According to the requirements of the first letter of concern, Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) supplemented the specific relationship between carbonic anhydride and its derivatives and Pfizer covid-19 oral drug products. After receiving the company's "rough" reply, the exchange successively issued letters of concern, and the query was further upgraded, asking the company to explain the reasons for publishing the commercial mass production information of carbonic anhydride on the official website, whether the above information meets the information disclosure standards, and whether the company has any violations of information phi.
At this time, Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) also began to be "meticulous and serious", The response said: "the above information is disclosed at Pfizer (authorized) Previously, the company did not have any channel to know the effectiveness and approval progress of covid-19 of Pfizer in advance; The company released the information of commercial mass production of carbonic anhydride based on the business perspective, aiming at the needs of downstream customers, promoting and selling the company's carbonic anhydride and derivatives, and improving the performance of the company's pharmaceutical intermediates.
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On February 14, Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) received the fourth letter of concern, asking the company to explain the relevant information of the approved new projects with an annual output of 50 tons of parovid API products. Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) explained in the reply letter on February 17 that obtaining the approval for project establishment and filing belongs to the primary stage of new (reconstruction) projects in the chemical industry. In the follow-up, the approval processes such as environmental impact assessment and safety assessment will be reported to relevant departments according to the requirements of the government, but the completion time cannot be accurately estimated. At present, the company has not decided whether to put into operation, and there is still great uncertainty about whether to put into operation in the end.
was punished by the CSRC for "rubbing hot spots"
experts remind short-term risks
In fact, Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) can be called a "veteran" of rubbing hot spots. The concept of "industrial marijuana" was rubbed in 2019; The covid-19 epidemic became a hot spot in early 2020; In the middle of 2020, the concept of "elixir of immortality" was rubbed again. Relying on the hot spot, the share price can always soar in the short term.
However, it is worth mentioning that Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) had previously stumbled on rubbing "covid-19 drugs", and had been filed for investigation by the CSRC on suspicion of information disclosure violations such as misleading statements.
On February 3, 2020, Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) said in response to investors' questions on the interactive easy platform that the subsidiary Piaoyi chemical is the main supplier of key intermediates of antiviral azanavir and darunavir. Darunavir mainly produces chiral drug intermediates. Darunavir is one of the company's main products and has a certain amount of inventory.
Therefore, from February 5, 2020, Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) share price was closed for four consecutive trading days. At that time, the abnormal share price also aroused the focus of the exchange.
On March 15, 2020, Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) was placed on file for investigation by the CSRC due to suspected misleading statements and other illegal acts. The chairman, general manager and board secretary of the company were condemned by the exchange. It became the first listed company to be investigated for information disclosure after the implementation of the new securities law at that time.
In the face of the continuous soaring trend of "covid-19 concept" stocks, what should we pay attention to when investing in such stocks and whether such stocks can continue to rise in the future?
In this regard, Wang Chikun, a financial commentator of the Research Institute, told the reporter of Securities Daily: "Due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, COVID-19 related governance stocks have become the darling of the capital market. There is a problem of overheating in the testing companies under capital puff and blessing, and its valuation is also overvalued. According to past experience, all sectors that are caught up in the capital have a callback process, which is the process of squeezing bubbles."
"In the future, with the accumulation of rich experience in covid-19 treatment measures, the epidemic situation will be effectively controlled, epidemic prevention policies will be adjusted, covid-19 related treatment demand market may suddenly disappear, and the hot situation of covid-19 related treatment related concept stocks will return to flat." Wang Chikun added.
In an interview with Securities Daily, Zhang Xiaorong reminded: "covid-19 drug concept stocks have been active repeatedly, which is mainly related to the changes of the epidemic situation and the good news of the market. Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) The stock price fluctuation probability is due to the hot money control operation. Since the company's fundamentals have not changed, the good news of the market belongs to false information. The rise is rapid in the short term, and there are great risks in the later stage. "
Bai Wenxi, chief economist of IPG, also told the reporter of Securities Daily: the normalization of covid-19 epidemic situation and the coexistence trend with daily life have given covid-19 oral drug concept drugs a good imagination space, thus promoting the repeated activity and strong trend of this sector. Investing in such stocks still needs to pay attention to the specific areas and matters of cooperation between the company and Pfizer, as well as the specific benefits that may be brought to the company and the sustainability in the future. Otherwise, it is likely to fall into the investment risk brought by the speculation of short linear concept.
