On February 22, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (601012. SH) raised the price of silicon wafers again during the year. Compared with the last price adjustment, the price of silicon wafers of different sizes has increased by 0.3 yuan / piece to 0.35 yuan / piece, an increase of 5.7% to 6.1%.
As one of the "two heroes" of silicon wafer, since November last year, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) has adjusted the price of silicon wafer four times, and the adjustment direction of quotation is "two down and two up".
The price game in each link of the photovoltaic industry chain often reflects the downstream installation demand. Generally speaking, the first quarter is the off-season of downstream demand. Does the two price adjustments in that quarter mean that the off-season is not light?
the incremental capacity of silicon wafer cannot meet the demand
At the end of 2021, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) lowered the price of silicon wafers twice on November 30 and December 16, respectively, with price declines of 7.2% to 9.8% and 5.45% ~ 5.66% respectively. On January 16 this year, the company announced another price increase of 2.4% ~ 5.1%.
Following the price changes of the photovoltaic industry chain, we can see that the prices of various upstream links of the main photovoltaic industry chain and some component auxiliary materials have rebounded recently, and the price rise of the upstream links has also provided conditions for Chinese battery manufacturers to raise prices.
The mismatch between the supply and demand side of the industrial chain and the insufficient supply increment are the main reasons for the price increase of silicon wafer. "The first quarter is the traditional off-season for photovoltaic installation, but driven by overseas demand and some delayed projects in the fourth quarter of last year, the off-season is not light." A new energy analyst told the first financial reporter.
He also pointed out that after the Spring Festival, the downstream battery link started to improve, the goods preparation and procurement were active, and the demand for silicon wafers increased unabated. Although the landing of new production capacity of China's monocrystalline silicon wafers is accelerating, the supply of China's monocrystalline silicon wafers is still slightly tight.
In the past two years, capital has flocked to the photovoltaic silicon chip link, and new and old players have thrown out plans to expand production. According to incomplete statistics, there are at least 12 silicon wafer manufacturers with expansion plans in 2022. It is expected that the total new silicon wafer production capacity will exceed 299gw in the future.
Why is the supply of silicon wafer still tight in the case of large-scale production expansion? "The newly added capacity is still limited at present. Due to the cyclical process of capacity climbing, although the silicon wafer enterprises are basically in full production after the festival, they are still unable to fully meet the market demand," said the aforementioned analyst, "The supply bottleneck of silicon material capacity is also one of the factors restricting the incremental landing of silicon wafer. At present, most of the new silicon material capacity will be put into operation in the second half of the year. The silicon wafer capacity is very close to the upper limit of silicon material supply, and the overall supply of silicon wafer is expected to be tight in the second quarter".
It is worth noting that Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) also recently disclosed the announcement on the change of the implementation subject and location of the convertible bond raised investment project in 2019. The company plans to change the balance of 1.214 billion yuan raised from the share allotment in 2018 originally used for the construction of Ningxia Leye annual output 3gw single crystal battery project to 1.02 billion yuan for the construction of Taizhou Leye annual output 4gw single crystal battery project, and the remaining 194 million yuan will permanently supplement the working capital.
It is understood that the annual output of 4gw single crystal battery project of Taizhou Leye will implement the transformation of electromechanical installation engineering in the existing leased plant of Taizhou Leye, introduce the high-efficiency battery technology independently developed by Longji, and form the annual output of 4gw high-efficiency single crystal battery. It is expected to start production in August this year.
equipment end enterprises or take the lead in benefiting from the expansion of manufacturers such as silicon wafers
On February 23, the A-share growth track "danced" again, and photovoltaic equipment, silicon wafers, semiconductor chips, lithium battery materials and other sub sectors warmed up in an all-round way. Silicon chip concept stocks rose collectively, Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) (603185. SH) rose by the limit, Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) (600481. SH) rose 5. 38%, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) rose more than 4%, Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) (688599. SH) rose more than 3%, Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) (002129. SZ) rose 2.44%.
Compared with silicon chip stocks, the rebound momentum of photovoltaic equipment stocks was more active. Large silicon chip cutting equipment enterprises Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) (688556. SH) and Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) (688516. SH), which are mainly engaged in series welding machines, closed up sharply by 8.31% and 7.92% respectively. Since this week, the photovoltaic equipment index (Yangtze River) has soared by 7.89%. Since February 14, the index has rebounded by 13%, which is the sub sector with the largest rebound since the continuous correction of the growth track.
The certainty of performance growth is one of the main factors supporting the strength of equipment stocks. Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) recently disclosed the performance express of 2021. During the reporting period, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.567 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 173 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 193%. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the operating revenue was 594 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 148%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 61 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 255%.
According to the announcement, the substantial increase of equipment orders, the substantial increase of diamond wire production capacity and shipment, and the significant increase of cutting equipment and cutting consumables sales scale in the innovative business field are the main reasons for the growth of performance. In addition, the capacity of silicon wafer cutting and processing service business is gradually released, becoming a new business growth point of Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) .
As one of the main processing equipment of downstream photovoltaic silicon wafer manufacturers, photovoltaic cutting equipment products realize important processes such as silicon rod cutting, square cutting, grinding, polishing, chamfering and slicing in silicon wafer manufacturing. According to the prospectus, Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) ,
\u3000\u3000 "The Growth Logic of equipment demand is mainly iterative. In the process of expanding the production of silicon wafers and components, the equipment enterprises that take the lead in benefiting are not sensitive to the price fluctuation of silicon materials and silicon wafers, which mainly depends on the strong demand for downstream installed capacity and the enthusiasm of downstream manufacturers to expand production. The large-size and thinning trend of monocrystalline silicon wafers will promote the renewal and iteration of relevant equipment and production lines, and many leading equipment manufacturers Also expanding production. " The aforementioned analyst told reporters.
On the other hand, in 2021, with strong demand for core products, ultra-high speed and large-size series welding machines, component equipment manufacturers Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) achieved high performance growth, and achieved an operating revenue of 2.048 billion yuan during the reporting period, a year-on-year increase of 79.04%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 355 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 128.69%.
In 2021, the sharp rise of silicon material price led to the lack of willingness of enterprises in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain to expand production, and the expansion of photovoltaic module production did not exceed expectations. The above analyst said: "the prosperity of downstream demand must be. The landing of silicon material production capacity is an important window. Enterprises in the middle and downstream links have high expectations for silicon material volume. The upstream cost pressure is no longer. Manufacturers of components and batteries will expand their production more actively. All iterations of technology should be summarized in the component links, and the corresponding equipment has iterative demand."
"The business of photovoltaic equipment has great flexibility, which belongs to the growth opportunities ushered in by the expansion of production in all links or technological iterations. With the continuous high-profile development, it is very important for leading enterprises to increase the market share. The essence of photovoltaic is to reduce costs and increase efficiency. Only equipment enterprises that can help downstream customers reduce costs through higher quality rate, safety and stability can stand out in the tide of production expansion." The analyst added.
