In February 22nd, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council made the recommendations on the key work of Promoting Rural Revitalization in 2022, that is, the No. 1 central document issued in 2022. The document proposes to ensure the supply of "vegetable basket" products, stabilize the long-term support policy for pig production, stabilize the basic production capacity and prevent the ups and downs of production.
Pork is one of the important products in the "vegetable basket", but the price of pork fluctuates greatly affected by the pig cycle. The financial Associated Press reporter learned from multiple interviews that at present, the state mainly regulates the supply of pigs by monitoring the production capacity of fertile sows and the stock of stable scale pig farms. The supply of pig market and the price of pork products remain relatively stable, which can prevent unreasonable and sharp fluctuations in prices.
It is worth mentioning that the No. 1 document focuses on the soybean and oil production capacity improvement project. Soybean meal, a by-product of soybean, as the main protein source of breeding feed, directly affects the breeding cost of pigs. A number of front-line people told the financial associated press that the favorable policies stimulate the promotion of soybean planting in China, which has a certain inhibitory effect on the rise of feed prices.
clarify and stabilize the basic production capacity of pigs
Compared with document No. 1 of 2021, the policy direction in 2022 was adjusted from "protecting the basic production capacity of pigs and improving the long-term mechanism for the stable and orderly development of pig industry" to "stabilizing the long-term support policy for pig production, stabilizing the basic production capacity and preventing the ups and downs of production".
Feng Yonghui, chief analyst of sozhu.com, told the Associated Press: "Pigs are different from other products. When the production capacity is adjusted to affect the actual supply, there will be a lag period of 10 months, which will lead to the rise and fall of pig prices and strong periodicity. The main way of the state's basic production capacity regulation plan is to set the lower limit of the production capacity warning line to make the production capacity and price fluctuate within this range as much as possible. For example, the measures such as starting pork collection and storage some time ago are national policy regulation Mode, stable production capacity, and naturally stable pig prices. "
Zeng Zihua, chief analyst of zhuyi.com, told the financial associated press that the focus of stabilizing the basic production capacity of pigs is to take the change rate of breeding sows as the core regulation index. "Stabilizing basic production capacity is basically the same as the implementation plan for pig production capacity regulation (Interim) issued by the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas."
According to the policy requirements, during the 14th Five Year Plan period, with reference to the national production data of 55 million tons of pork in normal years, the regulation target of breeding sows' stock is set, that is, the normal stock of breeding sows is stable at about 41 million, and the minimum stock is no less than 37 million, so as to keep the stock of breeding sows fluctuating within a reasonable range.
In addition to regulating the stock of fertile sows and stabilizing the basic production capacity, we also need to regulate the large-scale breeding capacity and stabilize the stock of large-scale pig farms. At present, large-scale farms (households) with an annual output of more than 500 pigs will be included in the national pig farm system for the record. All localities should maintain the overall stability of the number of large-scale farms (households) to ensure the overall stability of pig production capacity.
Chen Xiaoyu, pig analyst of Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) business unit, said in an interview with the financial associated press that the proportion of large enterprises is still increasing, and this self breeding breeding mode will become the main development trend of the industry in the future. For large-scale enterprises, it is suggested to optimize the sow structure, replace the inefficient sows and adjust the stock structure. No matter large-scale enterprises or small and medium-sized retail investors, they no longer pursue the population quantity, but reduce the cost and increase efficiency and improve the population quality. The most important thing is not to relax biosafety prevention and control, prevent the impact of epidemic diseases on the population and prevent the harm caused by excessive changes in pig prices. For the future pig market, we should comply with the development trend of the industry and encourage large-scale breeding. At the same time, we should not ignore the development of retail investors.
vigorously implement the soybean and oil production capacity improvement project
For the breeding industry, the price fluctuation of soybean and corn significantly affects the feed price. In the downward cycle of pig prices this year, the sharp rise of feed undoubtedly makes the breeding industry worse. According to Zhuo Chuang data, as of February 22, the average price of 43 protein soybean meal in China was 4462 yuan / ton, a cumulative increase of 25.48% over the beginning of the year. Affected by this, the feed industry has ushered in two rounds of price increases this year.
The financial Associated Press reporter noted that the document focuses on the soybean and oil production capacity improvement project, requires to increase the subsidy of cultivated land rotation and the reward of large oil producing counties, and promote the strip compound planting of corn and soybean in the Huang Huai Hai, northwest and southwest regions. A number of people in the front line of breeding told the financial associated press that soybean meal, a by-product of soybean crushing, is an important protein feed in the breeding industry. Promoting soybean planting can improve the supply of domestic soybeans and inhibit the rise of feed prices.
Feng Yonghui said: "China's soybean import dependence is high, and the import volume has reached a record high in the past two years. The formulation of soybean policies is more due to the food security strategy, which involves the basic materials of the national economy and the people's livelihood. You can rest assured that the key points of soybean prices are in your own hands. This year's rise in soybean prices is mainly due to the reduction of soybean production in South America and other places and the impact of the international situation. Of course, the self-sufficiency rate of domestic soybeans has increased and the degree of dependence has After the price drop, the price will naturally fall. "
The increase in soybean imports is also due to the increase in feed demand. The Ministry of agriculture and rural areas has repeatedly promoted the technology of low protein diet, added the short board of industrial synthetic amino acids, and reduced the consumption of protein raw materials such as soybean meal. Zeng Zihua said that many feed enterprises and large breeding enterprises are developing in this direction, or will become one of the development trends of the industry, because low protein diet technology can not only alleviate the pressure of soybean, but also prevent environmental pollution.
