On February 23, Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of housing and urban rural development exclusively responded to the rumor of “relaxation of early price limit” by the reporter of China Securities Journal, pointing out that neither luxury houses nor ordinary houses have been relaxed.
It is said that the so-called price limit standard refers to the limited price of residential projects with the same quality around. There is a lack of reference buildings around luxury houses, so there is another method to determine the price limit for luxury houses, but this standard has not been disclosed. Previously, it was said that the price limit of luxury houses was relaxed, which was misread by the outside world. “We have control over all real estate prices.”
Can spring be expected when the warm wind blows in Guangzhou property market?
After the market downturn of the Spring Festival, Guangzhou property market has ushered in good news.
On February 21, 2022, according to several media reports, the four major banks simultaneously lowered the housing loan interest rate in Guangzhou. Among them, the interest rate of the first house is reduced from the previous LPR + 100bp (5.6%) to LPR + 80bp (5.4%), and the interest rate of the second house is reduced from the previous LPR + 120bp (5.8%) to LPR + 100bp (5.6%).
In parallel with the reduction of mortgage interest rate, the recent transactions in Guangzhou property market have gradually recovered and began to pick up. According to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter’s investigation of a number of real estate enterprises, intermediaries and buyers, there are signs of “breaking the ice” in the first and second-hand houses in the Guangzhou real estate market, which is reflected in the brewing of some luxury housing projects into the market and the restoration of buyers’ confidence.
As the Guangzhou market began to stop falling and stabilize, whether there will be a little sunny spring in March and April this year is also the focus of public attention. Many industry insiders interviewed by 21st Century Business Herald reporters pointed out that the activity of Guangzhou property market will increase, but market confidence is still in the repair period. It remains to be seen whether xiaoyangchun will arrive as scheduled.
positive
While the purchase and sale restrictions and other policies remained stable, there was a certain degree of deregulation in housing loans in Guangzhou.
On February 21, 2022, the four major banks simultaneously lowered the housing loan interest rate in Guangzhou. Among them, the interest rate of the first house is reduced from the previous LPR + 100bp (5.6%) to LPR + 80bp (5.4%), and the interest rate of the second house is reduced from the previous LPR + 120bp (5.8%) to LPR + 100bp (5.6%).
After the four major banks cut the mortgage interest rate, a number of joint-stock banks in Guangzhou also made corresponding adjustments. According to the 21st Century Business Herald, the reporter learned from mortgage borrowers of many banks that at present, many banks in Guangzhou, including China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Hua Xia Bank Co.Limited(600015) , have also reduced mortgage interest rates.
According to the information provided by several intermediaries, at present, the mortgage interest rate of Guangzhou HSBC Bank for qualified buyers can be reduced to the lowest 4.9% of the first set, which is the most favorable mortgage interest rate at present. An intermediary in Tianhe District analyzed the 21st Century Business Herald reporter and said, “the qualification is good, HSBC is the lowest, and high-quality units can provide income certificates without running water.”
In fact, from the overall situation of the whole country, the mortgage interest rate has a downward trend on the whole. On February 21, 2022, the mainstream mortgage interest rate data of key cities released by the shell Research Institute showed that the mainstream mortgage interest rate of the first set of 103 key cities in February was 5.47% and that of the second set was 5.75%, both of which were 9 basis points lower than that of the previous month.
In addition to the reduction of housing loan interest rate, Guangzhou is also relatively abundant in housing loan amount, and the lending speed is significantly accelerated. The average lending period is about two to three months. A person from a joint-stock bank told the 21st Century Business Herald that at present, housing loan lending is basically “no problem in three months”.
A person who recently applied for a housing loan even revealed that it was only half a month from application to lending. “Now lending is very fast. If the degree of cooperation is high, it can be faster.”
With the adjustment of housing loan interest rate in Guangzhou, whether there will be room for further reduction in the future is also concerned by people in the industry. Ping An Securities Yang Kan predicted in a recent research report that the bank mortgage amount was sufficient at the beginning of this year, and the year-on-year decline of residents’ medium and long-term loans in January showed that the demand side was still depressed. Under the background of sufficient supply and insufficient demand, it is expected that the mortgage interest rate is expected to accelerate the decline in the future.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) Chen Cong and Zhang Guoguo also believe that where the amount of mortgage loans is expected to be sufficient in the future and there is great pressure on house prices to decline, the down payment ratio of home ownership demand mortgage loans is expected to decline, and the pricing level of home ownership demand mortgage loans is expected to decline.
bottom recovery
Under the warm wind, the property market in Guangzhou is also gradually warming up.
Judging from the overall data, the property market in Guangzhou has stopped falling. On February 21, 2022, the National Bureau of statistics released the statistical data on the changes in the sales price of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in January 2022. The data showed that the sales price of new commercial housing in first tier cities increased by 0.6% month on month, from a decrease of 0.1% in the previous month, of which Guangzhou increased by 0.5%.
While house prices rose slightly, market transactions were also significantly more active. An intermediary in Huangpu District told the 21st Century Business Herald that he began to see more in recent months, and the owner’s mentality is relatively strong. “Compared with years ago, there is not so much room for price negotiation, because the transaction price has increased.”
In contrast, the confidence of property buyers is generally bullish. A person who bought a house before the reduction of the mortgage interest rate pointed out to the reporter of the 21st Century Business Herald, “at the beginning, I felt that there was a snack jam when I saw the reduction of the mortgage interest rate by 20 basis points, and I felt that my application was expensive. Later, I actually felt that it was ok, more than 100 yuan a month, which seemed to be completely negligible compared with the rise of house prices.”
With the improvement of confidence, the regional heat of previous hot spots such as Tianhe and Huangpu has also been boosted to a certain extent, and a number of luxury residential buildings are gradually pushed into the market process. For example, Hejing Zhenyi house, located on yuejing road in Tianhe, received the pre-sale certificate on January 29, 2022, which is also regarded as one of the signals of market ice breaking.
Many positive information appeared, and the property market in Guangzhou tended to repair.
Xiao Wenxiao, chief regional analyst of Kerui Guangfo, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that from the data, the trading volume of the first-hand real estate market in Guangzhou has been at a low repair level since the beginning of the year, which has basically halved compared with the same period last year, which also reflects that the current Guangzhou market has recovered from the coldest “copper, Kowloon iron and steel ten” last year, But it has not returned to the normal level.
Xiao Wenxiao continued that with the positive news such as the reduction of mortgage interest rate, the activity of property market demand will gradually increase near the peak supply season in March. It should be pointed out that it will take time to restore the confidence of all parties in the market, and “xiaoyangchun” is unlikely to be achieved overnight.
Huang Tao, general manager of Guangzhou Zhongyuan Real Estate Project Department, pointed out that it is expected that there will be a relative recovery and active transactions in Guangzhou in March 2022, because there are just needed and improved sellers in Guangzhou as a whole. Huang Tao believes that there will be a certain increase in transactions in Tianhe, Haizhu, Huangpu and Panyu, which were the hot areas of transactions in Guangzhou in the past, but it is unlikely that there will be a comprehensive rebound in the whole market, because at present, market stability is still the main theme, and house prices in most regions are still in a stable or even downward range. (source: 21st Century Business Herald)
