Affected by the year-on-year decline in Qingdao Rubber inventory but month on month increase, the price of Shanghai Rubber fluctuated narrowly around 14000 yuan / ton and other factors, the outer market of Tianjiao rose on the 23rd.
On the same day, the contract of SICOM tsr20 in May closed at 180.8 cents / kg, up 0.4 cents / kg or 0.22% compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day; SICOM RSS3 contract closed at 223 cents / kg in March, up 3.3 cents / kg or 1.5% compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day; There is no quotation update for rubber due to the closure of the market.
In terms of raw material price, on February 23, Wuchan Zhongda Group Co.Ltd(600704) data provided by Outai Singapore Co., Ltd. showed that the price of Thai cup glue was 51 baht / kg, equivalent to US $1835 / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; The price of glue was 68.5 baht / kg, unchanged from the previous trading day; The price of white film was 66 baht / kg, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of Indonesian cup glue was idr23600 / kg, equivalent to US $1810 / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The quotation of Indonesian factory is US $1840 / ton in April.
According to the statistics of jinlianchuang, as of mid and late February 2022, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao general trade warehouse decreased by 53% year-on-year, and the natural rubber inventory in the bonded area decreased by 36% year-on-year. Due to the easing of shipping problems, the arrival of rubber ships at the port on the day after the Spring Festival is relatively concentrated, and the demand recovery process of downstream factories is slow, the imported rubber inventory in Qingdao continues to increase, and the growth rate is higher than that in January. In the medium term, it is expected that the transfer of natural rubber inventory from foreign ports to the Chinese market will continue for some time, and the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao is expected to continue to increase.
Hu Bo, general manager of Outai Singapore, believes that the year-on-year decline in inventory in Qingdao has been fully priced, but at present, the market believes that there is still uncertainty about the month on month increase in inventory. He said that with the slight easing of the shipping problem, the problem of hidden inventory in the origin will become more and more prominent. Judging from the current shipping situation, there is no shortage problem at the supply side. Hu Bo believes that the fundamentals of rubber are still not reversed, and the overall supply is still in a state of oversupply or tight balance. He said that this year’s rubber market is likely to accumulate reserves at the end of the period. Therefore, it is suggested that market participants still adopt the operation mode of high and short in range shocks.
