Recently, the international oil and gas market prices have continued to rise, and the international oil price has now reached a recent high of 100 yuan per barrel. At the same time, the market price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in China has almost doubled in the past month.
What are the reasons for the sharp rise in international crude oil prices? What is the prediction of the future market trend? How to strengthen China’s energy security? In this regard, the reporter of securities times · e company interviewed LV Jianzhong, the full-time deputy director of the Petrochina Company Limited(601857) national high-end think tank Research Center, the Secretary General of the academic committee and the expert of China’s famous energy think tank.
LV Jianzhong told reporters that the relationship between supply and demand is the fundamental and main factor determining the trend of international oil prices. Over the years, in most cases, the supply-demand relationship in the global crude oil market is in a fragile balance. In the future, the international crude oil market is expected to continue the price trend of high and wide fluctuation. On the other hand, relevant departments should maintain strategic concentration and bottom line thinking, always put ensuring energy safety in the first place, continue to strengthen China’s oil and gas exploration and development, and adhere to putting the rice bowl of energy in their own hands. In the process of energy transformation, relevant departments should guide the orderly entry of capital.
\u3000\u3000 “Two years ago, the world was still concerned about the once negative oil price. Now the international crude oil market price has risen sharply to more than $90 per barrel, and the on-site price of Brent crude oil broke through $100 per barrel for the first time in eight years. It can be said that before covid-19 epidemic, demand fell sharply, but today, it is insufficient supply and uncertain geopolitical risk. It shows that oil The price has not yet got rid of cyclical fluctuations. ” LV Jianzhong told reporters.
Referring to the reasons for the recent sharp rise in international crude oil prices, LV Jianzhong believes that the relationship between supply and demand is the fundamental and main factor determining the trend of international oil prices. With the gradual improvement of the global epidemic prevention and control situation, the world economy has opened the recovery mode, and the demand for rigid energy such as oil and natural gas has increased rapidly. However, in recent years, global crude oil production has been affected by factors such as OPEC + production policy. Some resource exporting countries have reduced investment and production capacity on a large scale, and even artificially created market scarcity, resulting in a phased shortage of crude oil supply, and energy production can not keep up with energy consumption, thus pushing up market prices. Over the years, in most cases, the relationship between supply and demand in the global crude oil market has been in a fragile balance.
\u3000\u3000 “Secondly, in the process of global green energy transformation, investment in oil and gas has declined seriously. This structural problem can also be regarded as a pain experienced in the process of global development of new energy. It should be noted that crude oil still plays a role as a ballast in the global energy structure. In addition, after the epidemic, the loose policies in the financial field of European and American countries have led to the massive release of money in many countries, Inflation is inevitable, which leads to the rise of commodity crude oil prices. Finally, uncertain geopolitical risks will also affect the crude oil market price expectations and even lead to market panic. ” Lu Jianzhong further analyzed and said.
Looking to the future, LV Jianzhong believes that the international crude oil market is expected to continue the price trend of high and wide fluctuation. “The future trend of the international crude oil market depends on the global energy investment and supply. The demand side of the crude oil market is basically predictable, while there are many uncertain factors on the supply side, including the recovery trend of oil supply side investment and whether the output can grow steadily. Generally speaking, the rise of oil and gas prices will lead to increased investment by some oil and gas producing countries, but if partial The intensification of geopolitical risks in the region will further increase the volatility of oil prices. “
In terms of energy supply, LV Jianzhong told reporters that at present, the external dependence of Petrochina Company Limited(601857) is more than 70%. As a major oil consumer and importer, it is inevitable to be affected by the international crude oil market price. At the same time, China is also a major energy producer. China has a strong ability to adjust the balance between supply and demand. In particular, central energy enterprises such as PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC have played an important role in increasing reserves and production, coordinating production, transportation, marketing and storage, and stabilizing energy prices.
On how to strengthen China’s energy security, LV Jianzhong suggested that, first of all, we must maintain strategic concentration and bottom line thinking, always put ensuring energy security in the first place, continue to strengthen China’s oil and gas exploration and development, and adhere to putting the rice bowl of energy in our own hands. Secondly, on the basis of safe and reliable substitution of new energy, we should further promote the green and low-carbon transformation of energy. However, we should establish first and then break down. We can no longer be eager for quick results in a sports and one size fits all manner. At the same time, we should improve the management level of energy conservation and consumption reduction. Third, strengthen strategic reserves and international cooperation, and enhance the overall planning ability of China’s international “two resources and two markets”. Fourth, strengthen technological innovation in the field of energy, and earnestly rely on technological breakthroughs to realize the transformation of energy security. Fifth, deepen the reform of system and mechanism in the field of energy, stimulate market vitality and build an effective competitive energy market.
It is worth noting that in LV Jianzhong’s view, in recent years, China’s market-oriented reform in the field of energy has achieved remarkable results, especially in the field of new energy, there has been a large influx of social capital. However, in the process of energy transformation, relevant departments should guide the orderly entry of capital. “Because capital is inherently profit driven, while energy is a strategic resource with obvious public welfare, and a large number of disorderly intervention of capital is easy to mislead the market and policies. Therefore, the research and formulation of energy policies should not be influenced by the capital market. We should strengthen investigation and research, adhere to seeking truth from facts and proceed from reality.”. LV Jianzhong reminded.
