Core view:
Recently, the national development and Reform Commission issued the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan (hereinafter referred to as the implementation plan) as a supplement and deepening to the guiding opinions on accelerating the development of new energy storage issued in July 2021. The implementation plan mainly focuses on tackling key technical problems, pilot demonstration, supporting new power systems Improve the system and mechanism and operation guarantee, and clarify the development plan of energy storage.
In terms of total amount, the new plan does not mention the development goal of 30GW in 25 years. Compared with the dependence of scenery on subsidies, the development of energy storage mainly benefits from the flexible market mechanism. Avoiding the one size fits all model is more conducive to the healthy development of the industry. From the perspective of economy, strengthen the cost reduction by 30% by 2025, improve the superposition price mechanism and widen the price difference between peak and valley, and drive the endogenous demand for energy storage from the demand side economy.
Strengthen technical research, support diversified development of energy storage, and promote multi scenario and different demand side applications. The implementation plan supports the development of diversified energy storage technologies, defines the research directions of safety technologies such as thermal runaway barrier, high efficiency and safety, battery cycle detection, and puts forward higher requirements for safety; The technical schemes of energy storage regulation such as demand side response and virtual power plant are put forward for the first time. For the technical solutions of different technical routes and time dimensions, it is proposed for the first time to formulate differentiated policies according to local conditions to support the development of diversified energy storage, from the demand for high-frequency energy storage at the second and minute levels to the demonstration of high-capacity, medium and long-term energy storage for new energy consumption and system peak shaving, and then to the energy storage technology at the weekly and quarterly frequency time scales.
Emphasize the supporting role of energy storage in the new power system, improve the system and mechanism, and help market-oriented operation.
The implementation plan follows the scenes of power supply side, power grid side and user side. In addition to mentioning the large base, the power generation side also includes reducing the capacity construction of transmission channel and promoting the consumption of sea breeze; The grid side improves the response and regulation capacity of the power system by participating in auxiliary services; Multi scenario applications on the user side, in addition to the promotion of business models such as shared energy storage, cloud energy storage and energy storage aggregators, belong to the improvement of the guidance in July 2021. In terms of mechanism, the new version of “two detailed rules” in December 2021 has clarified the dominant position of energy storage in the market. This mechanism innovation mainly lies in clarifying the cost relief mechanism of new energy storage, such as increasing the support of “new energy + energy storage” projects on the power generation side; The capacity electricity price mechanism of independent energy storage power station on the grid side, including the cost and income of alternative energy storage facilities in the transmission and distribution electricity price recovery, etc; The user side expands revenue channels on the basis of expanding the price difference between peak and valley, and gives play to the role of energy storage demand side response and reducing the basic investment of distribution network. We believe that a sound market and flexible mechanism are more beneficial to the development of the energy storage industry than subsidies. The implementation plan conveys a clear development plan, that is, the system determines the economy determines the development prospect. At the moment of accelerating the reform of power marketization, energy storage will also usher in the greatest development opportunity.
Investment advice. It is suggested to pay attention to operational enterprises Shaanxi Baoguang Vacuum Electronic Apparatus Co.Ltd(600379) , Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) , State Grid Information&Communication Co.Ltd(600131) ; Battery enterprises Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , lithium iron phosphate material enterprises Mianyang Fulin Precision Co.Ltd(300432) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) ; Focus on energy storage Fujian Yongfu Power Engineering Co.Ltd(300712) , Sineng Electric Co.Ltd(300827) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) for the source network side, Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) , Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) , Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) for industrial and commercial energy storage, and Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002518) for household energy storage.
Risk warning. Energy storage demand is lower than expected; The introduction of energy storage industry standards is less than expected.
