Introduction to this report:
The recent epidemic situation may catalyze the gradual rational liberalization of optimistic expectations in the world. It is suggested to pay attention to the reverse timing between aviation and AVIC.
The growth of volume and price of express in January is in line with expectations. It is expected that the performance will increase rapidly in the first half of 2022 and maintain the increase of holdings.
Summary:
Aviation: the epidemic situation in Hong Kong may catalyze the international liberalization and return to rationality. It is suggested to pay attention to the reverse timing.
In the 36 days before the Spring Festival transportation, the air passenger flow increased by 19% year-on-year to 54% in 2019. Among them, the passenger flow before and after the Lantern Festival rose to 60% in 2019, from positive to negative year-on-year, which should be due to the impact of major activities and the epidemic in China. When the epidemic situation is under control, the demand is expected to recover rapidly, and China is still expected to return to profitability under the big cycle.
Recently, the national development and Reform Commission issued several policies on promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry, which will support the recovery of the aviation industry from the aspects of increasing capital liquidity and reducing the ex factory price of aviation oil.
The recent aviation adjustment may be due to the epidemic situation in Hong Kong, which catalyzes the return of international liberalization expectations to rationality. Considering that the medium-term recovery of the industry is determined and the long-term prospect is optimistic, it is suggested to pay attention to the reverse timing. Maintain the "overweight" ratings of Air China Limited(601111) H / A, AVIC h, China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) H / A, China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) h, Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) .
Express delivery: the volume of comparable express delivery still maintained a high growth rate, and the single ticket revenue generally increased. In January 2022, the industry's express delivery volume increased by 3% year-on-year, mainly due to the year-on-year dislocation of the Spring Festival. It is estimated that the delivery volume of comparable caliber from January to early February increased by 25% year-on-year, still maintaining a high growth rate. Yuantong heyunda decreased month on month in January, while Shunfeng increased, which is in line with the seasonal law during the previous Spring Festival. Express companies raised prices to cope with the cost pressure during the Spring Festival. The single ticket income generally increased in January and is expected to remain stable in February. According to the past law, it will fall seasonally in March. Considering the firm goal of profit restoration of head enterprises, it is expected that the price strategy will be rational and restrained. In 2022, the competition stage of the industry slows down and the profit recovery is determined. In the long run, the industry will return to benign competition and natural concentration. In the first half of 2022, the profit elasticity is expected to exceed expectations and maintain the overweight ratings of Zhongtong express, Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) .
Shipping: the congestion in the west American port of centralized transportation continues, and the oil transportation pays attention to the bottom opportunity. Centralized transportation: Recently, the loading rate of routes from Shanghai to Europe and the United States has remained close to full load. Last week, the US West freight rate was ccfi-4%, SCFI + 1%, FBX + 3%. The congestion in the west American port continues. The number of ships waiting to berth in Los Angeles port decreased slightly last week. It is expected that it will take time for the supply bottleneck to ease. Considering the gradual weakening of the impact of overseas epidemic, it is suggested to be vigilant against the risk of demand inflection point.
Considering the risk return ratio, maintain the "neutral" rating of the centralized transportation industry. Oil transportation: VLCC Middle East China TCE fell below - 12000 US dollars / day and remained in the doldrums. In the past six months, the VLCC ship dismantling volume has increased, and the future environmental protection policy is expected to accelerate the clearing of transport capacity. Considering that the destocking of crude oil and the release of floating warehouse transportation capacity are basically completed, we are optimistic about the deterministic recovery of the oil transportation market in the next two years, and we suggest paying attention to the timing of bottom layout. The beneficiary objects are Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co.Ltd(600026) , China Merchants Energy Shipping Co.Ltd(601872) .
Bulk supply chain: with steady growth, the performance can be expected to grow steadily. From January to February 2022, the average price of rebar + 9%, coking coal + 78% and iron ore index - 17% year-on-year. Considering that the bulk commodity prices in 2021 are low before and high after, the market is worried that the bulk commodity prices will fall year-on-year, and the performance of bulk supply chain enterprises is under pressure. We believe that under the background of "steady growth", infrastructure construction is expected to stimulate the demand for steel, and the market share will focus on the top enterprises of the bulk supply chain, with performance exceeding expectations and steady growth. Xiamen C&D Inc(600153) : Supply Chain + real estate, with continuous growth in performance and excellent risk control in the past two decades. It is expected that the performance in 2021 will exceed the market expectation. Recently, it is announced that equity incentive is proposed. It is expected that the performance of the 14th five year plan is expected to exceed 15% and grow steadily. At present, PE is only 5 times, the dividend policy is stable, the dividend yield is up to 5%, and the shareholding increase is maintained.
Risk warning. Epidemic situation, additional dilution, economic downturn, oil price, exchange rate, safety accidents, etc.
