Recently, the State Council issued the national plan for the development of the cause of the elderly and the elderly care service system during the 14th Five Year Plan period (hereinafter referred to as the plan). The plan emphasizes that by 2025, the total number of elderly care service beds will reach more than 9 million, the proportion of class II and above general hospitals with geriatrics will reach more than 60%, the enrollment scale of elderly care related majors in undergraduate colleges and vocational colleges will increase significantly, and the standard rate of supporting elderly care service facilities in new urban areas and new residential areas will reach 100%.
The plan proposes to support the construction of professional elderly care institutions, and the investment in the central budget will focus on supporting the construction of new nursing elderly care service facilities and the transformation and improvement of nursing service capacity. Guide local governments to implement differentiated subsidies for ordinary beds and nursing beds. By 2025, the proportion of nursing beds in national pension institutions will increase to 55%.
the scale of pension industry is growing rapidly
In the elderly care service system, the plan focuses on vigorously developing the silver economy, including developing and expanding the elderly products industry, promoting the scientific and intelligent upgrading of elderly products, and orderly developing inclusive financial services for the elderly. It will be in Beijing Tianjin Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Bay area, Chengdu and Chongqing, It is planned to lay out about 10 high-level Yinfa economic industrial parks.
In recent years, the pension industry has continued to receive policy support. During the 13th Five Year Plan period, it has developed rapidly. The number of various pension service institutions and facilities in China has increased from 116000 to 329000, and the number of beds has increased from 6.727 million to 8.21 million. By 2020, there will be 5857 medical and nursing institutions with complete two certificates, and the number of beds will reach 1.58 million.
With the deepening of China’s aging, the market scale of silver economy is expected to grow rapidly. China’s population structure is undergoing significant changes. In 2020, China’s population over the age of 65 accounted for 13.5%. Compared with the results of the sixth census in 2010, the population over the age of 65 accounted for 8.87%, an increase of 4.63%. China’s aging degree is further deepened, and the scale of silver haired economic users continues to expand.
According to the report on the development of China’s aging industry, the consumption scale of China’s elderly population will increase from 4 trillion yuan to about 106 trillion yuan from 2014 to 2050.
Silver economy refers to the collection of industries that provide special goods, facilities and services for people with health needs and the elderly. In addition to basic elderly products, health physiotherapy and rehabilitation assistance, it also includes the standardized development of the third pillar of old-age insurance, innovative development of old-age education, cultural services for the elderly, old-age tourism, old-age real estate and other aspects.
In the subdivided fields, many securities companies focus on the financial needs of the elderly care field. China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that compared with other investment needs, the risk preference of pension products is low, and bank financial management and insurance asset management will have certain advantages in capacity-building.
Open source Securities believes that China’s third pillar pension is in an accelerated ice breaking period, and the pension financial market has great potential. With the continuous improvement of China’s third pillar pension system, the third pillar pension system policy with account system as the main body and tax incentives as incentives is expected to be accelerated.
pension concept stock
general rise since this month
According to the statistics of securities times · databao, there are 54 concept stocks in the A-share market, which have generally increased since this month, with an average increase of 2.46%, and three stocks increased by more than 10%, among which st national medicine, Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) led the increase; Beijing E-Hualu Information Technology Co.Ltd(300212) , China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) , Nan Jing Xin Jie Kou Department Store Co.Ltd(600682) and others increased by more than 8%.
According to the median value of net profit advance or performance express data, the net profit of 16 pension industry concept stocks will increase in 2021. It is expected that the net profit of Chengdu Kanghong Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002773) , Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) is expected to double and rise since this month.
Chengdu Kanghong Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002773) performance forecast shows that in 2021, the company expected to achieve net profit of 400 million yuan -5.2 billion yuan, an increase of 248%-293% compared with the same period last year. The company has completed the patent or exclusive product layout with Kang Hong characteristics in the treatment of common diseases such as hypertension, diabetes and other chronic diseases, such as Department of respiration and digestive department.
The pension industry includes many undervalued industries, such as pension finance and real estate. In addition, some pharmaceutical stocks with good performance are also in the undervalued range. According to the statistics of databao, among the concept stocks of the pension industry, the latest rolling P / E ratio of 15 stocks is less than 15 times, Intco Medical Technology Co.Ltd(300677) , Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) , China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) and other valuations are the lowest, and the P / E ratios are single digits.
