In the process of A-share market shock adjustment, the issuance of public and private funds has entered the “freezing point period” again. According to the latest data of China Securities Investment Fund Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as “China Foundation Association”), the new filing scale of private securities investment funds in January this year was 40.121 billion yuan, down nearly 60% from December last year, and the number of filings also decreased significantly. At the same time, the share of public funds issued in January this year was only 118.82 billion yuan, a sharp decrease compared with December last year.
Is the sharp drop in public and private offerings a risk signal or a bottom signal? Many insiders said that under the policy tone of “stable growth”, there will be no systemic risk in the probability of a shares; From the perspective of A-share history, the cold issuance of funds has increased the short-term correction pressure of A-shares at the transaction level, but when the risk appetite drops to the low point, the market is often at the bottom.
the issuance of public and private funds is cold
On February 21, the China Foundation Association released the monthly report on private fund manager registration and product filing in January. According to the data, the number of private equity funds newly filed in January was 3635, down 19.79% from December last year; The new filing scale was 95.888 billion yuan, down 43.58% month on month. Specifically, the filing of securities private placement is quite bleak. According to the data, the number of private securities investment funds recorded in January was 2681, down 18% month on month; The new filing scale was 40.121 billion yuan, down 59.47% month on month.
According to sources, since the beginning of this year, A-share volatility has been adjusted, market risk appetite has declined sharply, and the private placement market has cooled significantly. After the Spring Festival holiday, the fund-raising situation of a well-known 10 billion private placement in Beijing is not very optimistic. The total fund-raising of the two channels is less than 1 billion yuan.
It is worth noting that the issuance downturn also occurs in the public fund industry. According to the statistics of Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) Research Report, the issuance scale of various types of public funds in January this year totaled 118.82 billion yuan, only 39.28% of that in December last year, a new low in nearly a year. Among them, the issued shares of equity funds, hybrid funds and bond funds were 11.666 billion yuan, 82.388 billion yuan and 13.76 billion yuan respectively, with 37, 78 and 17 funds respectively. The average share raised by a single fund is only 803 million yuan, of which the average share raised by equity funds is only 315 million yuan.
Rong Hao, a wealth management partner of private placement paipai.com, analyzed that the sharp drop in the issuance of public and private funds in January was due to market fluctuations and the lack of profit-making effect, which affected the enthusiasm of investors to enter the market to a certain extent; On the other hand, the rapid development of quantitative private placement last year increased the month on month base in January. After the rapid expansion of scale, quantitative private placement is difficult to become the “absolute main force” of the private placement market again.
What does it mean that the issuance of fund is cold?
Does the sharp drop in the public and private offering market mean risk or opportunity?
Fun time assets said that recently, the “proportion of financing purchase” of A-Shares fell to around 6%. The financing purchase index reflects the market risk preference. At present, the index is lower than the values of important bottom areas such as the end of 2018, the middle of 2019 and after the Spring Festival holiday in 2020, indicating that the current market risk preference is low. From the perspective of A-share history, when the risk appetite drops to the “freezing point”, the market is often in the bottom area, and the current time point should be moderately optimistic.
According to the statistics of Yinhua Fund, the stage of significant decline in fund issuance scale is called the “freezing point period” of fund issuance, and there have been 10 “freezing point periods” of public funds in the past 10 years. If the common stock fund index is used as the measurement index, the fund is purchased and held in the “freezing point period” every time, the probability of positive return is as high as 100%, and the annualized rate of return is more than 12%.
According to Xingshi investment analysis, from the issuance data since 2019, there is a certain correlation between fund issuance and market trend, but fund issuance is not the decisive factor of market trend. From the transaction level, the decline in the number and scale of fund issuance will increase the pressure of short-term market correction. In the medium and long term, under the policy tone of “stable growth”, funds are expected to form a consistent expectation for economic recovery, and A-Shares will gradually stabilize.
public and private “falling more optimistic”
Recently, under the influence of external market disturbance, cold fund issuance and other factors, A-Shares are still in a state of shock adjustment. However, many public and private institutions seem to be “more optimistic as they fall”.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, believes that many indicators representing market sentiment, such as difficulties in issuing new funds and shrinking market trading volume, show that the A-share market is at the bottom. For investors, it is a better investment strategy to wait patiently by holding high-quality leading stocks or high-quality leading funds.
Danshui spring investment said that although the short-term market volatility has increased, the market investment value should be viewed more positively. First, the “steady growth” policy continued to exert its force, and the effect gradually appeared; Second, an important index to judge the market investment value is investor expectation. At present, investor sentiment and expectation are low, which actually corresponds to high investment value; Third, from the perspective of A-share history, the probability of systemic risk in the current market is very low.
“It is difficult for A-Shares to have systemic risks this year. The high probability shows that the opportunities are more balanced. There is no need to be overly pessimistic at the current time. After the annual report and the first quarterly report of listed companies are released, the investment main line may be clearer.” A medium-sized private equity founder in Shanghai said bluntly.
Fun time assets also said that after the correction, the A-share market has fully responded to the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates, the valuation attractiveness of major indexes has been significantly improved, and the “steady growth” policy has been gradually put into force. At present, it can be moderately optimistic.
