After the Spring Festival, the real estate market continued to rebound, driven by the policy. Many institutions predict that with the subsequent introduction of relevant favorable policies, the valuation and repair market of the real estate sector will continue.
The sector continued to rebound
Stimulated by the favorable news such as the reduction of mortgage interest rate and down payment ratio in some regions, the real estate sector continued to rise recently, and several stocks such as Tahoe Group Co.Ltd(000732) , Guangzhou Pearl River Industrial Development Co.Ltd(600684) , Cosmos Group Co.Ltd(002133) rose by the limit.
Data show that as of February 22, the Shenwan real estate index has risen by 2.36% this year, and the overall performance of the sector is better than the market. At present, the P / E ratio of the real estate sector is 8.6 times and the P / B ratio is 0.99 times.
Industry insiders said that real estate stocks are more sensitive to policy expectations. Last year, real estate stocks were significantly dragged down by the tightening of regulatory policies and the debt problem of real estate enterprises. However, since the fourth quarter of last year, the real estate policy is expected to gradually improve, driving the gradual repair of the valuation of the real estate sector.
According to the research report, the current round of real estate stock market has risen by about 15% since its launch in November 2021. From the perspective of range increase, the current round of real estate stock market should still be in the middle.
frequent positive signals
After the Spring Festival, many favorable policies for the property market were intensively introduced, releasing a more positive signal. At the same time, the real estate market has also shown signs of bottoming up recently. According to the statistics of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Institute, since 2022, the national real estate regulation policies have been issued more than 80 times. So far, more than 40 cities across the country have issued various support policies.
On February 21, several mainstream banks in Guangzhou lowered the mortgage interest rate. The loan interest rate of the first house was reduced from 5.6% to 5.4%, and the loan interest rate of the second house was reduced from 5.8% to 5.6%. According to the data of the shell Research Institute, in February, the interest rate of the first set of housing loans in 103 major monitoring cities was 5.47%, and the interest rate of the second set of housing loans was 5.75%, both down 9 basis points from the previous month; The average lending cycle is 38 days, which is 12 days shorter than that of the previous month.
In addition, recently, Nanning and other cities have successively reduced the down payment ratio of individual housing loans. Up to now, seven cities including Foshan, Heze and Nanning have announced to reduce the proportion of down payment.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, said that recently, signals of policy deregulation began to appear in many cities, which will have a substantial impact on market transactions and play a positive role in promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
The market of is expected to continue
Xiangcai securities and other institutions predict that under the background of steady growth this year, more favorable policies will be introduced in succession, and the real estate sector will continue the valuation and repair market.
From the perspective of fundamentals, the recent real estate transactions have also shown a gradual recovery trend, and market sentiment is expected to continue to recover. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in January, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities in China, the number of new housing prices rose month on month to 28, and the number of second-hand housing prices rose slightly to 10. The sales prices of new commercial houses and second-hand houses decreased month on month in 39 and 55 cities respectively, 11 and 8 less than that of the previous month.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the mortgage loan amount and interest rate are key variables, and the demand side support policy at the local level is expected to continue to be introduced. It is expected that the prosperity of the real estate industry will bottom out and pick up after March, while the structural evolution trend will continue.
Wanlian securities predicts that the fundamentals of the current real estate industry continue to bottom, and there are still many favorable policies to look forward to in the follow-up. It continues to be optimistic about the market performance of the real estate sector.
