Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Minsheng Securities: Electronics is still the bull sector! Intelligent electric vehicles, VR / AR, cloud computing, IOT wearable, etc. usher in new opportunities
For a long time, electronics has been an important institutional configuration sector. In the early stage, the electronics sector was dominated by consumer electronics, and apple chain company bloomed. Then, under the background of Huawei incident and shortage tide, semiconductor companies started domestic substitution and relay consumer electronics to become the main investment line. Although the electronic fluctuation is large, it is still a long bull sector.
Looking forward to the future industrial trend and investment main line, we believe that: 1) there is still considerable room for domestic substitution of semiconductors. At present, China's semiconductors have made zero breakthroughs in different products and fields, and the trend of domestic comprehensive breakthrough has taken shape. 2) Focus on the investment main line driven by new products and new markets. At present, smart machines have entered the stock market, and traditional consumer electronics companies have started transformation one after another; In contrast, the new opportunities driven by new markets such as intelligent electric vehicles, VR / AR, server cloud computing and IOT wearable are more worth grasping.
According to the statistics of Gartner, the global semiconductor market space reached $474.1 billion in 2021. Mobile phones and PCs are still important downstream markets, but the growth rate slows down. In terms of growth, the growth rate of automobile is the fastest, up to 25.3%; Followed by IOT, with a growth rate of 18.7%. In addition, AR / VR is also maturing step by step; Looking forward to 2022, the server demand will also accelerate after the introduction of ddr5. Many new products and new markets will drive the long-term growth of the electronic sector. []
Wanlian Securities: the global supply of semiconductor raw gas in Ukraine is tightening or pushing up the cost of the industrial chain
Ukraine's global semiconductor raw material gas supply is tightening or pushing up the cost of the industrial chain. Ukraine is a major supplier of semiconductor raw gas in the world, including neon, argon, krypton, xenon and other gases. Nearly 70% of the global output of neon is supplied by Ukraine, and neon is a necessary raw material. If the supply is blocked, it will affect the global semiconductor industry. Jibang consulting believes that the increasingly complex situation in Russia and Ukraine may impact the inert gas supply in the region. Although it will not cause the interruption of production line in the short term, the reduction of gas supply may still cause the price rise and the semiconductor production cost may rise. Inert gas is mainly used in the semiconductor lithography process, in which the link requiring neon is DUV exposure, and neon is the necessary gas in its required mixed gas, which is difficult to replace. However, Ukraine supplies most of the neon gas in the world. Therefore, its regional economic situation is unstable or will affect the stability of the industrial chain and promote the rise of wafer manufacturing costs in stages. []
East Asia Qianhai Securities: traditional consumer electronics actively explore new development directions, and the field of automotive electronics will usher in historic development opportunities
We believe that traditional consumer electronics has gradually entered a mature stage and the market has entered a saturation stage. Traditional consumer electronics actively explore new development directions, such as photovoltaic, VR / AR, automotive electronics, etc. in the field of automotive electronics, with the promotion of automotive intelligence, electrification and carbon neutralization policies, smart cars will usher in a period of rapid growth. Tesla, the leader of electric vehicles, reduces the difficulty of building cars through vertical integration, breaks through the barriers between the automotive industry and the electronics industry, and enables traditional consumer electronics enterprises to accelerate the layout of new energy vehicle tracks and develop new automotive electronics businesses. In addition, smart phone giants such as apple, Xiaomi and Huawei have joined the automotive industry, driving the electronic parts companies in the industrial chain to expand their automotive business, and the automotive electronics field will usher in a historic development opportunity. []
Guosheng Securities: attach great importance to China's semiconductor and automobile industry, and the pattern will usher in unprecedented reconstruction and change
The global semiconductor boom exceeded expectations, leading equipment orders were strong, wafer factories still showed a price rise trend, and OEM factories continued to expand production. By combing the financial reports of 2021q4 global semiconductor companies that have released financial reports, judging from factors such as orders, revenue, inventory and price, the sustainability of this round of global semiconductor boom is expected to further exceed expectations. The limitation of equipment link lies in the shortage of supply chain, the shortage of silicon wafer lies in the supply and demand pattern, and the cumulative orders are abundant. The gross profit margin guidelines of global wafer factories in 2022q1 generally increased month on month, and the industry still has a price rise trend. According to statistics, in 2022, the growth rate of capex, the world's main OEM, was as high as 42%, and the peak of OEM expansion is expected to exceed expectations.
Attach great importance to the unprecedented reconstruction and change of China's semiconductor and automobile industry pattern, as well as the leader of consumer electronics subdivision track: 1) semiconductor core design: industrial opportunities such as optical chip, storage, simulation, RF, power, FPGA, processor and IP; 2) Semiconductor OEM, packaging and testing and supporting service industry chain; 3) Core target of intelligent vehicle; 4) VR, miniled, panel, optics, battery and other sub tracks; 5) Apple industrial chain core leading company. []
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) : "counting East and counting West" project was officially launched in an all-round way, and attention was paid to the investment opportunities of the new generation ICT industry chain
The project of "counting from the east to the west" was officially launched in an all-round way, focusing on the investment opportunities of the new generation ICT industry chain. The national development and Reform Commission and other departments recently jointly issued a notice agreeing to start the construction of national hub nodes of the national integrated computing network in eight places, including Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, the Great Bay area of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, and Chengdu and Chongqing, marking the completion of the overall layout design of the national integrated big data center system and the official and comprehensive start of the "East data and West computing" project. "Counting from the east to the west" project is a rebalancing and optimization of computing resources and energy supply nationwide under the "double carbon" strategy. It is also a major infrastructure project in the development of digital economy. In this context, the investment opportunities of the communication industry will be further transferred to the new generation of ICT industry. It is suggested to grasp relevant investment opportunities from two main lines: one is the head company with good market pattern and scale effect in the supply chain of new ICT infrastructure such as 5g, cloud, optical network, IOT perception and satellite Internet; Second, in the scenario of the integration of communication and vertical industries, including the high growth segment leaders in the tracks of emerging industries such as aiot, digital energy and smart cars. []
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) : the demand for new energy vehicles drives the continuous growth of MOSFET and IGBT
The demand for new energy vehicles drives the continuous growth of MOSFET and IGBT. Silicon metallocene, whose main device is IGBT, had a revenue of NT $170 million in January 2022, a year-on-year increase of 31%. The revenue of Jieli, Fuding and qiangmao, whose main devices are MOSFETs, increased by 25%, 1% and 26% year-on-year respectively in January 2022. International IDM has significantly increased the output of automotive MOSFET and other automotive power modules, making the MOSFET order part of IT applications partially to China's Taiwan suppliers. According to the passenger car market information joint meeting, the retail volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars in January was 347000, a year-on-year increase of 132%, and the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 16.6%, an increase of 10 percentage points over the same period last year.
IGBT power module generally accounts for about 40% of the cost of the whole electronic control system. The growth in sales of new energy vehicles has directly driven the demand for IGBT. []
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) : the global semiconductor sales reached a new high in 2021, and the growth of automobile chips and analog chips ranked first
Global semiconductor sales reached a new high in 2021, with the growth of automotive chips and analog chips ranking first. According to the data of SIA, in 2021, the global semiconductor sales increased by 26.2% year-on-year to a record high of US $555.9 billion, and the shipment volume also increased to a record high of 1.15 trillion. In terms of application fields, the demand for vehicle specification chips increased significantly, and the sales increased by 34% year-on-year to US $26.4 billion; In terms of product categories, analog chips grew the fastest, with sales increasing by 33.1% year-on-year. In addition, analog chip company ADI released fy1q22 results as of January 29, with revenue of US $2.68 billion (yoy72.3%, qoq14.5%), and the median revenue of fy2q22 is expected to be US $2.8 billion (yoy68.6%, qoq4.5%), which will continue to hit a quarterly high. We believe that the demand for automotive chips and analog chips is still strong, and continue to recommend Sg Micro Corp(300661) , Wuxi Chipown Micro-Electronics Limited(688508) , Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) . []
AVIC Securities: in 2022, automotive power semiconductors will continue to be in short supply of Chinese power semiconductor manufacturers or obtain the driving force for growth
In 2021, automotive semiconductors experienced the largest increase in nearly a decade. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, although the shipment of automotive semiconductors has increased significantly, some American automobile enterprises are still forced to stop production due to lack of core. We believe that the mismatch between supply and demand of automotive semiconductors is mainly due to the rapid growth of global demand for new energy vehicles in 2021 and the complex supply chain of semiconductors, which has reduced the conduction speed of supply and demand. We judge that some automotive power semiconductors will continue to be in short supply in 2022, and Chinese power semiconductor manufacturers may be able to obtain the driving force for sustained growth.
We have counted the production capacity of the world's major power semiconductor manufacturers and found that there is less new production capacity abroad in 2022. China's power semiconductor manufacturers with independent production capacity and entering the automobile supply chain may benefit from this round of core shortage cycle and continue the growth trend in 2021. It is suggested to pay attention to: the leader of high boom industry, and the targets of performance growth are relatively certain: Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) , Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co.Ltd(002484) , Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) , Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) , Shenzhen Kinwong Electronic Co.Ltd(603228) , Wus Printed Circuit (Kunshan) Co.Ltd(002463) . []
