Today (February 23), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock rebound pattern as a whole. The three major A-share indexes opened higher and walked higher, and the gem index led the rise of the two cities, with an obvious upward pattern of shock.
In this regard, Guosheng Securities pointed out that at present, as long as the index is no longer at a new low and maintains the range shock pattern, we can actively pay attention to the market hot spots, grasp the rotation rhythm of the sector, control the position and be cautious to be long.
At the same time, Guoyuan Securities Company Limited(000728) believes that there are “particularity” in the economic environment, building confidence, waiting for verification, thinking more and doing less. Since the beginning of the year, the market is weak, the risk appetite is low, focusing on defensive strategies, and the relative returns of infrastructure and financial sectors under the influence of undervalued and steady growth policies are slightly ahead. Based on the current situation, we believe that some uncertainties outside China are clearing up, A shares are expected to stabilize and confidence should be gradually established, but the investment logic should be verified by economic data and policy signals before making a choice.
sector:
I. automobile
Ping An securities mentioned that in January, the outlook of new energy vehicles continued, and new energy vehicles ushered in the tide of price rise. From the sales volume of new energy vehicles in January announced by some new energy vehicle enterprises, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in January maintained a year-on-year high growth, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles in January is expected to reach about 450000 units. Due to the decline in subsidies and the rise in the price of raw materials for new energy vehicles, some car companies have raised the price of new energy vehicles, with a price increase range of about thousands of yuan. Car companies are relatively cautious in raising prices. The sales volume of new energy vehicles in January may be partially overdrawn, and the demand in subsequent months. The new energy vehicle market in February and March remains to be observed, but in the long run, new energy vehicles will still maintain a high outlook, It is expected to achieve a 50% growth rate in 2022.
Anxin Securities pointed out that it is expected that the traditional vehicle and new energy vehicle industries will improve in an all-round way in 2022. In terms of new energy vehicles, due to the price increase of some models caused by the decline of subsidies and the rise of raw material prices, orders are expected to be slightly affected in the short term. With the recovery of price acceptance of new energy vehicles after the festival, combined with the continued strong terminal demand and abundant unsold orders, the annual sales volume is expected to maintain a high growth. In terms of traditional cars, with the continuous improvement of chip shortage, the orders stored in the early stage are expected to speed up delivery; With the launch of new products by auto enterprises, the demand will be released, and the traditional passenger cars are expected to be significantly improved in 2022.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) said that it is optimistic about the prospect of continuous release of electric vehicle 2C demand. It is expected that car enterprises are still expected to hedge policy fluctuations and rising cost pressure by retaining orders, time limited price protection, and comprehensive adjustment of price and equity, so as to drive the steady release of new orders; Among them, high-end pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid or market segments with strong certainty of sales growth, it is expected that production capacity, supply chain and logistics are still the leading factors affecting the climbing.
The agency further pointed out that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars in 2022e is expected to be 5-5.5 million, and it is optimistic about car companies with strong model product cycle (chip supply mitigation, strong sales volume and profit elasticity), continuous increase of new energy penetration / clear and clear promotion path of intelligent electrification. In the passenger car sector, traditional car companies recommend Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) and Geely Automobile, and it is recommended to pay attention to Byd Company Limited(002594) . New forces recommend Tesla, and it is recommended to pay attention to the ideal for a long time.
II. Military industry
Dongguan Securities pointed out that it is optimistic about the high prosperity of the industry under the demand for equipment upgrading during the 14th Five Year Plan period; From the perspective of usage, with the increase of actual training times, the loss of trainer aircraft and the replenishment of missile inventory are increased. We are optimistic about the aviation industry chain and the missile industry chain with high consumables. On the other hand, Wu Yanhua, deputy director of the National Space Administration, said at the white paper press conference of China’s aerospace in 2021 that in the next five years, we should accelerate the transfer and transformation of aerospace technology achievements to economy and society, and be optimistic about the development of Beidou industrial chain under Aerospace industry services and the Internet of things, as well as the development of special chips under the new round of digital currency reform.
Capital Securities said that by grasping the main line of aviation equipment investment, military electronics has high independent and controllable growth: 1) contract liabilities of main engine factory + verification of advance payment, and the growth of aviation industry chain will continue to be realized. The performance transmission is effective. From the main engine plant and engine system, to the body system and parts, and then to the upstream raw material sector, the whole industry chain has strong momentum and certainty. The main engine manufacturer pays attention to Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Avic Xi’An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) , Avicopter Plc(600038) , Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) ; Body system concerns Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) , China Avionics Systems Co.Ltd(600372) , Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738) , Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) ; Aviation parts focus on Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) , Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) , Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) ; Metal materials focus on Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) , Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) , etc. 2) The certainty of missile weapons and equipment benefits from practical military training. The independent control of military electronics in the field of high-end equipment brings high growth. We pay attention to Chengdu Tianjian Technology Co.Ltd(002977) , Chengdu Rml Technology Co.Ltd(301050) , Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) , Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Beijing Yuanliu Hongyuan Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603267) , Beijing Fjr Optoelectronic Technology Co.Ltd(688272) .
Minsheng securities mentioned that the current position of military industry has the dual attributes of undervalued value and high growth, and has great allocation value. It is suggested to focus on the information and new material segments in the middle and upper reaches of the industrial chain. Suggestions: 1) new materials: Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) , Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass Co.Ltd(300395) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) , Avic Aviation High-Technology Co.Ltd(600862) , Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) , Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) ; 2) Informatization: Beijing Relpow Technology Co.Ltd(300593) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) , Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) , Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , Raytron Technology Co.Ltd(688002) , Chengdu Rml Technology Co.Ltd(301050) , Fujian Torch Electron Technology Co.Ltd(603678) , Beijing Yuanliu Hongyuan Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603267) , Zhuzhou Hongda Electronics Corp.Ltd(300726) , Nanjing Quanxin Cable Technology Co.Ltd(300447) etc; 3) Core supporting and main engine factory: Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Xi’An Triangle Defense Co.Ltd(300775) , Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) , China Avionics Systems Co.Ltd(600372) , Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) , Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738) , Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) , Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) , Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Avicopter Plc(600038) , Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) etc.
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