"After the rise of cultural paper, packaging paper, packaging paper and special paper..." for more than half a month since the beginning of the year of the tiger, due to the continuous high price of upstream raw material wood pulp, various kinds of paper in the paper industry have set off wave after wave of price rise, which has finally affected the household paper closest to consumers recently.
In recent days, major household paper enterprises, including Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) , Liwen paper, jinhongye and Taisheng, have issued price increase letters one after another, ranging from 100 yuan / ton to 200 yuan / ton. According to the latest industry data, as of February 18, the average market price of household paper reached 6450 yuan / ton, up 0.65% from the beginning of the year.
"The main driving force of this narrow rise is the price support of the raw material end. The prices of imported wood pulp disk and spot market are relatively strong, and the cost pressure is still too high for paper enterprises." Zhuo Chuang information analyst Yin Ting told the reporter of Securities Daily.
However, the reporter of Securities Daily learned that at present, the first-line brands have not raised the price of finished products. Many experts interviewed also said that the duration and transaction scale of high prices may not be completely optimistic.
continuous price increase of multiple paper types
Will the rise continue?
Since the Spring Festival of the year of the tiger, the paper industry has been unable to cope with the rising pressure on raw materials and the optimism on the demand side, and the price raising letters of many kinds of paper from various paper enterprises have appeared frequently. Especially in recent days, due to the continuous rise in the spot price and futures price of commodity coniferous pulp, the household paper enterprises that are most sensitive to the price of commodity pulp have also taken over the "baton" of raising the price of cultural paper, whiteboard paper, special paper and other kinds of paper, opening another round of raising the price.
In an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily, Yin Ting, an analyst of Zhuo Chuang information, said that there has been an atmosphere of exploratory rise in some parts since the festival. Yin Ting takes the fluctuation of the average price of household paper market in Shandong, Hebei, Sichuan and Guangxi as an example. Since the festival, the average price center of Sichuan, Chongqing and some parts of northern China has moved up compared with that before the festival. Among them, the low-end price in Hebei has increased by about 200 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival, driving the average price of the market to rise by 100 yuan / ton; The high price of bleached bamboo pulp in Sichuan is 100 yuan / ton higher than that before the festival, driving the average market price up by 50 yuan / ton.
Whether this round of household paper price increase can be effectively promoted is judged by the industry in a relatively consistent way, that is, it still depends on the price support of the raw material side. Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) the latest view is that the price of wood pulp is still in the rising cycle, and the cost still plays a supporting role in the rise of the price of household paper.
In this context, the reporter of Securities Daily also learned in the interview that cultural paper and white cardboard, which also use wood pulp as raw materials as household paper, also started to form a certain confidence and boost the market in the spring publishing bidding, and then lifted the price rise tide in March.
Since this week, several paper mills including Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) , app, Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) , Huatai Paper, Jianghe paper, Yueyang Forest & Paper Co.Ltd(600963) have issued price increase letters in March, with an increase range of about 300 yuan / ton. At the same time, some small and medium-sized paper mills are also planning to increase in a narrow range.
In an interview with Securities Daily, Wang Meiting, a researcher of Bank Of China Limited(601988) Research Institute, believes that this round of price increase of paper enterprises is not a phased price increase, but may be highly sustainable. "From the perspective of specific driving forces, in addition to the continuous rise in pulp prices since the epidemic, the current electricity and chemicals used by paper enterprises are rising continuously or the prices remain high. These factors have led to the continuous price rise in the paper market. When the expectations of various producers in the market are relatively consistent, they will be transmitted to the terminal price." Wang Meiting said.
listen to the wind and "store paper"?
experts say it's not necessary
The rise of other kinds of paper may not be obvious at the terminal, while household paper and cultural paper are different. If the price rise momentum will continue, the paper industry is coming out of the trough as expected, and the prosperity is gradually recovering, will the future terminal price also be bullish? Is it necessary for ordinary consumers to "hoard paper" after hearing the wind? In the interview, the views given by most industry people and experts are unnecessary.
On the one hand, from the recent supply and demand of household paper and cultural paper, Yin Ting believes that with the elimination of festival factors and the recovery of logistics, the overall supply of household paper will return to a relatively normal level. Moreover, according to incomplete statistics of Zhuo Chuang information, since the beginning of January, the new capacity of the household paper market has reached production capacity of about 210000 tons, and the situation of overcapacity in the industry is becoming more and more serious.
From the demand side, there is no clear positive signal release from the current terminal channel. Not only the follow-up of finished product orders is poor, but also the first-line brands have not raised the price of finished products. "Recently, with some paper enterprises actively supporting prices, there may be a narrow upward exploration space in the focus of some areas, but the duration of high prices and transaction scale may be difficult to be completely optimistic. The focus also depends on the follow-up of downstream demand." Yin Ting said.
On the other hand, from the commodity attributes of the terminals of household paper and cultural paper and the situation of manufacturers and brands, there is no need to "store paper".
Wang Meiting said that paper products have the characteristics of large volume, low value and less goods in circulation. It is not recommended that any consumers rush to buy and hoard paper products.
Fan Guiwen, general manager of Kumara (China) Co., Ltd., also believed that cost pressure is faced by all manufacturers, and manufacturers and brands with advantages in brands and channels can usually increase prices. "However, big brand manufacturers can hedge the risk of fluctuations in bleached pulp board through pulp futures and other tools. Enterprises with their own pulp mills will have much less concern in this regard." Fan Guiwen said.
For consumers, household paper and copy paper account for a low proportion in the daily expenses of ordinary consumers, are less sensitive to price changes, and have little impact on expenses. "Of course, many consumers will think that household paper can always be used. Since there is an expectation of rising prices, if they buy more at home earlier, they will still have a sense of satisfaction and security of 'hoarding goods'. But this is more psychological." Fan Guiwen said.
