In February 22nd, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the opinions on doing a good job in promoting the key work of Rural Revitalization in 2022, which is issued in 2022 No. 1 central document. This is the No. 1 Central Document No. nineteenth since twenty-first Century guiding the work of agriculture, rural areas and farmers. The second opinion points out that we should vigorously implement the soybean and oil production capacity improvement project. We will increase subsidies for farmland rotation and incentives for large oil producing counties, focus on supporting appropriate regions, key varieties and business service subjects, promote belt composite planting of corn and soybean in the Huang Huai Hai, northwest and southwest regions, carry out grain and bean rotation in the northeast region, and promote the pilot of water to drought and rice to beans in some underground water overexploitation areas and well irrigated rice areas in cold areas in Heilongjiang Province, Develop winter fallow fields and expand rape planting in the Yangtze River Basin. Carry out demonstration of soybean planting in saline alkali land.
Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai securities and director of the Research Institute, told the Securities Daily that Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) safety has always been the focus of attention in the process of national development, especially the supply and food safety of the whole industrial chain. In recent months, the price of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) has increased in varying degrees due to overseas inflation and the impact of overseas epidemic on production. As one of the most important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , how to effectively stimulate China's production enthusiasm and ensure the stability of supply is an important task. At the same time, it is also related to important links such as common prosperity and Rural Revitalization, Through active policy adjustment, it is also an inevitable requirement to strengthen supply guarantee in some core regions.
tight supply and demand of soybean
the future price is expected to stabilize
Due to the adverse impact of the expected reduction of soybean production in South America, the pace of loosening of supply and demand in the global bean market has slowed down. As of the closing on February 22, the main futures price of dou2 (imported soybean) reached 5272 yuan / ton, a 14 year high. The main futures price of soybean oil was 10216 yuan / ton, with a cumulative increase of 26.24% in the past two months. The main futures price of soybean meal closed at 3877 yuan / ton, the second high since the price hit 3903 yuan / ton on February 11.
Different from the high prices of dou2, soybean oil and soybean meal, the main price of dou1 (domestic soybean) has fallen for eight consecutive trading days and closed at 6065 yuan / ton on February 22. In terms of spot goods, according to the data of business agency on February 22, the market price of domestic soybean in Heilongjiang is 6052 yuan / ton.
Li Bing, an analyst at business agency Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , pointed out that during the Spring Festival, the market of external soybeans mainly rose. After the Spring Festival, Liandou ushered in a rising market. As the main body of spot purchase has not yet entered the market, the spot market is relatively stable, mainly due to the hanging price purchase of national storage, the market of traders is stable, the mainstream quotation is about 3 yuan / kg, and the domestic soybean market still maintains a stable operation. By the middle of February, the domestic soybean market was still weak and stable. The shipment price of some traders increased, and the purchase price was stable, lasting for 3-3.03 yuan / kg. In March, the purchase and sale of domestic soybeans may resume in an all-round way.
On February 22, the State Food and materials Reserve Bureau issued a notice. According to the current market situation in China and abroad, relevant state departments decided to arrange some central reserve edible oil tankers to export, and will start the policy soybean auction to increase the supply of soybeans and edible oil in the market. Soybean prices are expected to stabilize.
improve the self-sufficiency rate of soybean
is related to food security
In 2021 / 2022, China's annual soybean output was only 1640 tons, accounting for less than 5% of the global soybean output and nearly 10% of China's soybean demand. The average annual consumption of soybeans in China is as high as 100 million tons, with an average consumption of 70 kg / year per person.
However, due to the low relative income of soybean, farmers' willingness to plant soybean shows a downward trend, and with the improvement of people's living standards and the rapid development of breeding industry, the demand for soybean oil and soybean meal has increased significantly, and the gap between soybean production and demand is large and exists for a long time. China's self-produced soybean quantity is far from meeting China's demand, and nearly 90% need to rely on soybean imports from the United States, Brazil, Argentina and other countries.
The central rural economic work conference in December 2021 further proposed to stabilize the grain area and vigorously expand the production of soybeans and oilseeds to ensure that the grain output will be stable at more than 1.3 trillion Jin in 2022. In addition, the meeting of directors of the national Department of agriculture and Rural Affairs held in the same month pointed out that the expansion of soybean oil production should be regarded as a major political task that must be completed next year. The 14th five year plan for planting industry issued on December 29, 2021 requires that by 2025, the sown area of soybean should reach about 160 million mu, an increase of 8.11% over 2020; The output reached about 23 million tons, an increase of 17.35% over 2020, promoting the improvement of soybean self-sufficiency rate.
Corresponding to the increase of yield, the soybean planting area is also rising. According to the data of China Academy of Commerce and industry, the soybean planting area in China increased year by year from 7599000 hectares to 9332000 hectares from 2016 to 2020, an increase of 1733000 hectares, an increase of 22.8%. In 2021, the sown area of soybean in China will drop to 8400 thousand hectares. The trend of soybean yield is consistent with the trend of sowing area.
In 2020, China's soybean planting area will be 148 million mu and the soybean output will be 19.6 million tons. In 2021, the sown area of soybean in China decreased to 126 million mu, a decrease of 22 million mu over the previous year, a year-on-year decrease of 14.8%, and the output was 16.4 million tons, a decrease of 3.2 million tons over the previous year, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4%; The unit yield of soybean was 130 kg / mu, and the yield per mu decreased by 2.3 kg or 1.8% over the previous year.
take more positive measures
ensure soybean production expansion and income
The main soybean planting areas in China are Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Anhui, Henan, Sichuan, Jilin, Hubei and other places. The planting area of the three northeastern provinces accounts for 50% of the national soybean planting area, of which the perennial soybean planting area of Heilongjiang accounts for about 40% of the country. It is the largest high-quality soybean production and supply base and soybean production protection area in China. In order to cope with the current tight supply and demand in the soybean market, strive to reduce the dependence on imported soybeans, and take positive measures to increase production and ensure income.
On January 19, Heilongjiang released the work plan for expanding soybean planting in Heilongjiang Province in 2022. The plan pointed out that "we should vigorously implement the soybean production capacity improvement project, expand the soybean planting area, tap the per unit yield potential of soybean and improve the quality of soybean." In 2022, the goal of soybean planting area in Heilongjiang is to reach 68.5 million mu, an increase of more than 10 million mu over 2021; Strive to achieve a total output of 17 billion jin (8.5 million tons), an increase of more than 2.6 billion jin (1.3 million tons) over 2021, an increase of 18%. In addition, in order to improve the enthusiasm of soybean planting and narrow the income difference with corn planting, Heilongjiang issued policies to increase soybean producer subsidies.
Inner Mongolia is the second largest soybean planting area in China. In recent years, the sown area and total yield of soybean in Inner Mongolia have recovered, with a sown area of up to 18.025 million mu. In 2021, the soybean planting area in Inner Mongolia was 17.25 million mu, accounting for about 14% of the country. In 2022, 4.3 million mu of soybeans will be planted in Inner Mongolia, with an increase of 25%, so as to further tap the production potential of soybeans.
In addition, in order to do a good job in soybean production, Henan Province will develop 1 million mu of soybean corn belt compound species in 2022. Sichuan preliminarily determined to expand the planting of 3.1 million mu of soybeans, which is the largest grain crop in the province, with an increase of about 48%.
Wang Wei, an analyst at Zhongyuan futures, said that since the second half of 2018, the price of domestic soybeans in China has continued to rise for three years. Affected by tight supply and strong demand, the price of Douyi futures in 2021 remained at a historical high of 5500-6500 yuan / ton. In order to ensure the safety of oil supply, the state has repeatedly proposed to "vigorously expand the production of soybeans and oil". Spring ploughing in 2022 is about to begin, and all provinces have actively issued plans to expand the planting of soybeans. It is expected that the planting area of soybeans in China will increase restoratively in the next two years, and the output is expected to increase significantly.
