In January 2022, the automobile sales volume reached 2.531 million, with a chain comparison of – 9.2%. The sales volume of passenger cars reached 2.186 million, with – 9.7% month on month and + 6.7% year on year, in line with market expectations. The sales volume of commercial vehicles reached 344000, with a month on month decrease of – 5.5% and a year-on-year decrease of – 25.0%. The sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 431000, a year-on-year increase of + 135.8%. Affected by the tight supply of chips, the current market still reflects the situation of “demand is better than supply”. It is expected that the terminal will have a mild stock replenishment market after the Spring Festival holiday. At present, independent brands continue to rise, and the industry profit margin recovers quarter by quarter. It is suggested to focus on grasping the rebound opportunity of the automobile sector and maintain the rating of “stronger than the big market” of the automobile sector.
Matters: on February 18, 2022, China Automobile Industry Association released the automobile production and sales data in January 2022. Our comments are as follows:
Total automobile volume: in January, the sales volume was 2.531 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.9%, in line with expectations. According to the data of China Automobile Association, in January 2022, China’s automobile production was 2.422 million, with a chain comparison of – 16.7% and a year-on-year increase of + 1.4%; In January, the sales volume was 2.531 million, with a month on month increase of – 9.2% and a year-on-year increase of + 0.9%. In January, the number of narrow passenger cars insured in China reached 2.173 million, with a month on month ratio of – 0.6% and a year-on-year ratio of – 4.1%, basically in line with expectations. On the whole, the chip supply continued to ease in January, with the introduction of stable growth policies by local governments, and the market demand will remain relatively stable.
Passenger cars: in January, the sales volume of passenger cars was 2.186 million, and the independent brand continued to maintain a bright performance. In January 2022, the production / sales of 2.077 million vehicles / 2.186 million vehicles were realized respectively, with a month on month ratio of – 17.8% / – 9.7% and a year-on-year ratio of + 8.7% / + 6.7% respectively. In terms of models, the year-on-year growth rate of sales of cars, SUVs, MPVS and crossover passenger cars was + 4.1%, – 1.4%, + 8.7% and + 78.0% respectively. In terms of structure, the sales volume of independent brands in January was 1.004 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 15.9%. The market share of independent brands reached 45.9% in a single month, with a month on month increase of -1.0 PCT We expect that 2022 will still be a year for independent brands to continue to increase their share, and the growth rate of market share of independent brands will continue to be the leading year of the industry α。
The average daily sales volume increased slightly month on month, and the demand for passenger cars during the Spring Festival was stable. After deducting the Spring Festival holiday, the actual effective production and sales days in January were 29 days. The average daily wholesale sales of passenger cars in January reached 75000, a month on month increase of – 3.5%, a year-on-year increase of + 14.3%, an increase of 3.2% compared with January 2019; In January, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars reached 75000, with a month on month increase of + 6.6% and a year-on-year increase of + 2.8%, a decrease of 11.6% compared with January 2019. From the data of average effective sales days per day, the overall demand for passenger cars remained stable and did not fluctuate much. In January, the average daily wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles was 15000, with a month on month increase of – 7.5% and a year-on-year increase of + 168.2%.
Commercial vehicles: in January, the sales volume of commercial vehicles was 344000 units, and the sales volume improved significantly month on month. In January 2022, the output of commercial vehicles was 345000, with – 9.3% month on month and – 28.0% year on year; The sales volume was 344000 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of – 5.5% and a year-on-year ratio of – 25.0%. By model, the sales volume of heavy trucks, medium trucks, light trucks and micro trucks reached 95000 / 9000 / 162000 / 47000 respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 48.0%, – 45.8%, – 16.5% and + 64.7% respectively. Among them, the sales volume of heavy trucks improved significantly month on month (mom + 65.1%), mainly because the transition period of “national five year plan” vehicle sales ended at the end of 2021, The channel’s “national five year plan” vehicle inventory has been well digested, and the overdraft effect of inventory vehicles on new car sales has been significantly weakened. With the steady growth policies successively launched by the state, the demand of the infrastructure industry is expected to increase, which is expected to form a good pull on the sales of heavy trucks. In January, 30000 passenger cars were produced and sold, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 14.9% / – 15.8%. Among them, large passenger cars and medium passenger cars sold 2700 cars, with a year-on-year growth rate of + 10.3% / – 16.1% respectively.
New energy vehicles: the sales volume in January was 431000, with a year-on-year increase of + 135.8%, continuing the high growth trend. In January 2022, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 452000 / 431000 respectively, with a month on month ratio of – 12.6% / – 18.6% and a year-on-year ratio of + 133.2% / + 135.8% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles in January reached 437000 / 419000 respectively, with a month on month ratio of – 10.4% / – 15.7% and a year-on-year ratio of + 134.6% / + 138.7% respectively. The sales volume accounted for 19.2% of the passenger vehicle market, higher than the level of last year. The production and sales of new energy commercial vehicles in January were 16000 / 12000 respectively. In terms of models, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 367000 / 346000 in January, an increase of 1.2 times year-on-year; The production and sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles were 85000, an increase of 2.0 times year-on-year.
Risk factors: macroeconomic growth rate is down; The sales volume of the industry is lower than expected; The implementation of consumption incentive policies did not meet expectations.
Investment strategy: in January, the industry production and sales data were released smoothly, and the sales of new energy vehicles continued to maintain year-on-year growth. Affected by chip supply, the current market still reflects the situation of “demand is better than supply”. It is expected that there will be a mild stock replenishment market at the terminal after the Spring Festival holiday. As the independent brand continues to rise and the industry profit margin recovers quarter by quarter, it is suggested to focus on grasping the rebound opportunity of the automobile sector. In the parts sector, we give priority to recommending growth companies with global competitiveness: Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) (smart sensor), Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) (integrated die casting), Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) (EGR leader + rapid growth of motor iron core), Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) (global leader in automotive seat headrest, new expansion of passenger car seat business), Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) (China leader in automotive braking system), Nextel (benefiting from the launch of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automotive products) Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) (electric, intelligent and lightweight faucet), Iat Automobile Technology Co.Ltd(300825) (rapid increase in automobile design orders), Foryou Corporation(002906) (arhud), Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) (sky glass). In the passenger car sector, we mainly recommend three new car making forces: Xiaopeng automobile, ideal automobile and Weilai automobile, as well as Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (a + H) leading personalized consumption and accelerating the transformation of intelligent electric, DM-I strong Byd Company Limited(002594) (a + H), and independent brands ushering in the reversal of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (a + H).
