On Tuesday, affected by the fermentation of geopolitical risks, the main A-share index opened low and went low. It was adjusted weakly throughout the day. The volume of the Shanghai index fell by more than 1% and the gem index fell by more than 2%. The concept stocks of “counting from the east to the west” are differentiated, and the front row stocks continue to be strong, with GEM stocks Capitalonline Date Service Co.Ltd(300846) and Yimikang Tech.Group.Co.Ltd(300249) all connected to the third board. Gaming and pharmaceutical stocks led the declines. Several heavyweights such as Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell to varying degrees, dragging down the index, while Petrochina Company Limited(601857) performed strongly.
Although the index was weak on Tuesday and individual stocks generally fell, the short-term mood was still good. There were 31 continuous board stocks on Monday and 16 continued to rise by the limit on Tuesday, with the promotion rate of continuous board stocks exceeding 50%. In addition, new shares listed on the gem rose nearly 300% during the session, and the trading of secondary new shares C was also temporarily suspended during the session. Market participants believe that the core factors of the market are gradually changing from policy and event to performance, and the quantity and energy can not be amplified. The structural market characteristics under the stock game are obvious, and the probability of short-term shock consolidation of the market is high.
peripheral market risk disturbance
On Tuesday, the three major A-share indexes were disturbed by the peripheral market and fell after opening low collectively. The record index once fell more than 2% in early trading. Affected by risk aversion, most sectors are in a downward trend, but the overall market is still divided. Among the main indexes, the smallest decline is Chuang growth index, while the largest decline is Chuang blue chip index. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.96% to 3457.15 points; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.29% to 13297.11 points; The gem index fell 1.38% to 2765.91. 886 in the two cities rose, 3766 fell and 64 in flat trading.
On February 22, the total turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 978.3 billion yuan, an increase of 77.9 billion yuan over the previous trading day. A total of 58 stocks in the two cities rose by more than 9%, and 10 stocks fell by more than 9%. The total net outflow of funds from the North was 7.34 billion yuan. Among them, the net outflow of Shanghai Stock connect was 4.242 billion yuan and that of Shenzhen Stock connect was 3.098 billion yuan. Insiders believe that the volume of the A-share market can not be effectively amplified, the structural market characteristics under the stock game are obvious, the probability of short-term slight shock consolidation is large, and the trend investment opportunities still need to be continuously improved in terms of policy and capital.
Judging from the reasons for Tuesday’s decline, on Monday, peripheral geopolitical risks continued to release, affecting the financial market. Jingyang finance and Economics said that geopolitical problems may be just the external cause of the weakening of A-Shares again. The main reason is that the index fluctuated upward, but the institution did not enter the market. In fact, it is not only domestic funded institutions, but also foreign capital has been flowing out continuously during this period. In terms of northward funds, the net outflow on Tuesday was close to 10 billion yuan, and it is rare to change from a net inflow of 30 billion yuan to a net outflow of 30 billion yuan in the past month, which is the reason for the unstable foundation of the market. The geopolitical crisis will be passed smoothly. A series of fluctuations in the capital market caused by the crisis are short-term behaviors. A typical example is gold, a pure hedging variety. Although there have been repeated fluctuations recently, the key factor for the sustainability of the market is whether the crisis has escalated. If the crisis escalates, the speculation will continue, otherwise it will cool down quickly. In addition to crude oil and gas reserves, the two countries can export only as related resources.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) believes that the trading volume of the two cities failed to exceed the trillion yuan level. Since the Spring Festival holiday, the market has experienced a sharp decline to a slow decline, and the market sentiment has been repaired briefly. However, the geopolitical tension may continue, superimposed on the gradual digestion of the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates, and market uncertainties will inhibit the recovery of market wind preference. Therefore, it is recommended to be cautious in operation and wait for the overseas situation to be clear. Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) pointed out that the short-term trend of US stocks may still be an important external factor affecting the A-share market. At present, the core factors affecting US stocks are gradually shifting from policies and events to performance. From defensive to offensive stage, A-Shares may usher in a small and medium-sized growth moment.
focus on high performance growth varieties
In terms of sectors, non-ferrous metals rose against the market trend on February 22, Chenzhou City Jingui Silver Industry Co.Ltd(002716) , Western Region Gold Co.Ltd(601069) , Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) and Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Jinzhou Jixiang Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603399) , Shantou Wanshun New Material Group Co.Ltd(300057) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) rose by more than 4%. The performance of the petroleum and petrochemical sector was eye-catching. Heavyweights Petrochina Company Limited(601857) rose against the trend, the stability maintenance index, Hunan Heshun Petroleum Co.Ltd(603353) rose by the limit, Xinjiang International Industry Co.Ltd(000159) rose by more than 7%, and Zhongman Petroleum And Natural Gas Group Corp.Ltd(603619) , Xinjiang Beiken Energy Engineering Co.Ltd(002828) , Shenzhen Guangju Energy Co.Ltd(000096) rose by more than 4%. Liquor stocks led the decline, with leading Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) falling more than 2%, weighing on the index. The online game sector fell across the board, Chengdu B-Ray Media Co.Ltd(600880) , Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) , Shanghai Yaoji Technology Co.Ltd(002605) once fell by the limit, Shenzhen Zqgame Co.Ltd(300052) , Kunlun Tech Co.Ltd(300418) , Wuxi Boton Technology Co.Ltd(300031) fell by more than 5%.
In addition to precious metals, the “counting East and west” with the most hot money participation in these two days is still fermenting. Several branch sectors, such as the concept of computing power and data center, rose against the trend. From the recent transaction data, it is almost driven by hot money in recent days, and the institutional funds adopt the strategy of closing at high prices.
Jingyang finance and Economics said that the foundation of the market rebound is not strong, and there are few hot spots that can continue to run through the market, so it is considered to cash in the income as soon as possible. In addition, you can pay attention to the high growth forecast of the first quarter report. The forecast was released on Monday Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) . It is estimated that the net profit in the first quarter of 2022 will be 900 million yuan to 1.2 billion yuan, an increase of 10.54 times to 14.38 times.
funds turn to the main line of prosperity
The volatility of overseas markets has increased. For the medium and long-term funds in the current A-share market, they are not concerned about short-term interference factors, but whether the medium and long-term investment logic has changed.
At present, the logic of medium and long-term capital recognition has not changed. No matter how changeable the international situation is, the macroeconomic basic sector backed by A-Shares is still strong. Moreover, with the continuous implementation of measures to stabilize growth, the resilience of the economy has been further enhanced.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) believes that under the background of the continuous upward uncertainty risks overseas, China’s continued easing and steady growth and hedging the downward pressure on the economy, pay attention to the regression of the disturbance of the epidemic and some undervalued sectors expected to be repaired in the adjustment of steady growth, and focus on the value blue chip targets with better defense ability in the downward economic environment.
Bian Fengwei, director of Shanghai Research Department, believes that the market fell unilaterally on February 22, but there are not many hot spots in the market. Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) on February 22, the dynamic P / E ratio is about 35 to 40 times. If the P / E ratio of 35 times as a new energy company is low and the P / E ratio of 35 times as a cyclical stock is high, the key lies in whether it can conduct to the middle and lower reaches. If the middle and lower reaches cannot conduct, the more it rises, the faster the middle and lower reaches fall. Recently, the capital side of the market is obviously tight. Once the capital going north is withdrawn, the blue chip of some consumption will decline greatly.
