Affected by the external market, the three major A-share indexes opened low today (February 22), then fell rapidly and maintained a low and weak shock pattern. On the disk, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has revived, the global risk aversion market has heated up, and the industry and concept sectors have fallen more and rose less. Only a few sectors such as gold and oil and gas have taken the lead. The concept of “counting from the east to the west” is differentiated, and the performance of individual targets is always strong. In addition, the performance of targets of salt lake lithium extraction industry chain is also relatively resistant to decline, and the local profit-making effect is general.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) mentioned that at present, the volume of A-share market is slightly insufficient and the style is not clear. The impact of news on the performance of the sector is more obvious and frequent, mainly because investors have great differences in their judgment on the future market trend.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] gold
East Asia Qianhai securities mentioned that the overseas epidemic and geopolitical conflict intensified, economic uncertainty increased, and gold prices were supported. In the context of the continuous spread of the global epidemic, the uncertainty of the future economic situation still exists. On the other hand, geopolitical conflicts such as the Ukrainian issue continue to appear, which exacerbates the volatility of the global market. Therefore, the global economic uncertainty increases and the gold price is ready to go.
Baocheng futures also pointed out that the situation in Ukraine strengthened the safe haven attribute of gold. In the short term, the situation in Ukraine catalyzes the acceleration of gold upward, so we need to be vigilant against the impact of the decline of VIX high on gold. The main logic of gold will return to the hedging value brought by the decline of US stocks under the expected background of interest rate increase. Therefore, gold can still be long before the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting in March.
Dongzheng futures said that the geopolitical risks of Russia and Ukraine have brought risk aversion. Since the beginning of the year, due to the high inflation in the United States and the repricing of monetary policy, the risk aversion attribute of gold has regained capital favor, and the investment targets, including gold related stocks, gold ETFs and gold futures, have received capital inflows. In the short term, the Russian Ukrainian problem is difficult to alleviate or worsen rapidly. The risk aversion gives gold some support. Even if the risk subsides, the callback space is relatively limited.
In addition, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting in January showed that the Fed policymakers attending the meeting expected to start raising interest rates soon, and did not disclose the clue that interest rates could be raised by 50 basis points at a time; Many people believe that it is suitable to start the scale reduction later this year, without mentioning the possible time point and scale of the scale reduction; There are also discussions and concerns about the potential risks of the economy. Compared with the strong expectation of interest rate increase in the market, there is no new hawkish signal release. Meanwhile, at a time of tension in Russia and Ukraine, the market’s expectation of the Fed raising interest rates by 50bp in March decreased. Fundamentals and geopolitics are relatively bullish on gold.
In addition, Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) pointed out that gold jewelry consumption has opened a new business cycle. Since the third quarter of 2020, the growth rate of gold, silver and jewelry sales above the limit has begun to exceed the growth rate of social zero consumption, and gold consumption has shown a high momentum. Since 2022, the growth rate of gold and jewelry consumption has been strong. In January, the sales of dealers increased by 30% – 50% year-on-year. During the Spring Festival, the national gold consumption still increased by 13% under the background of last year’s Spring Festival superimposing the high base of Valentine’s day. []
[Topic 2] natural gas
Minsheng Securities said that the supply and demand of the global crude oil market will maintain a tight balance in 2022: (1) supply side: the idle capacity is limited, and the supply increment is less than expected. (2) Demand side: the impact of the epidemic has been effectively controlled, and the demand is expected to exceed the pre epidemic level. According to OPEC’s monthly report in January 2022, the global demand for crude oil is expected to reach 100.79 million barrels / day in 2022, exceeding the demand of 100.10 million barrels in 2019. To sum up, we believe that in 2022, the fundamentals of global crude oil supply and demand are expected to continue to maintain a tight balance, which will continue to drive the upward fluctuation of crude oil prices.
The agency further analyzed that the crude oil price may continue to fluctuate upward in 2022 and remain at a medium high level throughout the year. Therefore, we suggest paying attention to the upstream crude oil mining industry whose profitability benefits from the rise of crude oil and the oil service industry which benefits from the increase of capital expenditure under high oil prices. We suggest paying attention to Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) and Zhongman Petroleum And Natural Gas Group Corp.Ltd(603619) with new crude oil mining and sales business.
In addition, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) pointed out that we expect the global crude oil supply and demand pattern to remain tight in 2022, so we continue to be firmly optimistic about the prosperity of the petrochemical sector. The tight pattern of crude oil supply and demand fundamentals continues, and the geopolitical situation is changeable, which has brought great uncertainty to the short-term crude oil supply. We believe that the global crude oil supply and demand pattern will remain tight in 2022, continue to be firmly optimistic about the prosperity of the petrochemical sector and the upstream oil and gas enterprises represented by Petrochina Company Limited(601857) . In the follow-up, we will focus on the implementation of OPEC + production increase, the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, the progress of the negotiation of the Iranian nuclear agreement, the spread of Omikron strain, the progress of vaccination and the development of covid-19 specific drugs. []
[Theme 3] lithium extraction from Salt Lake
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) mentioned that lithium prices in different regions of the world differentiated in 2021, showing the impact of long order sales mode in overseas markets on product prices. In 2022, with the elimination of the impact of long-term single pricing, it is expected that the global lithium price will resonate upward, and the price of lithium compounds exported by China to Japan and South Korea will also accelerate. Imported low-cost lithium carbonate products will continue to disturb the lithium price in China’s market in 2022, or lead to high volatility in China’s lithium price. Under the background of global lithium price resonance upward, integrated lithium producers will fully benefit from the advantages of guaranteed supply and low cost. Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) are recommended. It is recommended to pay attention to Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) and Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) .
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) said that as the demand of new energy industry continues to improve in 2022, the central probability of lithium price will remain high in the whole year of 22 years. When the market sees that the price of lithium salt continues to be strong and gradually expects the price formation, it will focus on the performance improvement brought by the enterprise’s expansion of its own alpha. This is also the logic that we have always mentioned that the lithium sector is “volume” rather than “price” in the long term. We are still firmly optimistic about the allocation value of lithium sector in the whole year of 22, and we suggest paying attention to the performance forecast period in 2022.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that the gap between supply and demand widened again at the end of the year, and the price of cobalt and lithium accelerated upward. (1) Lithium: some manufacturers shut down for maintenance at the end of the year, the output of lithium carbonate fell for nine consecutive weeks, and the gap between supply and demand is still widening. Since the beginning of the year, the lithium hydroxide inventory has continued to decline. The retail of new energy vehicles and the production scheduling of cathode materials in November show that the demand side maintains a high boom and maintains the bullish view of lithium price; (2) Nickel: the purchase demand of nickel salt downstream factories is poor, and the increase of quotation further affects the purchase enthusiasm. The market is mainly wait-and-see, and the upward space of nickel sulfate price is under pressure; (3) Cobalt: the precursor and four cobalt manufacturers may have some replenishment due to the adjustment of production plan. The rhythm of goods collection in the downstream years ago is gradually rising, and the superimposed head enterprises reduce output, and the cobalt price is expected to continue to rise.
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[theme 4] East number and West calculation
Donghai securities mentioned that the project of “counting from the east to the west” was officially launched. “Counting from the east to the west” project belongs to digital infrastructure construction, that is, new infrastructure construction. The construction of computing hub and data center cluster will expand the effective investment in upstream and downstream industrial chains and help the economy achieve steady growth. The data center industrial chain includes not only traditional civil engineering, but also it equipment manufacturing, information and communication, basic software, green energy supply, etc., which may boost the relevant industrial chains in the future.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the East digital West computing project is expected to drive the overall improvement of computing power demand in the central and western regions, and the key benefits of the communication industry chain. It is expected to drive the development of data centers and related upstream and downstream industries and expand industrial investment through the layout of 8 computing hubs and the formation of data center clusters across the country. We are optimistic about the demand drive of the East digital West computing project for IDC, ICT equipment, optical modules, operators, temperature control equipment, optical communication and other fields.
As the core base of the East digital West computing project, the communication sector is expected to benefit mainly: 1) operators: the advantages of cloud network integration and cloud edge combination of operators are prominent. Operators have a large-scale computing power layout in the central and western regions, and the public cloud and edge cloud are also growing rapidly, which is expected to continuously improve the operating efficiency. It is suggested to pay attention to China Mobile, China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) , China United Network Communications Limited(600050) ;
2) temperature control equipment: green energy-saving development of data center + stricter pue control is expected to continue to promote the demand for temperature control equipment. It is recommended to pay attention to Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) , Nanjing Canatal Data-Centre Environmental Tech Co.Ltd(603912) ;
3) ICT equipment & optical module: ICT equipment and optical module are the basis of computing power network. The construction of data center cluster + the increasing demand for computing power is expected to promote the expansion and upgrading of servers, switches, routers and optical modules. It is recommended to pay attention to Unisplendour Corporation Limited(000938) , Zte Corporation(000063) , Zhongji Innolight Co.Ltd(300308) , Eoptolink Technology Inc.Ltd(300502) , Suzhou Tfc Optical Communication Co.Ltd(300394) ;
4) optical communication: the explosion of data traffic is expected to accelerate the promotion of optical fiber communication to all-optical network. It is optimistic that the centralized procurement volume and price of optical fiber and optical cable of operators will rise together to promote the high-quality growth of the industry. It is recommended to pay attention to Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) , Hengtong Optic-Electric Co.Ltd(600487) , Yangtze Optical Fibre And Cable Joint Stock Limited Company(601869) ;
5) IDC: under the policy environment of counting from the east to the west, the energy consumption indicators of first tier cities are becoming stricter. The advantages of IDC leaders with strong foundation and in-depth cooperation with Internet and cloud manufacturers in and around first tier cities continue to highlight. It is suggested to pay attention to Shanghai Baosight Software Co.Ltd(600845) , Beijing Sinnet Technology Co.Ltd(300383) , Guangdong Aofei Data Technology Co.Ltd(300738) , Kehua Data Co.Ltd(002335) .
In addition, Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) pointed out that the “East digital West computing” project will focus on supporting innovative contents such as green data center (green energy conservation, renewable energy and energy storage), efficient scheduling of computing power (Cloud Computing), and controllable innovation of computing power (domestic basic software and hardware, cloud platform, big data analysis). The project of “counting from the east to the west” will drive the demand opportunities of data center operation and civil engineering, it equipment manufacturing, information and communication, basic software and green energy supply in the industrial chain. []
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