Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) : optimistic about the three logical exposures of the lithium sector, focusing on the idea of "performance + growth"
The deterministic supply and demand gap of lithium mines in 2022 and 2023 will be greatly alleviated in 2024 and 2025. The sustainability of this round of supply-demand mismatch will exceed expectations and continue to be optimistic about investment opportunities in the lithium sector. Focus on the idea of "performance + growth". Focus on companies with resources, processing capacity and growth in the future, such as leading Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng lithium industry, elastic targets Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) .
Logic 1: the supply cycle of lithium ore is 6-8 years on average, and the supply growth rate is slow. In the supply cycle of mines in Australia, the exploration and research stage needs to go through three stages: project feasibility study (DFS) and final investment decision (FID), with an average time of more than 5 years; After the feasibility study, the average time of mine design preparation, commissioning and approval is 1-2 years; The average time from mine production to production is 1-2 years; The average production cycle of the mine after shutdown is 2-5 years. Most of the mines to be developed in the world are in the DFS stage and are expected to be put into production in 24-26 years.
Logic 2: lithium battery industry chain expansion cycle mismatch. The price rise logic of silicon and lithium ore in 2021 is resumed, and the mismatch between supply and demand is the main reason. However, more than 80% of silicon production capacity is concentrated in China, and the average period of production expansion is 1.5 years. The release of production capacity in 2022 may stabilize the demand, the industry enters a new round of balance, and the high silicon price is difficult to sustain. 80% of lithium ore production capacity is concentrated abroad. The construction and operation cycle is 3-5 years on average, and the production progress may be less than expected. The release speed and difficulty of the supply side determine the difference between the follow-up trend of lithium ore and silicon material, and the lithium price is difficult to have a big inflection point in recent years.
Logic 3: high quality resources are scarce and the incremental scale is limited. Projects with a single production capacity of more than 50000 tons are very scarce. In the next 2-3 years, most of the new projects are small-scale and can really disturb the supply increment: talison phase 3, Yabao wodgina2, phase 3, sqm expansion and Manono The spot supply of lithium concentrate is tight, which is basically sold in the form of underwriting, and only a small part is sold in the form of loose orders. []
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities: the lithium industry is still booming in 2022. At present, the valuation and investment cost performance of the lithium sector is high
The Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile industry made a good start. In January, the production and sales volume reached 452000 and 431000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and 1.4 times respectively, continuing the high growth trend of last year. Under the condition that the downstream terminal demand continues to be hot, the lithium resources in the upstream of the industrial chain maintain a high boom, and the price of lithium salt continues to rise, breaking through the 400000 yuan / ton mark. The world's leading lithium battery enterprises revealed that the shortage of lithium supply could not be solved in the short term, and the global lithium resource leader improved. The global lithium demand is expected to reach 1.5 million tons in 2025. LCE also alleviated the market's concern about the sustainability of the prosperity of the lithium industry to a certain extent.
According to the published forecast of 2021 annual report, the performance of leading enterprises in the lithium industry began to release significantly from 21q4. However, the prosperity of the lithium industry remained unchanged in 2022, and the lithium price remained strong and continued to rise, which made the performance of leading enterprises highly uncertain. Superimposed with the correction of the early stock price of the lithium sector, the current valuation and investment cost performance of the lithium sector is high. After the leading Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) stock price led to the overall stabilization of the lithium battery sector, The lithium sector supported by fundamentals and valuation may usher in a strong rebound. It is recommended to pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) , Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) , Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) . []
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) : under the background of the continuous high price of lithium ore, the economy of lithium battery recovery is prominent
The fundamental outlook continued. In January, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 431000, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4 times and a penetration rate of 17%. According to the China Automobile Association, in January 2022, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles was 431000, a year-on-year increase of 1.4 times, with a chain ratio of - 18.6% and a penetration rate of 17%. In terms of power batteries, the total loading volume in January was 16.2gwh, an increase of 86.9% and a decrease of 38.3% month on month, of which the loading volume of ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate were 7.3gwh and 8.9gwh respectively; The leading position of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is stable, with the power battery market accounting for 50.2%, followed by Byd Company Limited(002594) and AVIC lithium battery.
From the perspective of supply and demand of the industrial chain, the supply of negative pole graphitization, diaphragm, copper foil and iron phosphate in the middle reaches of lithium battery in 2022 is relatively tight, and the lithium battery industry chain maintains a high outlook. Attention: beiteri, Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) .
Under the background of high lithium ore prices, the economy of lithium battery recovery is prominent. Lithium battery recycling helps to make up for the supply gap of upstream resources, especially lithium resources. Lithium battery recycling has broad market space and development prospects. Attention: Bangpu cycle ( Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ), Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) , Guangdong Fangyuan Environment Co.Ltd(688148) , Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech Co.Ltd(002741) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Gem Co.Ltd(002340) , Wangneng Environment Co.Ltd(002034) , Zhefu Holding Group Co.Ltd(002266) , etc. []
Capital Securities: the good performance of new energy vehicle sales drives the demand for energy metals
The supply and demand pattern of lithium carbonate is still tight. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, in January 2022, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to maintain high-speed growth year-on-year, reaching 452000 and 431000 respectively. The good performance of new energy vehicle sales drives the demand for energy metals. After the Spring Festival, although manufacturers began to resume work one after another, the supply and demand of lithium is still in a tight balance. It is recommended to pay attention to Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) . []
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) : the rise of energy metals continues to pay attention to investment opportunities in the lithium industry
The progress of lithium resource supply in the upstream remains unchanged, and the manufacturers that stopped production before the festival gradually return to work, but the overall increment is limited. In terms of demand, the terminal new energy market maintains a high boom, and the market bullish sentiment remains unchanged. Under the tight supply and demand situation, the high lithium price is expected to maintain stable operation. It is suggested to focus on: the subject of cobalt industry integration layout Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) ; Leading enterprises with high self-sufficiency rate of lithium resources Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ; Related subjects of salt lake lithium: Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) ; Lithium mica related subject matter: Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Jiangdian special machine; Spodumene related subject matter: Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) .
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Minsheng Securities: strong demand, lithium supply and demand gap is still! The expansion of iron and lithium production continued to promote the rise of lithium price
The price of lithium and cobalt did not change, and the demand was hot. In January, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow at a high speed year-on-year. In January, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 431000, with a year-on-year increase of 136% and a month on month decrease of 19%. The good performance continued. The demand for energy metals was strong, the supply was still limited, and the tense pattern continued.
In terms of cobalt, the transportation congestion problem in South Africa is difficult to solve in the short term, the supply recovery is slow, and the demand is still strong. After the festival, lithium cobaltate enterprises began to purchase and replenish the stock, and the cobalt price continued to rise.
In terms of lithium, the maintenance of enterprises has been completed one after another, and the supply has rebounded. However, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is strong, the demand is strong, the gap between lithium supply and demand is still in, and the expansion of iron and lithium production continues to promote the rise of lithium price. Focus on: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) etc. []
Guosheng Securities: the spot market remains tight, and the price of cobalt lithium continues to reach a new high
The spot market remained tight, and the price of cobalt and lithium continued to reach a new high. (1) Lithium: in January, 452000 and 431000 new energy vehicles were produced and sold respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and 1.4 times respectively. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 17%, and the supply and demand pattern of new energy continued to improve;
(2) nickel: under the high cost loss and production reduction in the early stage, with the centralized procurement of large factories after the festival, the spot inventory of nickel sulfate continues to become tight after continuous consumption, and the price of nickel sulfate continues to rise. However, the current profit level is still difficult to stimulate the rapid recovery of the supply side. It is expected that the short-term spot will remain in short supply, and there is still room for the price to rise;
(3) cobalt: after the year, downstream enterprises have resumed production, and there is a strong demand for alloy and magnetic materials procurement. There is a continuous shortage of intermediate products in the upstream. Due to concerns about future inventory, the bullish sentiment in the downstream is becoming more and more obvious. In January, the production, marketing and installed capacity of new energy continued the high-speed development trend of last year. After the festival, the price of energy metals accelerated and continued to break new highs. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Zhefu Holding Group Co.Ltd(002266) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , Xiamen Tungsten Co.Ltd(600549) , Xtc New Energy Materials( Xiamen) Co.Ltd(688778) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) . []
The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) Securities: the supply of upstream resources has limited short-term capacity release, and lithium resources are expected to remain in shortage
According to the data of China automotive power battery alliance, in January 2022, China's battery output totaled 29.7gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 146.2% and a month on month decrease of 6.2%. In January 2022, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery loading volume totaled 16.2gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 86.9% and a month on month decrease of 38.3%. Meanwhile, according to the data of China Automobile Association, new energy vehicles continued to maintain high-speed growth. In January, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 452000 and 431000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 and 1.4 times, maintaining the momentum of high-speed development last year. The penetration rate of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles has reached 17%.
The short-term capacity release of upstream resource end supply is limited. China will usher in the upsurge of lithium resource expansion in 2022. Tianqi, Ganfeng, chuanneng and Yahua all have large-scale production expansion plans, but the actual production in 2022 is relatively limited. Lithium resources are expected to remain in short supply. Nickel stocks are still going out of stock. Lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, cobalt and nickel prices continued to rise. []
