Affected by the tense situation in Russia and Ukraine, the peripheral markets fluctuated violently again overnight, resulting in the low opening and low going of A-Shares today, and all major stock indexes fell by more than 1%.
On the disk, most sectors fell, oil, gold, nonferrous metals and coal sectors were relatively active, and COVID-19 drugs, Baijiu, Yuan universe, digital currency and other sectors fell first. The net outflow of funds from Beishang was 8.391 billion yuan.
rising risk aversion
yellow price hit an eight month high
Russia recognized the “people’s Republic of Donetsk” and the “people’s Republic of Lugansk”. The sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Russia exacerbated the already tense situation between Russia and Ukraine, resulting in a sharp rise in market risk aversion. The international gold price exceeded 1900 US dollars / ounce, a new high in more than eight months. This morning, the opening of the main contracts of Shanghai gold futures also increased sharply, up more than 1%, also reaching a new high since June 2021, and has risen by 5.37% since the Spring Festival.
Driven by the continued strength of the gold price, the A-share gold sector bucked the trend and opened higher. The sector index rose nearly 2% in the session, hitting a four-month high, and the half day transaction was close to the whole day transaction yesterday. Multiple stocks such as Chenzhou City Jingui Silver Industry Co.Ltd(002716) , Jinan High-Tech Development Co.Ltd(600807) , Shanghai Yimin Commercial Group Co.Ltd(600824) , Huaiji Dengyun Auto-Parts (Holding) Co.Ltd(002715) pulled the daily limit in a straight line.
Because we are optimistic about the future performance of gold, the position of SPDR, the world’s largest gold ETF, has been growing steadily recently. The current position reached 1024.09 tons, while on January 20, the position of this ETF was less than 1000 tons.
Goldman Sachs pointed out that the two most important drivers of gold are “fear” (the driver of investment demand) and “wealth” (the driver of purchasing power in emerging markets). Although the real interest rate in the United States is usually a barometer of panic, its signaling ability will fail in the later part of the economic cycle during monetary stimulus. On the contrary, in that case, the market’s assessment of the risk of recession would be a better indicator of panic. Based on the expectation of economic slowdown in the United States and the intensification of market concerns about economic recession, Goldman Sachs expects that the increased holdings of gold ETF will increase to 300 tons per year by the end of 2022. Meanwhile, the dollar denominated GDP of emerging markets is expected to grow by 10%, and Goldman Sachs believes that the price of gold will be $2150 / ounce in 12 months.
In addition to pushing up the price of gold, the tension between Russia and Ukraine also stimulated a sharp rise in international crude oil. Brent crude oil futures rose more than 2.5%, returning to $96 / barrel; WTI crude oil also rose more than 2.5% to US $92.5/barrel. The CEO of Vitol group, the world’s largest oil trader, said oil prices could continue to exceed $100 / barrel.
In early trading, the A-share oil sector also opened high against the trend, and the sector index rose by nearly 3% in the session. The half day transaction exceeded the full day transaction yesterday, Hunan Heshun Petroleum Co.Ltd(603353) , Xinjiang International Industry Co.Ltd(000159) , Xinjiang Beiken Energy Engineering Co.Ltd(002828) and other intraday trading limits were once touched, and the leading stock Petrochina Company Limited(601857) also rose by nearly 4%.
paper industry raises price tide again
After the Spring Festival, international accidents occurred frequently, the pulp supply entered the tight expectation, and the price soared again. Recently Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) announced that it would increase the price of coated and non coated products by 300 yuan / ton on the basis of the current policy price from March 1. It is reported that the company has issued a notice of product price increase for two consecutive weeks. The company issued a notice of price increase of household paper four days ago, with a price increase of 200 / ton.
Last week, Dongguan Nine Dragons Paper also announced price increases, including the price of white faced Kraft linerboard and coated kraft linerboard increased by 50 yuan / ton. Shanying, Liwen paper, Dongguan Jianhui, Jiangmen star, Jintian paper, Tianhe paper and other paper mills also successively issued price increase notices, with an increase of 50-500 yuan / ton.
In the morning, the paper sector once bucked the trend and hit a new high in the past month. The opening limit of Mcc Meili Cloud Computing Industry Investment Co.Ltd(000815) has been the third straight one word board, and the stock price has reached a new high in two years. Mcc Meili Cloud Computing Industry Investment Co.Ltd(000815) mainly produces and sells medium and high-grade cultural paper, kraft liner paper and high-strength corrugated paper. Hangzhou Coco Healthcare Products Co.Ltd(301009) , Hangzhou Haoyue Personal Care Co.Ltd(605009) , Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) also rose against the trend.
According to statistics, since November 2021, China’s pulp ports have continued to go to the warehouse. In January 2022, the pulp port inventory fell to a new low of nearly four years. From February, although the weekly mainstream port inventory increased month on month, the data showed that the new inventory was all sold orders. After the Spring Festival, the operating rate of the paper industry was generally low. As of the end of last week, the operating rate of whiteboard paper was 55.11%, 10.18 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year. The operating rates of white cardboard, double offset paper, double copper paper and household paper were all at a historically low level.
The international supply side has also suffered from accidents recently. Affected by the strike of Finnish paper workers, upm2100000 ton broad-leaved pulp plant was postponed to the end of March 2023. On February 17, due to many problems such as poor logistics and transportation, the inventory of the pulp mill is close to the peak. Taylor pulp mill in BC Province, Canada will reduce the output in the next six weeks, so as to reduce the inventory pressure. It is expected that the output will be reduced by more than 25000 tons, accounting for more than 10% of the annual capacity of the pulp mill. Previously, the pulp plant had been shut down for 4 weeks due to the flood, and the risk of international supply side increased.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that the recent rise in China’s wood pulp prices caused by the shutdown and maintenance of overseas pulp plants and the shortage of shipping will not be alleviated in the short term, and the cost side has the power to promote the rise of paper prices. At the same time, overseas paper prices will not fall rapidly in the short term, and China’s paper export growth can continue to be maintained. Under the background of reduced imports and increased exports, the paper supply in the Chinese market will be relatively reduced, and the paper mills can more easily promote the steady increase of paper prices.
