Eight pictures a day: the situation in Russia and Ukraine is not clear! How much worry do A-Shares have now? The organization shouted “build confidence”!

The international situation suddenly changed and the global market performed poorly. Today (February 22), A-Shares were not spared. Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board. After opening, they gradually fluctuated and fell, diving once in the session; In the afternoon, the market continued to slump, the index remained low, weak and volatile, and the overall performance was relatively low.

As of the day’s closing of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, the Shanghai index fell 0.96% to 3457.15 points; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.29% to 13297.11 points; The gem index fell 1.38% to 2765.91.

From the disk point of view, the industry and concept sectors fell more or rose less, and the local profit-making effect plummeted. In terms of industry, precious metals, energy metals, gas and oil rose against the market; In terms of theme stocks, the cultivation of diamonds, the concept of civil explosion, the lithium extraction from Salt Lake, the calculation from the east to the west, the concept of gold and other sectors showed relatively resistance to decline.

In terms of funds, the central bank announced on February 22 that in order to hedge the impact of factors such as the peak of the tax period and maintain stable liquidity at the end of the month, the people’s Bank of China carried out RMB 100 billion reverse repurchase operation by means of interest rate bidding on February 22, 2022, and the bid winning interest rate was 2.10%. As 10 billion yuan of reverse repo expired today, the people’s Bank of China realized a net investment of 90 billion yuan.

hot sector

Top 10 of industry sector increase

Top 10 of industry sector decrease

Top 10 of concept sector increase

Top 10 of concept sector decrease

individual stock monitoring

Top 10 net inflow of main force

Top 10 net outflow of main force

northbound funds

southbound funds

message plane

1. According to the interface news, the Russian central bank said on Tuesday that it was ready to take all necessary measures to support financial stability. The Central Bank of Russia said in a statement on its website that in order to adapt the financial sector to the increased volatility, the Central Bank of Russia allowed financial institutions to calculate mandatory ratios using the foreign exchange rate on February 18, and also allowed financial institutions to report the value of stocks and bonds at the price on February 18. Both measures will last until October 1. In addition, the Russian central bank is ready to take additional measures.

2. According to the Shanghai Securities News, the State Council recently issued the national plan for the development of the cause of aging and the elderly care service system in the 14th five year plan. The plan mentioned that the overall requirements, main objectives and work tasks during the 14th Five Year Plan period were defined around promoting the coordinated development of aging undertakings and industries and promoting the high-quality development of the elderly care service system.

3. According to the securities times, the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration issued the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan. The scheme is proposed to promote diversified technology development. Carry out research on key core technologies, equipment and integrated optimization design of sodium ion batteries, new lithium-ion batteries, lead-carbon batteries, liquid flow batteries, compressed air, hydrogen (ammonia) energy storage, hot (cold) energy storage, focus on energy storage technologies such as superconductivity and supercapacitor, and develop and reserve liquid metal batteries, solid-state lithium-ion batteries Metal air battery and other new generation high energy density energy storage technologies. Break through the whole process safety technology. Break through key technologies such as battery intrinsic safety control, safety early warning of electrochemical energy storage system, multi-level protection structure and key materials of the system, efficient fire extinguishing and anti reburning, and overall safety design of energy storage power station, so as to support the safe operation of large-scale energy storage power station.

4. According to the news client of China Central Television, in order to clean up and rectify the activities of selling e-cigarettes to minors according to law, severely crack down on crimes involving e-cigarettes, and effectively protect the physical and mental health of minors, recently, the Ministry of public security, the state tobacco monopoly administration, the State Administration of market supervision The Ministry of Education jointly issued the special work plan for cleaning up and rectifying the sale of e-cigarettes to minors and severely cracking down on crimes involving e-cigarettes, which is scheduled to carry out special cleaning up and rectification from now to the end of April.

institutional perspective

For the current market, Huaxin securities mentioned that affected by the news of the escalation of the situation in Ukraine, the global financial market shook again. We believe that the fluctuation of the peripheral market may disturb the A-share market, but even the decline is only the second bottom of the market. Overall, for the current A-share market, we should be optimistic.

Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) said that the current negative factors are mainly that the situation in Russia and Ukraine is not clear, the US dollar interest rate hike is imminent, and China’s economy has yet to recover. However, the stable trend of foreign capital entering the market remains unchanged, and China’s monetary policy is expected to remain relatively independent. The recent release of social finance, export and other data may reflect that the economic fundamentals are not as pessimistic as previously judged by the market. Therefore, the range of policy easing may produce some “expectation difference”, which will cause certain fluctuations in asset prices in the short term. The relatively strong sectors such as steel and building materials under the expectation of “stable growth” after the year may be adjusted, but the duration should be relatively limited. It is suggested to be patient with the sectors and individual stocks with strong valuation repair logic. In addition, the more popular concept stocks such as East number and West calculation in the near future need to be discriminated and handled with caution.

Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) pointed out that at present, although A-Shares face two core contradictions: the faster pace of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve and the realization effect of China’s steady growth, in the medium and long term, A-Shares are in the stage of strategic layout. First of all, after nearly two months of release of market sentiment, the risk of A-Shares has basically been fully released, and the current overall valuation of A-Shares is also relatively reasonable. Secondly, the accelerated implementation of countercyclical regulatory policies in real estate, consumption, infrastructure investment and other aspects will help China’s growth gradually stabilize. Moreover, according to the forecast of the annual report of the enterprise, the high boom technology manufacturing industry still has high profitability, and the growth sector with significant adjustment in the early stage also shows signs of rebound after oversold. Overall, the main line of stable growth may perform slightly better in the short term, but after the subsequent economic stabilization is realized, growth stocks may return to the main line.

Guoyuan Securities Company Limited(000728) believes that there are “particularity” in the economic environment. We build confidence, tend to be verified, think more and do less. Since the beginning of the year, the market is weak, the risk appetite is low, and the relative returns of infrastructure and financial sectors under the influence of defensive strategies, undervaluation and steady growth policies are slightly ahead. Based on the current situation, we believe that some uncertainties outside China are clearing out, and A-Shares are expected to stabilize, Confidence should be built gradually, but the investment logic should be verified by economic data and policy signals before making a choice.

In terms of operation, the organization further analyzed that there are the following logical possibilities for reference only: (1) (Policy) new and old infrastructure and real estate industry chain are the most profitable; (2) (wide credit) the growth style is better, followed by consumption. At the same time, the improvement of beneficial liquidity is still the undervalued effect under the wandering market. Finance and real estate are also one of the good choices in asset allocation; (3) (post epidemic consumption repair) in the post epidemic era, on the premise that the global epidemic is gradually alleviated and the prevention and control restrictions are relatively weakened, there may be opportunities for profit recovery and gradual recovery of capital market performance in the service consumption industry “damaged” by the epidemic; (4) (long inflation) capital expenditure rose sharply + the price of upstream resource products rose, the investment value of resource raw materials still exists, and the demand driven by infrastructure development under steady growth is worthy of attention.

China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) securities also mentioned the balanced allocation: first, the rising logic remains unchanged, and there are meta universe, digital economy, new energy, electronics, etc. with rebound and repair power. Second, there is a strong certainty of profitability, and commodity prices form non-ferrous, chemical, coal and other sectors supported. Third, large finance, large infrastructure and other sectors with valuation and repair power and both offensive and defensive are allocated in a balanced manner.

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