The conflict between Russia and Ukraine caused global market turmoil, and A-Shares were also dragged down today (February 22). Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board, then fell rapidly and walked out of the pulse downward pattern. In the afternoon, the stock index continued its decline, showing a weak shock all day, and individual stocks showed a general decline pattern. From the disk point of view, the gold and oil and gas sectors failed to protect the market, and the concept of "counting from the east to the west" which has soared recently has been divided. In addition, there is a mysterious force rising quietly. The concept of civil explosion, the cultivation of diamonds, the extraction of lithium from salt lakes and other sectors are more resistant to decline.
In this regard, Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) pointed out that the current negative factors are mainly that the situation in Russia and Ukraine is not clear, the US dollar interest rate hike is imminent, and China's economy has yet to recover. However, the stable trend of foreign capital entering the market remains unchanged, and China's monetary policy is expected to remain relatively independent. The recent release of social finance, export and other data may reflect that the economic fundamentals are not as pessimistic as previously judged by the market.
At the same time, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) also said that the short-term market adjustment does not change the market fundamentals. Combined with the recent introduction of detailed rules for local steady growth policies, after some forward-looking economic indicators gradually improve, the market may reverse the downturn and gradually turn to positive.
sector:
I. concept of civil explosion
Wanlian Securities pointed out that during the "14th five year plan" period, the state's management measures for industrial detonators were upgraded again. The Ministry of industry and information technology indicated in the "14th five year plan" for the safety development of civil explosives Industry issued in November 2021 that during the "14th five year plan" period, industrial digital electronic detonators will be fully promoted, except that a small amount of production capacity will be reserved for export or other permitted special purposes, Stop production before the end of June 2022 and stop selling industrial detonators other than industrial digital electronic detonators before the end of August 2022. This means that the replacement tide of digital electronic detonators has officially arrived.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) mentioned that various policies promote the upgrading of Intelligent Manufacturing in civil explosive industry. Manufacturers of civil explosives need to obtain the production license of Civil Explosives for production and operation, and the license renewal cycle is only three years. The renewal of industrial equipment is highly sensitive to policies. In recent years, the state has successively launched a series of industrial policies and guidance, put forward and repeatedly emphasized that the production of civil explosive industry should develop in the direction of less (no) humanization, automation and intelligence. The "14th five year plan" of the civil explosive industry further emphasizes the less (no) humanization, automation and intelligence of the production of the civil explosive industry. It is expected that the civil explosive equipment manufacturers will fully benefit from the equipment renewal demand in the industry.
The agency further analyzed that driven by various policies, the prosperity of the civil explosive industry is expected to continue to improve, and the competition pattern is expected to continue to optimize. It is suggested to pay attention to the relevant key companies in the civil explosive industry chain: Poly Union Chemical Holding Group Co.Ltd(002037) , Shanxi Huhua Group Co.Ltd(003002) , Jiangxi Guotai Group Co.Ltd(603977) , Guangdong Hongda, Hunan Nanling Industry Explosive Material Co.Ltd(002096) , Shenzhen King Explorer Science And Technology Corporation(002917) , Hubei Kailong Chemical Group Co.Ltd(002783) , Tibet Gaozheng Explosive Co.Ltd(002827) , Shanxi Tond Chemical Co.Ltd(002360) .
II. Natural gas
Minsheng Securities said that the supply and demand of the global crude oil market will maintain a tight balance in 2022: (1) supply side: the idle capacity is limited, and the supply increment is less than expected. (2) Demand side: the impact of the epidemic has been effectively controlled, and the demand is expected to exceed the pre epidemic level. According to OPEC's monthly report in January 2022, the global demand for crude oil is expected to reach 100.79 million barrels / day in 2022, exceeding the demand of 100.10 million barrels in 2019. To sum up, we believe that in 2022, the fundamentals of global crude oil supply and demand are expected to continue to maintain a tight balance, which will continue to drive the upward fluctuation of crude oil prices.
The agency further analyzed that the crude oil price may continue to fluctuate upward in 2022 and remain at a medium high level throughout the year. Therefore, we suggest paying attention to the upstream crude oil mining industry whose profitability benefits from the rise of crude oil and the oil service industry which benefits from the increase of capital expenditure under high oil prices. We suggest paying attention to Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) and Zhongman Petroleum And Natural Gas Group Corp.Ltd(603619) with new crude oil mining and sales business.
In addition, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) pointed out that we expect the global crude oil supply and demand pattern to remain tight in 2022, so we continue to be firmly optimistic about the prosperity of the petrochemical sector. The tight pattern of crude oil supply and demand fundamentals continues, and the geopolitical situation is changeable, which has brought great uncertainty to the short-term crude oil supply. We believe that the global crude oil supply and demand pattern will remain tight in 2022, continue to be firmly optimistic about the prosperity of the petrochemical sector and the upstream oil and gas enterprises represented by Petrochina Company Limited(601857) . In the follow-up, we will focus on the implementation of OPEC + production increase, the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, the progress of the negotiation of the Iranian nuclear agreement, the spread of Omikron strain, the progress of vaccination and the development of covid-19 specific drugs.
In terms of investment suggestions, it is expected that the global crude oil supply and demand pattern will remain tight in 2022. Therefore, we continue to be firmly optimistic about the prosperity of the petrochemical sector. It is suggested to pay attention to the following subscripts: first, the upstream sector, PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) ; Second, oil service sector, China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) , Offshore Oil Engineering Co.Ltd(600583) , Cnooc Energy Technology & Services Limited(600968) , Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation(600871) , Bomesc Offshore Engineering Company Limited(603727) ; Third, large private refining and chemical sector, Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) ; Fourth, light hydrocarbon cracking sector, satellite chemistry and Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) ; Fifth, coal to olefins, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) ; The sixth and third largest chemical white horse, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) and Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) .
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