Today (February 22), the three major indexes were in a collective downturn. There were less than 900 stocks rising in the two cities, and the sectors also fell in a large area. The salt lake lithium extraction sector bucked the market and strengthened. As of the closing, the sector index rose by more than 2%. In terms of individual stocks, Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) rose by more than 8%, and Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Bgt Group Co.Ltd(300774) rose by more than 8%, with Sunresin New Materials Co.Ltd Xi’An(300487) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Tibet Urban Development And Investment Co.Ltd(600773) and other stocks rising first.
the lithium salt leader rose by the limit, and the tight supply and demand pushed up the lithium price
Yesterday, Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) disclosed the 2021 annual performance express, and its net profit attributable to the parent company was 925 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 185.5%. At the same time, the company also released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase by 1053.67% to 1438.22% year-on-year. According to the report, the substantial growth of performance is mainly due to the growth of civil explosion and lithium salt business. Among them, the demand of lithium industry continues to rise, the price of lithium salt products continues to rise, the company releases production capacity and increases sales, the sales volume of lithium salt products gradually increases, and the business profit increases significantly.
Boosted by the news, Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) opened today (February 22). The previous research report of Minsheng Securities pointed out that the layout of lithium resources of the company is progressing smoothly, and several equity participation projects are expected to be put into operation in 2022. The existing lithium resource supply channels can meet the needs of lithium salt production in 2022. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 983 million, RMB 1894 million and RMB 2378 million respectively. Based on the closing price on January 13, 2022, the corresponding PE will be 26x, 14x and 11x respectively. It will be covered for the first time and the company will be rated as “prudent recommendation”.
The leading performance of lithium salt has greatly exceeded expectations, showing that the prosperity of the lithium resource industry continues to be strong. At present, the price of lithium is still advancing by leaps and bounds. According to the data of Shanghai Iron and steel, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate has exceeded 460000 yuan / ton. Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) pointed out that basically, the short-term lithium supply and demand continues to be tight, the lithium price may remain strong, and the concentrate end is more certain. Although the Ministry of industry and information technology recently proposed to continue to accelerate the development of China’s lithium resources, the increase of lithium supply will not occur within one year (more affecting the long-term supply expectation). It is expected that the spot price of lithium is still easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term.
the net profit of lithium enterprises continues to increase, and the valuation space is expected to be revised
With the rapid development of new energy vehicles and energy storage industry, the downstream demand for lithium salt has increased strongly. Under the background of the continuous strengthening of lithium price, lithium resource enterprises have collectively benefited. Judging from the performance forecast of 2021 that has been released so far, listed companies are generally optimistic. Among them, Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) is expected to have a year-on-year increase of more than 20 times, the performance of Zangger mining is expected to exceed 5 times, and the performance of Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) is expected to exceed 2 times.
The performance of lithium resource stocks was fulfilled as scheduled, and the market also paid attention to the continuation of industry profits. According to China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) securities, from the forecast of the published annual report of 2021, the performance of leading enterprises in the lithium industry began to release significantly from the fourth quarter of 2021. However, in 2022, the prosperity of the lithium industry remained unchanged, and the lithium price remained strong and continued to rise, which made the performance of leading enterprises highly uncertain . Combined with the correction of the early stock price of the lithium sector, the valuation and investment cost performance of the lithium sector is high, After the leading Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) share price drives the overall stabilization of the lithium battery sector, the lithium sector supported by fundamentals and valuation may usher in a strong rebound.
For the current sector logic, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities pointed out that the rigid supply shortage caused by the rapid development of industry demand is reflected in the lithium price’s continuous record high, the long-term sustainability of the price in the upward fluctuation of high price, and the downward extension of high price, returns to the high profit growth and long-term of lithium company, In order to reverse the industry’s general understanding of lithium “traditional cyclical products”, so that the market can repair and give higher valuation space to the sector .
In terms of the core targets of the lithium industry, Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) believes that the gap between the deterministic supply and demand of lithium mines in 22 and 23 years, and the great difficulty of significantly alleviating it in 24 and 25 years. The sustainability of this round of supply and demand mismatch will exceed expectations, and continue to be optimistic about the investment opportunities in the lithium sector. Focus on the idea of “performance + growth”. Focus on companies with resources, processing capacity and growth in the future, such as leading Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng lithium , elastic targets Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) .
