The trend of the three major A-share indexes is divided today. Among them, the Shanghai index closed almost flat at 3490.61 points; The Shenzhen composite index closed up slightly by 0.09% to close at 13471.16 points; The gem index fell 0.79% to close at 2804.60. The market turnover reached 900.4 billion yuan, and more than 3400 stocks rose. Most of the industry sectors closed up, and the concept stocks of East number and West calculation blowout again, with education, traditional Chinese medicine and coal industries among the top gainers.
Today’s news:
1. China Securities Regulatory Commission: support the head securities companies to become bigger and stronger
2. “Super project” stimulates investment enthusiasm and institutions focus on the main line of digital infrastructure
3. Bureau of Statistics: in January, the month on month decline in the sales price of commercial housing weakened, and the year-on-year increase generally fell
4. Is the vaccine stock making a comeback? China launches “mixed play” to strengthen the planning of the fourth needle for securities companies in the United States
5. LPR quotation released in February: both 1-year and 5-year periods remain unchanged
6. The number of new investors in A-Shares dropped by 37%, a six-year high! Here comes the reverse indicator? Organization: three bottoms have been confirmed
7. Tesla 4680 battery has entered the stage of mass production. Layout of multiple companies (with shares)
8. Hang Seng, FTSE Russell and MSCI adjusted the flagship index, and these stocks were newly accepted
9. Heavy! Trillion level industries will benefit the “14th five year plan” for the development of new energy storage
10. The mortgage interest rate will drop again! The four major banks will simultaneously reduce the housing loan interest rate in Guangzhou
For the future market trend, institutions have expressed their views.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the steady growth policy has been comprehensively overweight, and the service industry rescue has supplemented the “short board”. The overweight of the policy has promoted the spread of the market, and the concentrated position reduction and position adjustment of investors are coming to an end. The “three bottoms” have been confirmed in turn, adhering to the main line of the steady growth market and actively layout. First of all, the coverage of the recent steady growth policy has been expanding. The upgrading of the manufacturing industry and new infrastructure have helped to make steady progress in investment. The rescue measures for the service industry have accurately pointed to the short board of consumption. The continuous refinement of policies in the future is expected to promote the faster stabilization of consumption. Secondly, the main line of steady growth in the early stage is more focused on traditional industries that underestimate the value. After the policy diffusion, it is expected that the main line of steady growth will be more diversified, and the value and growth style in the main line of steady growth will be more balanced. Finally, in the second week after the festival, the market liquidity pressure has been relieved rapidly, the concentrated position reduction and position adjustment of investors are nearing the end, the peak of overseas disturbance factors has passed, the attraction of RMB assets has been further improved, and the policy bottom, market bottom and sentiment bottom have been confirmed in turn. It is suggested to stick to the main line of steady growth and actively layout high-quality blue chips around the “two low positions”.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities believes that “steady growth” has been the focus of the market since the central economic work conference at the end of 2021. The inflection point of global liquidity has emerged, and the asynchronous window period of China US monetary policy is narrowing, which makes the valuation side do not have a comprehensive basis for raising, so we should focus on the direction of valuation repair. Starting from DDM model, we should pay attention to molecular profit reversal or marginal improvement. At present, the undervalued sector with consumption and infrastructure chain as the core has the above advantages, and the “steady growth” market is still on the way. On the whole, the current market is low, the risk appetite and the economic fundamentals have not yet been fulfilled, and the value will still dominate at this stage. The opportunity to grow, especially for track companies, still needs to wait for the recovery of risk appetite. Water flows to the lower place. According to the order of steady growth and the marginal improvement degree of profit, recommendations: 1) infrastructure: coal / steel / transportation / construction / chemical industry – infrastructure real estate / mechanical equipment; 2) Consumption: agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (pigs) / household appliances / consumer services; 3) Securities companies: banks; 4) Consumer electronics.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) indicates that “steady growth” is approaching the time point of the two sessions, and external risks still need to be paid attention to. We have once again observed the introduction of the “steady growth” policy. The national standing committee meeting held on February 14 confirmed the measures to promote steady industrial growth and rescue the service industry, and the three major documents on steady growth were issued in the following days. Many real estate policies have also shown signs of relaxation. “Steady growth” ushered in a number of favorable policies, but it is also gradually approaching the time point of the two sessions. External risks still need attention. We believe that the Federal Reserve has a high probability of starting a continuous interest rate increase cycle after March. Compared with 2015, it is more similar to 1994. The yield of 10Y US bonds may not peak and fall after March. The pressure of subsequent inflation and interest rate increase is still large. Pay close attention to the trend of RMB exchange rate. Meanwhile, the increasingly tense situation in Ukraine may also have a new impact on global risky assets. At present, the spring breeze of digital economic policy is blowing vigorously, and the direction of digital infrastructure represented by data center, Gigabit home entry, communication base station and industrial Internet is expected to usher in fundamental improvement. In the direction, suppliers providing data center planning, construction and data center supporting facilities, such as refrigeration, power supply and power generation, are expected to benefit the most. Secondly, optical communication suppliers and green energy guarantee suppliers also benefited significantly.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said that the adjustment background and incentives since December 21 are similar to the adjustment of 21q1, and the disk indicators show that the adjustment has been more sufficient. Learning from history, the catalyst from value to growth of this round of spring market may come from the policy and the performance forecast of the first quarterly report. This year is similar to 2012. It is a shock city. The best window period in the first half of the year is the steady growth spring market. Short term finance and real estate are dominant. It is expected to switch to new energy and digital economy of new infrastructure in the future.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) said that the “good start” of the year of the tiger is expected to continue. At present, steady growth is still better. The logic of recovery after the epidemic continues to deduce, but the winning rate of growth is also improving. In 22 years, under the background of declining profits and rising US debt Center, the low peg strategy will prevail. Changes in the three major factors continued to support the A-share after the festival. In the medium term, A-Shares still face the test of two core contradictions: the Fed’s faster pace of interest rate hike + table contraction, and the realization effect of China’s steady growth. US bond interest rate affects growth style, and steady growth affects value style. We expect that the steady growth policy will still be intensively verified between the current and the two sessions, but the winning rate of PEG growth is gradually improving at the right side of the social finance inflection point T3.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that the market has continued to adjust since the beginning of the year, and the current repair window has arrived: on the one hand, popular tracks such as “new semi army” have been in the bottom area, and gradually started to rebound. Since the beginning of the year, the growth track of high prosperity and hard technology has been greatly adjusted. On the one hand, the Fed’s concern about raising interest rates or even shrinking the table has heated up, US bond interest rates have risen sharply, and US stocks, especially technology stocks, have fallen sharply, which has continued to drag down China’s risk appetite. At present, the market panic about the Fed’s interest rate hike has eased. The recent 50bp interest rate hike in March is expected to fall sharply, and the US bond interest rate will rise and fall, which will also weaken the impact on China. On the other hand, the high degree of institutional crowding and poor market microstructure in China have also led to the economic growth, especially the track adjustment. However, at present, the congestion of the “new half army” has dropped to a low level, and the valuation cost performance has also improved significantly. Among them, the leading stocks took the lead in stabilizing and recovering, which is the leading signal for the “new semi army” to return to rising. At present, the comparison trend between new energy and semiconductor leaders and non leaders has been in the recovery stage, and the characteristics of the bottom of the sector appear. In addition, some investors are worried about the deterioration of the long-term prosperity of the “new semi army”, but at present, whether it is new energy, semiconductor or military industry, its predicted net profit growth in 2022 is still more than 40%, and the high prosperity trend remains unchanged.
On the other hand, “steady growth” is not to the right, and “mini version 2014” will continue to perform. Since the end of last year, we have put the “steady growth” sector in the first place, and the relative income has been significant so far. Recently, many investors are worried that “steady growth” has entered the right side, and the sector has also fluctuated. However, referring to the experience of the past five rounds of “steady growth”, the market’s expectation of policy relaxation has never been achieved overnight, but a process from “expected warming” to “skepticism” and then to “final belief”, from quantitative change to qualitative change.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that in the medium and long term, A-Shares are in the stage of strategic layout. At present, A-Shares repeatedly shake and grind the bottom, bringing layout opportunities. First, after nearly two months of release of market sentiment, the risk of A-Shares has been fully released. At present, the overall valuation of A-Shares is reasonable, and the valuation cost performance of some industries has also improved; Second, at present, China is in the transmission period from broad currency to broad credit. The accelerated implementation of countercyclical control policies in real estate, consumption and infrastructure investment will help China’s growth stabilize gradually; Third, from the forecast of the annual report of the enterprise, the high boom technology manufacturing industry still has high profitability, and the growth sector that has been greatly adjusted in the early stage also shows signs of rebound after oversold. In terms of allocation, attention should be paid to two main investment lines: first, the allocation of varieties of “stable growth” in policies, such as “banking, real estate, building materials and construction”; Second, “food and beverage, breeding, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) ” and so on.
Guosheng Securities believes that in the past three months, steady growth has been the most clear main line, and relevant sectors have been generally repaired. From infrastructure, real estate to finance, they have performed well in the past period of time; On the other hand, the decline of high boom track generally reached 20%. After nearly three months of return, the current round of value / growth ratio has already broken through the post epidemic channel, and the strength and sustainability of the recovery are higher than those in the previous rounds. From the perspective of index price comparison, the value growth ratio has been close to the center in the past 10 years, and there is still about 15% space from the center in the past 5 years. After a round of overall repair, we believe that the internal order of steady growth in the next stage is: infrastructure chain > real estate developers > banks > post real estate cycle. 1) Whether it is the actual tendency of short-term policies or the demand for high-quality development in the medium and long term, new and old infrastructure is the biggest focus of steady growth policies, and the infrastructure chain has the highest certainty; 2) At present, the overall upward driving force of real estate is slightly insufficient, and the front-end sales are depressed. However, with the reduction of the first mortgage interest rate and the down payment ratio in many places, the loose expectation of real estate continues to rise; 3) Banks are expected to track the credit volume and the improvement of credit risk and continue to repair, but the outlook of the manufacturing industry is still low, and the short-term weakness of the real economy may put some pressure on the valuation of bank stocks; 4) Under the guarantee of delivery and risk prevention, the completion boom this year is expected to be maintained, and the post cycle sector follows the change of real estate stocks. Overall, with steady growth gradually moving towards the cash stage, the internal ranking rate of the sector in the second half of the first quarter is: infrastructure chain > real estate developers > banks > post real estate cycle.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) said that at the macroeconomic level, the current market uncertainty mainly comes from overseas. First, the statement in the minutes of the US FOMC meeting is relatively pigeon to the previous expectations of the market, driving the adjustment of global asset prices. However, the probability of the improvement of the US inflation data in the short term is small, and the interest rate increase process of the Federal Reserve may still have an impact on the assets at a high level, Passive foam extrusion; Second, Russia and Ukraine have repeatedly fermented the global conflict; Third, the UK and the European Central Bank continuously released the partial Eagle signal, breaking the previous market expectations. On the whole, the recovery of overseas liquidity is still a definite event, and the overall rhythm is tight before and loose after. We must focus on the marginal changes in the global financial environment, especially in emerging market countries. The probability of the full outbreak of geopolitical risks is limited, but the repeated fermentation on the news may continue to impact the global market sentiment. The certainty of China is relatively strong. Under the background of the marginal slowdown of inflation pressure, China is still expected to maintain a better liquidity environment in the first and second quarters, and it is expected to cut interest rates in the first half of the year. The overweight of structural monetary policy is expected to drive the concepts of digital economy, expanding domestic demand and dual control of energy consumption. At present, the volume of the A-share market is slightly insufficient and the style is not clear. The impact of the news on the performance of the sector is more obvious and frequent. We believe that this is mainly because investors have great differences in their judgment on the future market trend. In the context of the continuous rise of overseas uncertainty risks, China’s continued easing and steady growth and hedging against the downward pressure of the economy, we suggest paying attention to the regression of the epidemic disturbance and some undervalued sectors expected to be repaired in the adjustment of steady growth in the short term, and focusing on the value blue chips with better defense ability in the downward economic environment.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) indicates that the rebound window of growth stocks may be from late March to April. The reasons are as follows: first, from a macro perspective, April is the marginal mitigation window of the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates; Second, from a meso perspective, the successive disclosure of the first quarter forecast in 2022 is expected to boost market sentiment. From a macro perspective, April is the marginal mitigation window of the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates. Looking back on the adjustment of the gem since mid December, we believe that the main disturbing factors are the denominator, that is, the rise of US bond yields and the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Looking forward to the follow-up, the first half of the year is the observation dimension, and April is the marginal mitigation window of the Fed’s interest rate decision. Meanwhile, the risk of A-share growth stocks has been released since mid December. With the implementation of the Fed’s interest rate resolution in March, it is expected to usher in the stage of repair of risk appetite in April. It is worth noting that, different from 2019 to 2021, taking 2-3 quarters as the observation dimension, we believe that the “three low” configuration in 2022 still has a comparative advantage. For the “three low” sectors with undervalued value, low share price and low position, we investigated the marginal changes of fundamentals from top to bottom, and sorted out the allocation clues of stable growth, travel chain and high dividend. Combined with the industry view, the relevant companies include: stable growth: Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ; Travel chain: Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Air China Limited(601111) , China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) etc; High Dividend: Daqin Railway Co.Ltd(601006) , Shandong Hi-Speed Company Limited(600350) , China Merchants Expressway Network Technology Holdings Co.Ltd(001965) , China Mobile, China United Network Communications Limited(600050) etc.
