The prosperity of export sales is strong and tends to be stable on the whole. In 2021q4, the growth rate of core household appliance shipments in Western Europe, Eastern Europe and the United States is - 9%, + 1% and 0% respectively. The prosperity is not far from Q3; From the perspective of China's export, the conclusion is similar. Under the customs caliber, the export volume of Q3 and Q4 household appliances is - 1% and - 2% year-on-year in RMB and + 8% and + 4% year-on-year in US dollars; Q4's exports of air conditioners, refrigerators and washing machines were + 8%, - 10% and - 13% year-on-year, slightly better than Q3.
Taken together, the industry data can confirm that: first, with the recovery of the base and the weakening of macro stimulus, the demand for overseas household appliances has dropped centrally; Second, the decline mainly occurred in 2021q3, which did not deteriorate further. From the feedback of enterprises, the demand in North America is still strong, and the supply chain limits the release of quantity, but increases the marginal contribution of price. Therefore, combined with Q4 industry data, overseas leading business performance and its expectation for 2022, we believe that export sales are resilient and there is little possibility of further deterioration. It is pertinent to make a linear expectation based on the second half of 2021, and pay attention to the possibility of exceeding the expected period caused by the optimization of supply chain and exchange rate environment.
Q4 of overseas leader -- a quarter of operation exceeding expectations
With the weakening of the base effect, Q3 began to significantly reduce the growth rate of overseas home appliances, and the pressure on gross profit margin gradually appeared. Although many companies revised the annual expectation based on the results of Q3, most of the corresponding Q4 growth rate was slower than or only flat with Q3, that is to say, overseas was also expecting a less optimistic Q4, but the actual operation exceeded the expectation again. The revenue growth of major overseas companies in 2021q4 is faster than or equal to Q3, Daikin, carrier, Trane and AO Smith, LG (H & A) and Samsung exceed 10%; The main reason for exceeding the expectation lies in the price. The contribution of the sales side is still limited. Behind it is not the weak demand, but the supply chain problem that limits the release of quantity and helps to increase the price together with the cost of raw materials; Overall, the demand in North America is still good, followed by Europe and Japan. Of course, the price increase is still difficult to hedge the significant rise of costs and freight. Most of the profit pressure of overseas companies in Q4 is greater than that in Q3. The good news is based on the current industry expectation. The second half of 2021 is basically the stage with the greatest pressure on the profit of overseas household appliances.
Expectation for 2022 - considerable growth and profit recovery
After the 2021q4 financial report, major companies have disclosed their business expectations / guidelines for 2022, and are generally optimistic about the main business growth and profit performance. Take whirlpool, the leader of consumer electronics in North America, which has developed relatively steadily in recent years, as an example. Its main business guidelines in the first two years of the epidemic were + 3%, and increased to + 5% ~ + 6% in 2022; HVACR manufacturers such as carrier, JCI, Trane, etc. increased the speed of receiving orders in Q4 in 2021. At the same time, the number of orders on hand also hit a record high; Of course, behind the considerable growth, price will still be an important driver. It is expected that the company's profitability will be relatively negative in the first half of 2022 and the second half of 2022, but it is expected that the cost of raw materials will still have a significant negative impact on the company's profitability in the first half of 2022; Most leaders expect that the profitability of 2022 will be flat or slightly improved year-on-year. The price increase and product structure optimization in the dimension of the whole year can hedge the negative impact of raw materials and supply chain.
Maintain the "optimistic" rating of the industry
The "anchor" expected at the beginning of the year is relatively scarce. We systematically combed the operation of 2021q4, the main overseas consumer appliance & HVACR leader, and the guidelines for 2022. The conclusion is: in the second half of 2021, the apparent growth rate of overseas leaders fell, but continued to be better than expected, and the profit pressure increased; In 2022, the main business growth of major companies is expected to be optimistic. At the same time, it is believed that the raw materials and supply chain are still a drag at the beginning of 2022, but it will improve in the second half of the year, and the annual profit will stabilize or recover. Based on this, we believe that export should not make too many pessimistic assumptions, or similar to the second half of 2021. Maintain the "optimistic" rating of the industry and focus on "profit improvement"
The main line mainly includes the traditional white power and small household appliance leaders with sufficient stock price correction and relatively definite profit improvement, such as Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co.Ltd(603187) , Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) , Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) and Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) ; At the same time, the main line of "high growth" is recommended, focusing on the subdivided fields with guaranteed industrial prosperity, such as Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) and Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) ; In addition, it is suggested to actively layout Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) with more obvious expected marginal improvement of beneficiary real estate and the second growth curve; And Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) with the steady growth of the main business of the central air force and the active layout of diversified businesses.
Risk tips
1. The price of raw materials continues to rise sharply;
2. The terminal demand is significantly lower than expected.
